TWG XCII: Welcome Back, Wolfy! (Cancelled)

[Gun92]

Safety on Vic on the chance that I can't get on tomorrow. Just got back from the zoo lights and I'm frozen solid and sore and tired and I'm just going to bed. Ill try to get on after work tomorrow.

[Spyke_MH]

I'll vouch for argo since he did talk to me around that time...sadly though as he stated, no one was really on. It was just me him and the host if I recall x.x

[AC1speakerbox]

Originally Posted by Gun92

the zoo lights

oh.

[Panda Express]

Voting Argo because his posts could be the best reverse-psychology ever.

Its a bad guess, but I'm willing to be a bit gutsy and accusing day 1.

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

"It's time to play. Here I come!"

Originally Posted by iggymatrixcounter

Hey, just wanted to say to the seer that you should build your underground alliance. Each green result is 100%.

Personally I would go to each pick and bounce ideas off them. You could even let each of them know who the other picks are and set up a pretty good mason team that grows every day.

But keep in mind that this would be an UNDERGROUND alliance, you don't have the safety of a guardian this game to make your name public.

Course if you find a wolf, you have options: 1) give the wolf name to a seered green and have him reveal the name to the thread for a kill, thus most likely killing that green player. 2) try to use your alliance members to sway the lynch and keep yourselves in the dark. (Though this does have risks, you can't give off the impression that that is what is happening or you risk compromising 1 or 2 alliance members) 3) do nothing and just hope for the best...... I suggest not doing this personally but even if you do decide to sit on it for awhile, you should do something by day 5 because that's the default auto win day for the wolves. (meaning if a wolf has not been lynched by then, it's game over.)

Also, I doubt the psychic and seer will get a chance to hook up unless the seer seers him. If that's the case, you should be able to plan out the whole game behind the scenes using your team and the psychic.

This whole plan is probably on the minds of most of the players here, but I'm just covering the bases.

In short: seer forms a hidden alliance, does not go public, and uses discretion when trying to lynch a confirmed wolf.

Outside of the huge fence-sitting/stating the obvious, this strategy is pretty mint except for Option 3. Waiting in the wings without acting on your info is a bad idea for a seer, and said seer could have easily eaten it by Day 5. And we’ll have no reliable reports. As soon as one person claims an alliance green, wolves will come out of the woodwork and counterclaim, and while it does have a chance of narrowing the wolf pool, it promotes confusion and misdirection; the general M.O of wolves. Options 1 and 2 are better choices: which one the seer picks is up to him.

On the No-Wolfing:

I think it's either:

A. A trick on the wolves' part to both move suspicion towards inactive players and removing the information inherent in a wolfing from the first day (furthering the chances of a mislynch.) It's a bit out there, but if the wolves have been keeping track of past games, I don't see it as an unreasonable move.

B. Or it could be what AC1 said: there was a lack of correspondence between the wolves and nobody took up the responsibility. I find this less likely though, since everything usually gets done the first night and that's when the wolves lay out their initial plan most of the time.

The Mindless Bandwagon:

I'm beginning to see the infancy of one on FreezinIce. I don't like it. A lurker can be an easy target for a wolf sneakwagon.

As a rule, I don't try to further the lynch of anyone who hasn't had something to say yet. Sometimes inactivity is just the result of laziness or real life events (I speculate it's the former for FreezinIce.) If he's just barely making the activity requirements and coasting through the game with nothing useful to his name, that's active lurking, which is usually deserving of votes. I don't see it here though.

[AC1speakerbox]

Inactive lurking and regular inactivity are both bad though.

Either way, I have started thinking more and more that this was all just a poor attempt at wolf strategy, and (again) I don't think a vet would do this. However, it's certainly not limited to new players at this point.

In addition to that, BDN brings up a good point what with the possible sneakwagon.

I'd keep looking at players who are inactive, but tweak the filter to players who have less than 10 games' experience (which might actually include me-- I'd have to check). =/

[AC1speakerbox]

oh yeah, safety on rawr
just to take my vote off freeze for now

[Brilliant Dynamite Neon]

A Suspicion of a Different Color:

You, AC1, despite the lack of disseminated information, have registered a tiny blip on my wolf radar.

Ac1, earlier in the day you were a part of the wagon, yet you call out temote's flimsy reasoning when you have none yourself.

Then you go on and weakly retract your actions, without taking off your vote (you only do so in your post above, after I speak of the dangers of this wagon)

It has all the strength of a wet wafer, but it's still a case I guess.

Ac1.

[AC1speakerbox]

A very wet wafer

[Temote]

Personally, after talking about it and thinking it over, the only way we can actually say that the wolves were inactive is if at least two of them were out of it and the other didn't want to take initiative. I really can't see a situation where two wolves were both on and neither sent in a kill. x_x

Sunday's are a bit hectic for me, so safety on u84 for now in case I can't make it back today.

[Viccica]

Safety on panda


I personally think you're all reading into it way too far, nevermind jumping the gun on voting freez down. Primarily because he's not the only inactive and because I know I've gotten on, posted and still gotten a phantom. In the same way someone can be active but forget to vote, a wolf could have posted and just figured 'oh well I'll just send a pm in later' and then not get on at all.


Inactivity is a poor, poor reason to vote someone down without at least talking to them once. For all you know we could be voting down an inactive blue. Not saying I think freez is psychic or seer, but.. still.


There was something else I had to say and I forgot what it was... ffff...

[Gun92]

Originally Posted by AC1speakerbox

oh.

Got invited by the gf and family so its one of those things. I'm off to work and like I said, I'll do my best to get on later tonight so I can hopefully try to make a real vote instead of a safety.

[u84]

So because someone doesn't say something Night 1 means they're a wolf? Sense when has this become the standard for voting on Day 1? In fact, I'd say that the majority of players here would make sure they DID post something Night 1 to avoid suspicion because lately, the only thing anyone says day 1 is **** against the inactive. With that in mind, it is possible that the wolves purposely chose not to kill someone night 1 after seeing how many people were inactive. However, I strongly doubt this happened, seeing as regardless how many people were confused by this, it still would take away a very essential kill.

So, TL;DR, look more closely at the active and take in mind AC1's lack of correspondence option.

[u84]

And I was on, dammit. Just hate the "mandatory" Night 1 post just to "prove" you're human. It doesn't prove ****.

[FreezinIce]

Ugh due to unforeseen circumstances i had no access to the computer for the last 4 days. I should be active now though =/.

*reads the thread*

[FreezinIce]

Oh. So the wolves didn't kill anyone and now everyone is looking at the inactive people.

Well like I said, my inactivity was forced and beyond my control. Being online but not posting is one thing, but not being online with no access to the computer knowing you signed up for twg and it probably already started is another thing altogether.

[Ruritsu]

Freeze, because, I'm all for not going KitB.

That said, I'll agree that Ac/U84 have a point in saying "Well, they could be active and just screwed up," however, I'd much prefer we did vote an inactive, seeing as I find it more reasonable to assume that is the reason for the lack of a wolfing. On top of that, its not like anybody has presented a better lynching reason for somebody else.

Originally Posted by Viccica

...jumping the gun on voting freez down. Primarily because he's not the only inactive and because I know I've gotten on, posted and still gotten a phantom. In the same way someone can be active but forget to vote, a wolf could have posted and just figured 'oh well I'll just send a pm in later' and then not get on at all.

No, but he was the most inactive.
Thats the thing, the reason behind being inactive is unimportant. Having a legitimate reason to not be present doesn't change the fact that you weren't present, and that that is suspicious considering the whole no wolfing thing.

As for the rest: Yeah, they could've just forgotten to vote, but why are you reaching that far. You're going out of your way to make a situation other than inactive wolves that still provides a missed wolfing.

For the record, I'm not attacking you Vic, your post just conviniently contained every idea I wanted to respond to, and I figured it'd be easier this way. My suspicion still lies with the most inactive of players is what I'm trying to say.

[Ruritsu]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Oh. So the wolves didn't kill anyone and now everyone is looking at the inactive people.

Well like I said, my inactivity was forced and beyond my control. Being online but not posting is one thing, but not being online with no access to the computer knowing you signed up for twg and it probably already started is another thing altogether.

You ninja'd me Freeze (I went to eat and came back and posted without refreshing the page if anybody wants to question the serious amount of time between the posts =P), and this is what I was talking about in green in the post above. The fact that you have an excuse for being offline doesn't change that that is the most reasonable cause for no wolfing that can be assumed.

[FreezinIce]

I know that the people that were inactive are the most likely people to vote for given the circumstances. I was inactive and due to an unexpected twist I'm paying for it in a way i didn't think possible. All I can say is that I've been set up, and I ask you to consider the other possibilities (Ex: This is a trap) before you barrel on with a plan that will likely get even more humans lynched while the wolves sit back and laugh.

[AC1speakerbox]

I've always thought that the people who are only semi-inactive are more likely to be green because they'll log in, see their pm and say, "well **** that."