Old 06-25-2019, 12:12 PM   #401
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

I mean it's worked pretty well so far considering that that's been one of the main points against me so far this day, with not too much else to back it up.
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Old 06-25-2019, 12:16 PM   #402
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Antori

Im putting this here for now. I didnt vote last time, and I think not voting two days in a row would be a waste.

I think reading that heavily into that one part of Shadow Gods post is just kind of ignoring what anyone else is saying, and I feel like you might just be hoping everyone else is into it enough to get me lynched and maybe give you another night.

I could be wrong, but I need to at least try to act instead of stand idle all day.
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Old 06-25-2019, 12:43 PM   #403
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

GS:

Iíve been busy, alwite? I still donít see it. I read the pages you told me to read a couple more times, and I donít see it. Youíre trying to trick me by posting pages of long posts of TWG-lingo words. ďItís in there. If you donít see it, that means youíre not paying attention/youíre inactive/youíre really bad at this game, and it has nothing to do with the fact that I canít actually summarize my thoughts. Go back and read it a couple more times until you finally understand, itís in there.Ē

Sanzath:

Where you said Shadowís vote came from is the exact reason I canít find it. Itís just random, lucky votes. Gotcha. But that also means all my previous reads are garbage because theyíre based on the random, lucky votes.

Nah, Antori and dragon are no longer my vote. My voteís for goldenstinger.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:01 PM   #404
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by sanzath View Post
MN I see you reading the fucking thread

just

post please

I beg you
hiya

Yesterday, instead of sleeping I was thinking about this whole thing. I promise I will make a reads list before the end of the day in case I get killed.

Right now, I'm trying to shift my thinking to mechanics, and this is affecting the way I post. As I was falling asleep, my mind was going adrift and I had a bunch of ideas. I'll list them in 3 separate posts, I hope they make as much sense now as they did to me yesterday.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:01 PM   #405
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Thought #1 : A dead wolf's reads list

Because of the number of wolves in this game, this reads list from Shadow_God_10 is the only opportunity we will have at looking into a confirmed wolf's mind (before the end of the game):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 View Post
Have a bullshit reads list that I summoned via demonic circle:

Mario- I'm wolf leaning because you've been all over the place and a little aggressive imo (I'm pretty sure I'm the only one thinking that)
Sanzath- More than likely town. +1 for the Haku wisdom you blessed us with
Yoshi- I have no idea who you are which makes it weird, not to mention you were prepared to sling Dragon to the sun for not even posting once. I'm very conflicted about you. Null for now
Antori- Probably not a wolf but if he's lurking in the shadows as one, he completely forgot to make his own presence known to all of us which I think is suspect
Raeko- AFK Raeko is probably beneficial for us newer players so that way she doesn't come swooping in to massacre us all.
Sven- You're town as fuck. You've been really helpful for the newer players and I, for one appreciate it a lot
GS- Dicks. Butts. and Dicks. You're a chaotic towny who would steal from his own villages candy supply.
Dragon- I had you as a wolf who wasn't sure how to react at first, but you opened up to us which made things way better for you. I'm very convinced you're town.


If I have to vote, then I'm probably going to say Antori because of potential bad play.
Before we read into this list, we must determine what was Shadow_God_10's as he was posting it.

Before we do, some facts:
* The list was posted 5.75 hours before his lynch
* At the time of his post, the votes were:
shadowgod (2)- Sven, Mario
dragonmega (1)- Shy
gold stinger (1)- antori
unvote- dragonmega, gold stinger, sanzath


Was Shadow_God_10 trying to save his own skin?
Surely. Reads look good in general, and he was probably hoping either H&H and/or I would remove our votes on him. The votes on him at that point weren't based on deep arguments: H&H voted right out of the gates, and I voted Shadow_God because his tone seemed "off" (aka nothing concrete, I wanted him to post just to get a better idea of his tone). In theory, the vote switch could have happened: H&H's vote for Shadow_God was during his 3rd post, which was the 5th post of the entire game. I believe H&H is the only one who aimed at the same person for the entirety of d0, so Shadow_God was probably hoping H&H would "be reasonable" and do like everyone else, which is to move their vote around. As for me, I switched votes a lot during d0, so Shadow_God was probably still feeling rather safe. I think the only point at which he felt in danger is when he posted
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 View Post
Welp.
just 1h10m before the deadline, at which point he went after gold stinger, probably thinking "There's no way I'm getting through this by arguing, so I'll use votes instead".
Was Shadow_God_10 trying to shift blame?
What I think: Probably. He did list me as wolf. Unless I'm mistaken, the only other person who had me as a wolf lean was Hateandhatred. I think Shadow_God was trying to get a bus rolling, but it never worked.

The other wolf leans Shadow_God had in his list were Yoshi and Antori.

Shadow_God and Antori: They had a bit of back and forth, with Antori's defense only being
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antori View Post
whenever i try to explain my reads people jump on me and now it gave me ptsd.

goldstinger because this isn't his usual town meta i saw him play before, he's alot more"cautious" than i'm used to him.

yoshi because of low effort he'd done.
And for some reason this was automatically satisfactory for Shadow_God, who went on to pressure Yoshi right after.

Sanzath actually pointed at this interaction:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanzath View Post
big post but

I feel like the interaction between shadowgod and antori feels kinda manufactured? Like, if they're together in wolfchat, they could have come up with that entire sequence beforehand in an attempt to say "hey let's interact together to draw away suspicion". Idk, it feels fake to me.

Anyone else see it?
I agree that it feels odd, kind of like "there and done". No one else had the time to step into that interaction.

Shadow_God and Yoshi: Still null, no interaction at all from what I can see.


Was Shadow_God_10 protecting his wolf partner?
That's the million dollar question... Since he was "wolf leaning" me, I'm tempted to say that, yes, he was protecting his partner. He made this list 5.75 hours before getting lynched, hence he probably did not expect to die. He must have felt relatively safe. He either posted this list and expected his problems to go away, or he expected to die (!?) and posted this list to throw us off on d1.

Was Shadow_God_10 trying to create/join a bandwagon?
I think what was going on in Shadow_God_10's mind was what he could create a "tie" by voting for Gold Stinger. In fact, that's what he attempted 30 mins before the lynch, but because GS was able to shift his vote, Shadow_God perished. Shadow_God could have chosen dragonmegaXX or Hateandhatred (Sanzath had a vote on H&H at that point), but Shadow_God opted for GS for some reason. I believe this was a bad decision on Shadow_God's part, because
* In my opinion, GS was much more convincing as a town during d0 than dragonmegaXX. The reason Shadow_God gave for voting GS was:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 View Post
Something about you felt a little off and I was really confused here hold on...I'm gonna go back really fucking quick here
(of course, he never came back)
* If dragonmegaXX is the wolf, Shadow_God could have taken the opportunity to distance himself from the wolf, or possibly even take credit for their lynch.

While I have my reasons to say it was a bad play, Shadow_God was probably not being careless. Do the points above suggest Shadow_God had an agenda when posting for GS?

-> If GS and dragonmegaXX were both town: Shadow_God should have voted for dragonmegaXX. It would have been much easier for him to start a bandwagon and would have probably spared his life. He should have known dragonmegaXX is not active and hadn't cast a single vote at that point, making it a smaller risk.

-> If GS is wolf: Shadow_God would be pulling a reverse psychology on us. This would mean that GS is a freaking alpha wolf for being the final nail in the coffin of his partner. This play is way too risky in my opinion. I list it here for completedness, but I don't see this happening.

-> If dragonmegaXX is wolf: Shadow_God's only way to escape elimination is to vote for the only other town in the lynch pool. Seems more probable than GS as wolf.

?? What if Shadow_God had voted for Hateandhatred? That would have been the worst case scenario for towns at d1, because there would be no new information to extract (both are dead).


My takeaway:
- This makes dragonmegaXX and Antori look bad.
- Yoshi comes out 100% Null. Again. And I don't like that.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:01 PM   #406
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Thought #2 : When a wolf gives up
One set of posts that I couldn't get out of my head after the lynch was this one:

(6 minutes before deadline)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 View Post
Something about you felt a little off and I was really confused here hold on...I'm gonna go back really fucking quick here
(4 mintues before deadline)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10 View Post
No I'm gonna keep it the way it is. I'm outtie! I'll catch you guys in the Post Game/Deadchat.
We go from
* Hey guys gimme a sec I can prove I'm innocent
to
* bye, I give up, see you next game, (soon you will know I'm a wolf and I'm ok with this)

There has to be a reason between this sudden switch in tone. I'll try to explore some of them

* Wolf chat interaction (aka "STFU, let me take it from here")
To me, this seems very probable. I can picture it in my head:
Quote:
------------ Wolf Chat ---------------
shadow: Holy shit there's only 4 minutes left
wolf: That's not enough time you'll get lynched
shadow: No I'll come up with something, find some quotes I can use, we can probably move some votes
wolf: I don't think they're going to buy it. If you give additional reads and fail to survive, you'll probably incriminate me in d1. I can't take that risk.
shadow: Alright dammit, good luck
wolf: Thanks, I can manage
------------ /Wolf Chat ---------------
If we want to believe this option, I think it gives a certain character to the other wolf:
* Planning for the next days of the game, worrying that some slips might get out during eod
* Confident that they're better off playing alone than risking being handicapped with a slip

Overall, to me this just screams "Veteran wolf", someone who has rolled wolf before, or has seen enough games to see where that eod was headed. Someone active enough to catch Shadow_God in mid-air and prevent them from spilling some beans.

Looking at our set of players, this would put some light on:
- Gold Stinger (hate to list him, because I like GS very much this game, but if he was wolf this is how I think he would play it)
- Melloncollie
- Sanzath



* Shadow_God_10 just didn't feel like playing anymore?
Maybe no one told Shadow_God to give up.

Maybe he had just had enough.
He told us he had had health problems the day before, so he could have been recovering. Maybe he was getting too stressed out and he started to feel physically ill.

However, I doubt that Shadow_God hara-kiri'd out of lack of interest. His last post says "I'll catch you guys in the Post Game/Deadchat.", meaning he's excited for the game to end so that he can be able to discuss it in more details later on.

Anyway, if this option was the case, it probably invalidates the option above, so it's worth considering if this was Shadow_God's state of mind at eod.

My takeaway:
If we read correctly Shadow_God's quoted posts above, we might be able to understand what kind of wolf partner we're dealing with.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:02 PM   #407
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Thought #3 : There's only one wolf left
I think this is the first time I'm in a game where there's only one wolf left standing. This got me thinking about how the mechanics change from this point on. The wolf is now unable to communicate with a teammate, both in the thread or in the secret wolf chat. This got me thinking.

We are all town except for one wold
This is a big change in mechanics. Fewer moving parts. The wolf has no possibility to vote or distance themself from their wolf partner from this point on. The only way a wolf can look good right now is by:
* Providing believable town reads (which should be easy, because the wolf knows anyone and everyone around them is town)
* Arguing a townie out of a lynch (which will always happen if they try)

I think "town reading" each other will give us a false sense of security. If I was a wolf on d1, I would try to make as little waves as possible: being invisible. It's easier to do this by "town reading" people than by "wolf reading" them. I think the wolf will still do their best to jump on a mislynch bus, but on d1 it seems risky.

This is why I delayed my posting a bit, I didn't want to overly influence the wolf's strategy.

Conclusion: To find the wolf this phase, I'll look at users who are
* easy going
* making obvious town reads (possibly to get people to agree with them and find them not menacing)

... I'll also be looking at people who seem to change personality after this specific post.

[b]How can a lonely wolf earn town's trust?
The wolf is in a tough position:
* All of their "town reads" will be correct
* ... But all of their "wolf reads" will be wrong

Thus, I believe the wolf will make as little reads as possible, not to leave any traces (especially if, after reading my Thought #2, we think we're dealing with a wolf who cares about slips).

I think that, if pressured, this wolf will give reads, possibly on all current players, but with no pressure, I don't see an incentive for them to give some bs reads (unless they are veteran, planned ahead and did exactly this). I also think that this post will influence the wolf's behavior, so I'll stay on the lookout for this.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:03 PM   #408
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Errata:
in thought 1:
Before we read into this list, we must determine what was Shadow_God_10's intent as he was posting it.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:10 PM   #409
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Errata:
in thought 2
In the wolfchat, I meant "shadow" to say only 6 minutes left

in thought 3
We are all town except for one wolf
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:11 PM   #410
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Yeah I didn't preview my posts, lol
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:21 PM   #411
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShyYoshiGuy View Post
GS:

Iíve been busy, alwite? I still donít see it. I read the pages you told me to read a couple more times, and I donít see it. Youíre trying to trick me by posting pages of long posts of TWG-lingo words. ďItís in there. If you donít see it, that means youíre not paying attention/youíre inactive/youíre really bad at this game, and it has nothing to do with the fact that I canít actually summarize my thoughts. Go back and read it a couple more times until you finally understand, itís in there.Ē

Sanzath:

Where you said Shadowís vote came from is the exact reason I canít find it. Itís just random, lucky votes. Gotcha. But that also means all my previous reads are garbage because theyíre based on the random, lucky votes.

Nah, Antori and dragon are no longer my vote. My voteís for goldenstinger.
I don't think gold stinger is the wolf....
But if my earlier reasoning is correct, I don't think you're wolf either.

Really, one scenario I'm seeing here that ticks all the boxes is melloncollie

* Doesn't post a lot
* Town reads everyone (she did ask Antori to defend themself, but melloncollie never made a flat-out wolf read)
* Is the most likely to tell Shadow_God to STFU in wolf chat as illustrated in my thought #2
* I can see Shadow_God reacting within 2 minutes to melloncollie telling him to STFU


(melloncollie probably didn't use the words STFU, but you get the idea)
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:28 PM   #412
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* Doesn't post a lot
When I say "doesn't post a lot", I was mostly referring to d0. She did post a bit more (as she promised she would) in d1, so the inactivity doesn't factor in at this point in my opinion.

Rather, it has more to do with the fact that every post seems to very much go with the flow. It just stands out even more considering how limited her post count is.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:29 PM   #413
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:56 PM   #414
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarioNintendo View Post
I don't think gold stinger is the wolf....
But if my earlier reasoning is correct, I don't think you're wolf either.

Really, one scenario I'm seeing here that ticks all the boxes is melloncollie

* Doesn't post a lot
* Town reads everyone (she did ask Antori to defend themself, but melloncollie never made a flat-out wolf read)
* Is the most likely to tell Shadow_God to STFU in wolf chat as illustrated in my thought #2
* I can see Shadow_God reacting within 2 minutes to melloncollie telling him to STFU


(melloncollie probably didn't use the words STFU, but you get the idea)
Sounds good enough. melloncollie
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:00 PM   #415
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

Why do you agree with me?

Remember, I have you on a wolf lean. I don't like driving a wagon with you on board
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:01 PM   #416
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

See my thought #1
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:03 PM   #417
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Quote:
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Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think
Honestly wowíd with how much thought you put into that. The only thing I thought odd was that you said I seemed in the top two most suspicious people in thought one, but then in thought two you said you found the people who were town reading the hardest were the ones who should auspicious, when Iíve spent today mainly just trying to defend myself. Though that could just be because I donít have much faith in turning out reads right now, and also Iím just prone to focusing on myself in this kind of scenario anyways.
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:04 PM   #418
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Default Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Who should be suspicious* typing on mobile with have the text box visible is fun.
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:04 PM   #419
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wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

Why do you agree with me?

Remember, I have you on a wolf lean. I don't like driving a wagon with you on board
Everyone seems to trust you and your arguments sound good.
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Old 06-25-2019, 02:07 PM   #420
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Honestly wowíd with how much thought you put into that. The only thing I thought odd was that you said I seemed in the top two most suspicious people in thought one, but then in thought two you said you found the people who were town reading the hardest were the ones who should auspicious, when Iíve spent today mainly just trying to defend myself. Though that could just be because I donít have much faith in turning out reads right now, and also Iím just prone to focusing on myself in this kind of scenario anyways.
Try to explore different scenarios, that's why I separated my thoughts into different posts. They sometimes suggest different explanations to similar phenomenons.

1) I listed you as wolf because of Shadow_God's reads on you.

2) I listed (and eventually voted) for melloncollie because she behaves in a way I think fits a wolf at this point in the game.


1) is based on evidence we're not fully sure how to interpret (maybe it's not even evidence)
2) is based on gut and pattern recognition.

Either one could be right. I'm listing everything I can in case I get killed.
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