TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

[tiloco217]

I leave in 30 minutes. I think that Cel's reads list was good in that it was a very good collection of all of his thoughts. Everything he said was something that I remember him saying before and it all fit together fairly well. I don't think he's a terrible lynch even still but I think best would be Manti. Blind is also fairly good. I don't want sound or WV killed today but if it happens it won't be awful. Never kill Xiz, Ind, or DBP today.

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by inDheart

in 2132? i didn't really mean that as a critique, just trying to figure out what you were thinking around yesterday when i asked you about voting xel (i think it was like 2 hours before deadline by that point)

Apologies; I didn't take it as a critique, more felt bad if I missed something specific. Around that time I admittedly was not terribly in the lynch Xel wagon, I tunneled a bit hard on Tiloco and Tokzic (if my timeline was correct) at that time, and before Tokzic even came into play I was tunneling a bit hard on Tiloco.


I fear I might be tunneling on Manti a bit right now, by reading over my reads list; a lot of what I say somewhat relies on him being red.

[tiloco217]

To be clear I don't think Manti is extremely mafia. I think he is just the most likely to be given the Xiz scenario I brought up a few hours ago. I don't think wagons developing on anyone that I haven't cleared is a necessarily bad thing.

[tiloco217]

I actually forgot that tokzic existed. The only reason I flipped back on him was because of the votes on him which don't look as bad now. Maybe I should leave my vote there

[tiloco217]

going to do a quick iso

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

To be clear I don't think Manti is extremely mafia. I think he is just the most likely to be given the Xiz scenario I brought up a few hours ago. I don't think wagons developing on anyone that I haven't cleared is a necessarily bad thing.

If you couldn't tell by my analysis, I don't think anyone is extremely mafia right now; this is a tough game.

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Celirra

1) inDheart

I'm gonna put InD under the category of "I'm gonna come back to this one", but he's mostly okay for now. 38%

first off, Wheat is an interesting name for that color

1531 was a look into posts about haku that ended up not being very useful for me - i was trying to see if people were buttering up to have him as a potential mislynch this game. i'm not thinking about it much anymore since he was nightkilled instead, so i guess the use left in that post would be to see whether people were just handing him a free town pass in order to set him up for that kill

also binch i was first on the xel wagon, outside of mml being on him earlier in the day and then moving to blind for a while

Originally Posted by Celirra

2) MixMasterLar

6%

agree with the result and the reasons for it, not sure why you hedged so much on treating his interactions with blind given the conclusion you got to

Originally Posted by Celirra

4) Xiz

I recall him forgetting OP once as if he maybe didn't care enough to read the potential setups, which might be part of whats giving people a bad feeling of him potentially being wolf, implying he knows the setup so he doesn't need to be worried? But I doubt that's it.

14%

leaving this bit in just because i wanna say popping out with something saying "oh man there must be millers" is not what i would expect as a towny reaction. as manti's already kind of retorted to me, if you're claiming a role you can find a way of getting out that you have info related to that role, which is not something that tiloco did. it's a read he had developed across the day

perhaps he doesn't read as genuine to me as he does to you though - if you have another favorite example besides those two, i'm all ears, because analyzing the xel wagon (1813) has been done by a few people since, and i think xiz still wants to resolve among people not on it (it's blind and someone, can't remember the second someone)

like if that's the case, i wouldn't count it as a post in xiz's favor

Originally Posted by Celirra

5) Tokzic

10%

i still want him to show up but sure

Originally Posted by Celirra

6) tiloco217

The horse doesn't even have blood left to beat out of it anymore.

0%, I've explained why already.

yup

Originally Posted by Celirra

7) DarkManticoreX2

Something that set off a serious case of the frowny faces to you was #1458 to #1526; that shift is *weird* to me. I regret not bringing attention to it sooner; I'm not sure if anyone else had, sorry if so.

68%

i think this is explained by 1557 where he wants real wagons and is getting on one of them (he was moving off tiloco)

Originally Posted by Celirra

8) blindreper1179

55%

blind doesn't strike me as the type who prefers info lynches so 1821 ("Xel flip tells us nothing") reads weird to me in that sense

Originally Posted by Celirra

9) Wayward Vagabond

47%

nah i disagree with this, he's good when he's around and your standards for his play seem high

Originally Posted by Celirra

10) DaBackPack

That said, I think MML and Xiz are contributing more, and Tokzic potentially could too I think and has shown signs to.

19%

what's up with mentioning these other people in your dbp read?

Originally Posted by Celirra

11) Soundwave-

50%

long way of saying he's the ultimate potato/cheesecake/(insert yoshl favorite choice of food here) but yeah

not a lot of spicy vindaloo thoughts here/the ones that are i could use some help understanding

[tiloco217]

Not too tough imo. Nobody is clearly mafia but I have 3 town I am very strong on. Assuming one kill per night that leaves us with 4 lynches across 6 people to find 3 mafia. Not bad odds especially considering there is probably another role somewhere.

I need to leave now actually. I am going to leave my vote on Tokzic. He did say he was going to have a big effort post and I'm going to trust you guys to interpret that. Order of kills for me is probs: Tokzic, Manti, Cel, Blind, Sound, WV

[DarkManticoreX2]

Working on a good reads list.

Would like to point out I'm getting pushed by pretty much everyone from soundwave to Tiloco here. If the tokzic vote skeeved you out yesterday this should as well.

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

And I like how I'm null, sound is woof, yet I'm a higher lynch candidate?....

cel/blind unaligned?

the sense i'm getting from people talking today is among those left in the game, there's
- people who have trouble clearing themselves and we just don't know about
- unresolved business from yesterday
and both of these together have created a decent size pool of people to sort out and it's hard

which makes cel's reads list interesting to me in that he has few strong wolves, but the way he's mapping the game state is in line with those two things

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by tiloco217

I need to leave now actually. I am going to leave my vote on Tokzic. He did say he was going to have a big effort post and I'm going to trust you guys to interpret that. Order of kills for me is probs: Tokzic, Manti, Cel, Blind, Sound, WV

i guessssss this makes sense in a world where xiz is now town because you'd been skeeved out by his voters before

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Xiz

If WV is a wolf, who are his partners?

i hate this kind of post btw because it implies wv is clear of partnerships, in which case i would say, show me the evidence for that

[Celirra]

@InD (I'd quote but that would be a tad bit of a mess)

I'll go in order of what I find important:

I mentioned others in DBP read just for the sake of comparison, because I realized at around that point people would be a bit confused about how %'s and reads aren't always aligned (see: blind a couple posts ago). Admittedly DBP is hard for me to read which is why there isn't a ton, but what I have seen is fairly towny. Comparison to others seemed like the logical step to further thoughts on him in that regard, seeing as the list was 1) reads and 2) who I think should be lynched tiers

About Blind and #1821, I don't know metas much at all really, especially not for blind, so I can't say; I'm sticking by that from what I know, because I do largely think meta reads are a bit silly anyways. I can see where you're coming from though, and it's noted if nothing else.

About Manti: That's a bit post-mortem and late don't you think for a justification for a flip that big; I might be making a mountain of a molehill here, but... well, even that aside Manti is still a bit fishy.

I'll try to get back to you on the Xiz front; there's another example from d0 (I think?) that struck me as somewhat towny, but I might be misremembering.. if you hear nothing, assume I'm probably in the wrong, but either way I wouldn't lean him wolf, and at the worst for him he'd be town lean still.

In regards to MML, it was more of a write-as-I-go analysis, and I was moreorless scribing my thoughts.

Stances still didn't change for the whole much at all other than maybe Xiz a tad but that's still up in the air, but I'll admit that I probably could've been a bit more aggressive. I guess I don't have it all that in me this game to be incredibly firm.. I'm having a wee bit of a tough time.

[Celirra]

also even though I'm leaning him town and justified his absense, I'll still be a bit pruned if DBP doesn't come here soon!!!!! :grumpy:

[inDheart]

man, i like blind's posts on this page more than other things he's done in the game though

those read like raw thoughts rather than totally weird ones

[DarkManticoreX2]

About the vote flip from 1458 to 1526, I was indeed moving onto a wagon i thought would move, but I had also come around on Tokzic that phase. I wanted to pressure DBP into the thread so he didn't abandon the game like he is doing right now.

Additionally I had/still have a Tokzic theory floating around in the back of my head that I don't want to talk much about and have been operating on since mid D2.

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Celirra

About Blind and #1821, I don't know metas much at all really, especially not for blind, so I can't say; I'm sticking by that from what I know, because I do largely think meta reads are a bit silly anyways. I can see where you're coming from though, and it's noted if nothing else.

i have zero forum meta with blind outside of this game (i think that's true for many people in this game)

based on his earlier posting and relating it to the Roundboxian Bible principle of consistency, 1821 does not fit into the same mold that his more emotional posting in early game and on this page does. i don't think he would be someone to argue against a lynch on information grounds for that reason because it seems out of the character he's established in this game.

[Celirra]

Tokzic theory: can you at least label it one as painting Tokzic as wolf or town?

[inDheart]

only problem with gin and tonic right now is i wanted to cook later

oh well

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by inDheart

i have zero forum meta with blind outside of this game (i think that's true for many people in this game)

based on his earlier posting and relating it to the Roundboxian Bible principle of consistency, 1821 does not fit into the same mold that his more emotional posting in early game and on this page does. i don't think he would be someone to argue against a lynch on information grounds for that reason because it seems out of the character he's established in this game.

That's fair; I'll go back over and ponder it for a bit.
How would you consider Blind then? I feel like you may have alluded to it prior, but if you wouldn't mind maybe... posting a case comparing how thoughts might differ depending on which of us is right on this stance, that'd be nifty.

I guess I'm really just curious how this point you're picking up would affect your stance if at all