Go Back   Flash Flash Revolution > General Discussion > Chit Chat

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-19-2014, 09:02 PM   #1
gold stinger
Signature Extraordinare~~
Song Submission & Events Manager
Game ManagerEvent StaffSimfile JudgeFFR Wiki StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
gold stinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Age: 28
Posts: 6,365
Send a message via Skype™ to gold stinger
Default How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

I'm thinking around 4-5 years, placing my bets on May of 2019.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
butts.



- Tosh 2014






gold stinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2014, 09:21 PM   #2
Jousway
FFR Player
 
Jousway's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 865
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

how long do you think we have 2,000,000 active members that play ffr

I'm thinking about never
__________________
Its not a bug its a FEATURE!



Jousway is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2014, 09:27 PM   #3
gold stinger
Signature Extraordinare~~
Song Submission & Events Manager
Game ManagerEvent StaffSimfile JudgeFFR Wiki StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
gold stinger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Age: 28
Posts: 6,365
Send a message via Skype™ to gold stinger
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

if we had 2,000,000 people using FFR all at the same time FFR would crash.

It's bad enough as it is sometimes during tournaments.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
butts.



- Tosh 2014






gold stinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2014, 09:33 PM   #4
Jousway
FFR Player
 
Jousway's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 865
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

also how many of these members are legit members, excluding

alts
bots
yaboy's 200 alt collection
__________________
Its not a bug its a FEATURE!



Jousway is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2014, 09:45 PM   #5
choof
Banned
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 8,563
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

yaboy, blazze...

..me
choof is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2014, 09:55 PM   #6
Charu
Snivy! Dohoho!
FFR Simfile AuthorFFR Veteran
 
Charu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Age: 33
Posts: 6,161
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jousway View Post
how long do you think we have 2,000,000 active members that play ffr

I'm thinking about never
I award this post the Thread Killer McMuffington Scum
__________________


Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnRedWolf87 View Post
Charu the red-nosed Snivy
Had a very shiny nose
And if you ever saw it
You could even say it glows

All of the other Snivies
Used to laugh and call him names
They never let poor Charu
Join in any Snivy games

(Click the arrow to see the rest)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendetta21 View Post
All in all I would say that Charu not only won this game, his play made me reconsider how I play it.
Charu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-19-2014, 11:23 PM   #7
blindreper1179
Vice President Of TGB
FFR Veteran
 
blindreper1179's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: repping tha D!
Age: 35
Posts: 5,891
Send a message via AIM to blindreper1179 Send a message via Skype™ to blindreper1179
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Where's blazze, anaru, and yaboy at? We could have 2mil accounts by Christmas.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesunfan View Post
absolutely I want to vomit on your face irl
Quote:
Originally Posted by choof View Post
It was like trying to throw logic at a fuckin brick wall lmao
Quote:
Originally Posted by choof View Post
whats more dense, a black hole or an icyworld file
Quote:
Originally Posted by Celirra View Post
I've never been so disappointed by a man from Alabama than I am right now
blindreper1179 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 12:31 AM   #8
MarioNintendo
Expect delays.
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorFFR Music ProducerFFR Veteran
 
MarioNintendo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Montreal, QC
Age: 31
Posts: 4,117
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

To me, 3.5 years seems reasonable, since that seems like the amount of time it took to add 100,000 accounts to the counter.
__________________
Click here to download my complete works!




Quote:
Originally Posted by macgravel View Post
Mario's files are top notch, so every time he submits a file I get excited in my pants.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi19hi19 View Post
This guy, MarioNintendo?
Click the bricks


MarioNintendo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 12:34 AM   #9
gstarfire
FFR Player
FFR Veteran
 
gstarfire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Somebody go tell Rapta
__________________
gstarfire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 03:54 AM   #10
Izzy
Snek
FFR Simfile AuthorFFR Veteran
 
Izzy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Kansas
Age: 33
Posts: 9,192
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

I bet there are less than 100,000 legit individual users registered.
Izzy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 04:20 AM   #11
ItsOnlyDanO
Stuck in the past
FFR Simfile AuthorFFR Veteran
 
ItsOnlyDanO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Portsmouth, UK
Age: 28
Posts: 1,168
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

2024
__________________
Ghosts appear and fade away.......
ItsOnlyDanO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 08:41 AM   #12
Skullbac
Definitively Not Pro
FFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
Skullbac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Quebec city
Age: 22
Posts: 167
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

A few months maybe?
Skullbac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 09:07 AM   #13
choof
Banned
Retired StaffFFR Simfile AuthorD7 Elite KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 8,563
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Izzy View Post
I bet there are less than 100,000 legit individual users registered.
you're not one of them
choof is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 09:13 AM   #14
Jousway
FFR Player
 
Jousway's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 865
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Izzy View Post
I bet there are less than 100,000 legit individual users registered.
+1
__________________
Its not a bug its a FEATURE!



Jousway is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 09:24 AM   #15
noname219
FFR Wiki Admin
Wiki Administrator
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
noname219's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Quebec, Canada
Age: 33
Posts: 1,694
Send a message via Skype™ to noname219
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

April 24th, 2016 will be the day we hit 2 millions
noname219 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 10:27 AM   #16
Zapmeister
FFR Player
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: England
Posts: 466
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

member 1.75M is 3.75 years old
member 1.775M is 3.29 years old
member 1.8M is 2.67 years old
member 1.825M is 2.08 years old
member 1.85M is 1.4 years old
member 1.875M is 0.96 years old
member 1.9M is 0.12 years old

plug it into a linear regression calculator and you get that you expect 2 million members in 2.17 years from now, which is mid-february 2017

/geek
__________________

Theorem: If you have a large enough number of monkeys, and a large enough number of computer keyboards, one of them will sight-read AAA death piano on stealth. And the ffr community will forever worship it. Proof Example

ask me anything here

mashed FCs: 329

r1: 5
r2: 4
r3: 6
r4: 8
r5: 3
r6: 5
r7: 15
final position: 4th
Zapmeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 11:24 AM   #17
Trumpet63
Mostly Ignored
Skill Rating Designer
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Trumpet63's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 471
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zapmeister View Post
member 1.75M is 3.75 years old
member 1.775M is 3.29 years old
member 1.8M is 2.67 years old
member 1.825M is 2.08 years old
member 1.85M is 1.4 years old
member 1.875M is 0.96 years old
member 1.9M is 0.12 years old

plug it into a linear regression calculator and you get that you expect 2 million members in 2.17 years from now, which is mid-february 2017

/geek
But what's the R squared?
Did we accept or reject the null hypothesis?
__________________
2014 October 7th 1:03 AM

Zageron: Trumpet
Trumpet63: yes, im here
Zageron: You have a problem.
Trumpet63 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 12:19 PM   #18
_Zenith_
Accuracy Player
Retired StaffD8 Godly KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
_Zenith_'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Connecticut
Age: 28
Posts: 4,628
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

With people like Preggers, we'll hit that milestone easily in the next year, I won't even give it a full year to be honest
__________________




_Zenith_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 12:30 PM   #19
xXOpkillerXx
Forever OP
Simfile JudgeFFR Simfile AuthorD8 Godly KeysmasherFFR Veteran
 
xXOpkillerXx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Canada,Quebec
Age: 28
Posts: 4,167
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Better change this thread to "Name people with alts"
xXOpkillerXx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 12:32 PM   #20
Zapmeister
FFR Player
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: England
Posts: 466
Default Re: How long do you all think it will be until we hit 2,000,000 members?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trumpet63 View Post
But what's the R squared?
Did we accept or reject the null hypothesis?
ok i'm not sure if you're being serious with this post, or (as i suspect) whether you've just finished taking a statistics class and decided to fling words around on here to make yourself look smart, but just in case:

if you want the r^2 value then put the numbers into the online calculator i linked and press the calculate button and scroll down.

linear regression is the wrong test to use for hypothesis testing here. that's because the number of accounts has got to go up with time, which is a causal factor that you're ignoring when you do the test. what you should be doing is testing whether the new accounts are generated at a constant rate, and if you want to do that using only the data i've given you, you do a chi-squared goodness-of-fit. but in this case there's no point in doing that because if you stare at the numbers and don't blink for a few seconds, you'll notice that hell will freeze over and leonardo dicaprio will win an oscar before a poisson process would generate numbers like this. obviously a fixed rate poisson process is far too strong a condition to use here, but there's not much that can be done except assume linearity and go for the trend line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by _Zenith_ View Post
With people like Preggers, we'll hit that milestone easily in the next year, I won't even give it a full year to be honest
haha yeah he was talking to me about this in prochat a while back. xelnya (i think) said give it 2 months and he'll get there :P
__________________

Theorem: If you have a large enough number of monkeys, and a large enough number of computer keyboards, one of them will sight-read AAA death piano on stealth. And the ffr community will forever worship it. Proof Example

ask me anything here

mashed FCs: 329

r1: 5
r2: 4
r3: 6
r4: 8
r5: 3
r6: 5
r7: 15
final position: 4th
Zapmeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright FlashFlashRevolution