TWG 195 - D6

[Shadow_God_10]

Just checked your list Freezin.

Did you list the three you have from "Most likely to" downwards? or is it in no particular order?

[Bolth mannn]

Last night sort of makes sense when you consider that if literally anyone other than Shadow is the wolf, they knew they had a free shot to try and get whoever the other PR is, because we all knew exactly who Xiz intended to block. Seems like an unnecessary risk though, when they could have gotten rid of Xiz and played the long game, if they are supposedly part of the town core. My opinion is they are in the scum pile, and killed Zenith to incite chaos, and put some towncore back into the firing range.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Just checked your list Freezin.

Did you list the three you have from "Most likely to" downwards? or is it in no particular order?

no order when i made the post.

Though gun to my head i would say plop and choof are more likely than sunfan to be the wolf

[Bolth mannn]

Though I would REALLY love it if Choof and Xel came in and confirmed whether or not they vigi shot zenith

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn

Last night sort of makes sense when you consider that if literally anyone other than Shadow is the wolf, they knew they had a free shot to try and get whoever the other PR is, because we all knew exactly who Xiz intended to block. Seems like an unnecessary risk though, when they could have gotten rid of Xiz and played the long game, if they are supposedly part of the town core. My opinion is they are in the scum pile, and killed Zenith to incite chaos, and put some towncore back into the firing range.

wat

this makes no sense for like 2 reasons

reason 1 is theres no such thing as a free shot because everyone has to die. If I was a wolf and i was not townread, the optimal path to my survival is not picking from the pool im in (People who are suspicious) to make it smaller and make it more likely that ill be outted from it and killed. The optimal play is killing the townread people who just by existing make it more likely ill die with each passing day. which brings up

Reason 2: There is no guarentee the last PR was not also one of the townread people. Barring some kind of PR read on someone its equal odds all the way around.

Putting aside the fact that i personally believe only someone who isnt under pressure could afford to take a PR shot here instead of improve their own position, killing zenith does nothing to put the towncore back into fire range as you said.

Well except what im doing right now with the list.

[FreezinIce]

ok i lost the thread halfway thru but let me pick it up

So preface this by saying that after marinading on it i can see the logic in not killing xiz specifically. He was not a threat (at least last night). Both townread!wolf and scumread!wolf would agree on that point.

So townread!wolf would that specific night want the other PR dead. Killing in the towncore doesnt make that much sense unless they have a PR read there

scumread!wolf COULD PR hunt as well. thats why im not uber confident with my list as of now. A lot of moving parts go into a nightkill so hanging my hat on my list would be dumb. THAT BEING SAID, Reducing the pool of suspicious people is not beneficial. My goal should be to kill as many people who are townread as possible so the pool that im a part of makes up the majority of players, to minimize my chances of being roleblocked/seered/vigi'd and also my chances of being lynched.

Hopefully that is a better explaination

[FreezinIce]

lol shifted into the first person halfway through.

[FreezinIce]

hopefully what im saying makes sense to people other than me

[Wayward Vagabond]

What if you're the wolf though :thinking:

[Bolth mannn]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

killing zenith does nothing to put the towncore back into fire range as you said.

Well except what im doing right now with the list.

thats what I mean

sorry im not explaining myself well

I feel like all of these are viable thought patterns as a wolf

- I'm safe at the moment but I have an opportunity to get rid of Xiz who is a danger to me and I absolutely should do that and then I can chill out in towncore the rest of the game and try to find the other PR!

- I'm being pretty heavily scumread, maybe if I make a confusing kill, people will think I wasn't feeling pressured, and will start to consider towncore that they wouldn't have otherwise considered.

- I'm safe tonight and probably tomorrow night too, I should try and get rid of the other PR, without considering how that makes me look!

- I'm being pretty heavily scumread, maybe I should kill people attacking me in hopes that I get less pressured in future phases!

[Wayward Vagabond]

I like where your head is at. If there is a vig will it be worth entertaining the idea of vig and wolf targeting the same person?

[Bolth mannn]

And my argument is that an experienced player would absolutely consider how a kill would look, hence, number 3 doesnt seem right to me

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn

thats what I mean

sorry im not explaining myself well

I feel like all of these are viable thought patterns as a wolf

- I'm safe at the moment but I have an opportunity to get rid of Xiz who is a danger to me and I absolutely should do that and then I can chill out in towncore the rest of the game and try to find the other PR!

- I'm being pretty heavily scumread, maybe if I make a confusing kill, people will think I wasn't feeling pressured, and will start to consider towncore that they wouldn't have otherwise considered.

- I'm safe tonight and probably tomorrow night too, I should try and get rid of the other PR, without considering how that makes me look!

- I'm being pretty heavily scumread, maybe I should kill people attacking me in hopes that I get less pressured in future phases!

I don't think the last option is very safe for a wolf to do. I don't think even newer players would consider than an option if they put any thought behind the repercussions

[Bolth mannn]

so originally I had Experienced Townread, Experienced Scumread, Inexperienced Townread, Experienced Townread in front of those 4, but then I realised I'm too inexperienced to understand exactly which would fall under which

[Bolth mannn]

4th was inexperienced scumread, sorry

[Wayward Vagabond]

Ah okay that makes sense

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I like where your head is at. If there is a vig will it be worth entertaining the idea of vig and wolf targeting the same person?

I suppose it's not outside the realm of possibility, much like how we had an Aquisitioner vest pop at the beginning of TWG 193 with a lucky shot...

I need to ask for the sake of asking: If a wolf and a one-shot vigi target the same person, does the vigi get their shot back or no? (assuming the Wolf kill is the thing that goes through)

[Shadow_God_10]

Assuming it's a one shot to make things simpler in my noggin

[Wayward Vagabond]

No that shot is used and gone

[Shadow_God_10]

Guess we can't rule it out until we hear from Choof and Xel...