Old 08-26-2018, 01:36 PM   #2761
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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would it ease your mind celery if Tps didn't hide tonight unless a scum is lynched today?
town has 0% chance of losing tonight if we mislynch if he doesn't hide behind someone
this is not true
if town is lynched this phase and tps does not hide, we would be down to 4 after the two nk's
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Old 08-26-2018, 01:36 PM   #2762
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

4 is the 2:1:1 situation potentially
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Old 08-26-2018, 02:12 PM   #2763
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

UGH I'm trying here
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Old 08-26-2018, 02:39 PM   #2764
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

guys look.

If we don't lynch; Either sunfan, celirra, tps, or myself are being nightkilled. Now, whether they get stacked or not doesn't matter. We're still stuck with the people we are not sure of.

If we do lynch, we have the BEST chance at town winning this game. and I get its a high risk high reward kind of. But if we hit a scum, we get a major boost and are ahead of the game.
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Old 08-26-2018, 02:55 PM   #2765
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I am not a gambler and I think the safe choice is the best choice
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Old 08-26-2018, 02:58 PM   #2766
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

we'll so long as we have more people who aren't gamblers, then I'm ok

gamblers being people not comfortable with taking a risk with around 5% chance of strong downside, and 95% chance of good to strong upside
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Old 08-26-2018, 03:30 PM   #2767
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

surely you understand that the SK and the wolf want to kill towns tonight, Celery.

Our position is not a bad one, but if we sleep, we lose that advantage

we know that between inD, fg, blind and precarious, there is both a serial killer and a wolf (assuming Tps is real)

that's 1/2 for hitting a wolf completely discarding reads. Surely that outweighs your fear of a """"""1/3""""""
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Old 08-26-2018, 04:09 PM   #2768
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

We are currently at 7. Likely 5/1/1.
let me evaluate two scenarios, with their subscenarios:



Lynch this phase

Proper lynch
The absolute best case scenario. 5/1/0 (or 5/0/1, either way) after vote, down to 4/0/1 (ignoring fringe case of tps surviving with hiding). This is great! Hurray! Theoretically for me I have a 50% chance of this working regardless of reads, indeed.


Mislynch
The absolute worst case scenario. 4/1/1 after vote, down to fourpossibilities after night kills (tps pls dont hide if this happens):

4/0/0: Wow this is great, but super unlikely I think.
3/1/0: Well hey, technically the same as the proper lynch route, but still not most likely
2/1/1: This sucks, we lose unless we get lucky.
3/1/1: Vote stacking, lucky us!

Out of these options, #3 and #4 are the most likely. #4 is not gg, but #3 is; it would effectively be another coin flip and I dont like relying on double coin flips.


Sleep this phase

We would be 5/1/1 with all assumptions right now. That leads to all the end results above, but with a +1 to the town count. That sounds pretty nice! That +1 would eliminate the double coinflip scenario from being potentially lethal.


And I don't think it would detriment us at all either. We would still have the same number of lynches at our disposal if we sleep on average, but it is a much safer bet as well due to the lack of the lethal outcome possibility.


I don't know why you want to risk a loss when we don't have to.
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Old 08-26-2018, 04:13 PM   #2769
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

i think thesunfan's got this
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I think we can all agree on the answer, yeah?
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Old 08-26-2018, 04:16 PM   #2770
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Old 08-26-2018, 04:22 PM   #2771
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

yes, the thing is
you don't discard reads

blind is never a wolf and tbh I'll go as far as to say that he's never the SK either, something that I think you agree with, so lets discard him
funny is pretty much never a wolf imo (though she can be SK, I don't think its likely)

so, as long as we lynch Prec or inD, I'm a happy boy

of course it requires me to be right about my reads but that's what this whole fuckin TWG thing is about

having good reads as town and convincing others that your reads are right (equally as important is knowing when you're wrong and when other people have good cases for good reasons etc)

the chance of not hitting one of those two scum today (again, assuming Tps is telling the truth) is just so minuscule to me.

As you have pointed out, we have the same number of lynches on average (I haven't done the math and it sounds icky so I'll just assume you're right). The reason why you still want to lynch is because we could lose the average number of lynches, which is far more important than anything else. Yes, we can be put into a horrible position, one that I'll ever go so far as to call hopeless even though there is hope in it for the sake of argument.

But is so unlikely that I can't see how its worth potentially losing a lynch, and almost certainly losing 2 towns, for the sake of not losing the game because it puts us in a situation where, guess what, we're in a pretty bad position tomorrow almost all of the time.

You're evaluating each possibility equally.

The wolf is (most likely, its really up to them based on the information they posess etc etc but they """""mechanically""""" probably find themself in a situation where the 2-1-1 split is not favored for them) NOT going to try and shoot the SK. They are going to shoot one of you or me.
The Sk is NOT going to try and shoot the wolf. They are going to shoot you or me because they WANT to be in the 2-1-1 split because it gives them the best chance of winning (most likely).

The possibilities are not equal. Town will be severely behind if we sleep; scum WANT to trigger the worst possible scenario for town, and its incredibly easy for them to do that since they know that both you and I are exactly VT and that's the kind of player they want to shoot.

So its a 50/50 that they shoot the same one between us, lets say. 3/1/0 Is the same as lynching properly, SO WHY NOT TRY AND LYNCH PROPERLY WHEN ITS NEVER BEEN EASIER IN THE WHOLE GAME. Saves us having to coinflip between a playable but pretty silly 3-1-0/3-0-1 and an absolutely terrible 2-1-1.
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:21 PM   #2772
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

sunfans right ya know.
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:24 PM   #2773
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

also worth being scared of:
Tps is at 2 posts atm so
I hope he gets like 8 more that would be great
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:34 PM   #2774
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Alright, home and caught back up.

We absolutely should be lynching today, I understand what Celirra is saying but I agree more with Sunfan's line of reasoning here, like the ol' Coach Herm Edwards famously said "You play to win the game".
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:36 PM   #2775
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:37 PM   #2776
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I also agree that a no-hide is the safest corresponding move for tonight.
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:39 PM   #2777
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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I also agree that a no-hide is the safest corresponding move for tonight.
we can lock the game up if we lynch a scum so
if we lynch either the wolf or the SK, you should hide behind say
Funnygurl
to ensure that if she is a wolf or the SK, we can lynch her and win the game the next phase.
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:39 PM   #2778
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I'm debating whether I'd want to go with Funny/Blind/indheart for today's lynch, I feel 1/3 is most likely scum.
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:39 PM   #2779
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

I've yet to see Funny really develop any of their own theories which makes it tough to analyze, Blind is obviously going to die on his precarious is a wolf hill, and indheart seems to be in-line with Cel's mindset.
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Old 08-26-2018, 05:40 PM   #2780
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by the sun fan View Post
we can lock the game up if we lynch a scum so
if we lynch either the wolf or the SK, you should hide behind say
Funnygurl
to ensure that if she is a wolf or the SK, we can lynch her and win the game the next phase.
It's strange that you're not considering FG as a possibility for either of those roles in your mind, but I get what you're saying with regards to confirming the last target in that scenario.
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