TWG CLXV - The Wine In Front Of Me - Game Thread

[Litodude]

Originally Posted by YoshL

we're not pr hunting, we're trying to get you to stop believing that your brain is of a greater-than-walnut size, and not keep doing stupid shit that draws attention to you.

Currently, the whole focus is around you, not hunting for the last PR. You just happen to be super goddamn shaky about trying to actually back up and stand by the opening of your big post. Because if you're softing PR as a VT, then you're absolutely garbage because knowing there's only 1 pr left, you could have been counterclaimed, and would get our last PR killed.

if you're actually a PR, then wolves will kill you anyways during the night, which makes you 100% useless unless you literally out your whole role.

a.k.a. the only 2 ***LOGICAL*** avenues is if he's a wolf, or a full PR here.

Originally Posted by YoshL

haku seems to be avoiding the issue right now. the issue is that the post that he issued is clearly indicating that he's some sort of power role.

this is relevant to my reasoning after re-reading and i hopefully i'm not the only one who could see this reasoning

[Litodude]

if the IC isn't haku they could also just flip whenever they want in which case lynch all liars

[Litodude]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

If you could write up a brief explanation of what you were trying to do during the entire game that could be great.

I have trouble to understand your game progression because you play differently than a lot of players here.

i play this game with this mindset:

• there are players that do not have information available.
  
• there are players that do have insider information available.
  
• given every single piece of information publicly available, would $player act in a way that only make sense if they had insider informaiton?
  
• given every single piece of information publicly available, is there any possible insight that i could solve based on game-theory rational maximization in which i can have an advantage?

here's a link: http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ory-basics.asp

u understand probably all of it, but u don't understand the last point: games the do not have vanilla rules can be solved up to a point in which humans have an advantage:

Originally Posted by Litodude

i disagree: theorycrafting on games of which there's an ability of maximizing advantages based on interpretations of game mechanics from the perspective of a wolf or human is the only reason why i play anymore (aka the fun part)

in this game, the strat is figuring out what are the weakest possible combinations that wolves could pick, and if i correctly deduced that, we would have an advatange. unfortunately i was wrong and was operating with incomplete information (IC can be flipped whenever) so the possibility of 'cop+jailer+tracker' that I had theorycrafted was blown out of the window and I settled for my next theory: now that the IC is a possibility, who knew the mechanics of the IC existed? those players would be wolves, or IC, or previous players that knew the set up of IC. i only played one game where IC existed (last month's zoom), and made the same assumption that host would reveal that in the beginning of the game and didn't see that. thus my reasoning the freezin is PR. while i know blue hunting is a bad strategy overall, i reasoned that even outing this information would make it more beneficial for the group, as inno+cop+jailer/tracker would be enough to possibly jail a kill or track it, leaving us with a statistical advantage sooner, rather than later.

[roundbox]

Here's how this is going to work. I'm going to assign + or - ratings related to Shado's perception of that player and keep a running tally of them on a separate document and post that at the end. If it warrants an explanation, I give one.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I didn't want to get involved because the more you post rn the better. I think you're going off a little too hard on Freezin tbh. I had him as top scum in my notes last night but he's had at least one post today that's made me reconsider.
Also his post saying you being in the background reminds him of recent wolfgames isn't as 0/10 as you think. I can see where he's coming from. Even when tunneling me, you didn't really push on me, you kind of called out stuff here and there and let other peeps do the dirty work for you. I don't agree with his conclusion on you, but I think you should consider building a backup wagon as well.

thesunfan+ (his approach is very gentle and like "hey man you're town like me so come on let's see things straight" and not a UR WOLFIN WITH THAT READ)
freezin +--

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

@Freezin I think sunfan's pretty town tbh, but that depends on something... I think you can always revisit him later if you find something scummy, and if whatever you find is worth anything then people won't call you a flipflop. Progression of reads is natural, I don't think anyone really expects you to hold the same read forever.
Speaking of which, why did you go from calling out Charu as opportunistic and saying you could vote him all day to listing him as town in a matter of two posts? What caused your read to change?

thesunfan+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

...and where do I say that?



How is acknowledging that Freezin had a point (at the time) about saying you being in the background is reminiscent of last game IN ANY WAY semantics?
I didn't feel much pressure from you last game. You keep saying you were tunneling me, but really that just means that you didn't move your vote. You didn't do much to maintain it though, comfortable in the knowledge that I'd get lynched. You might've placed the first vote, but I remember even saying early in D1 (first phase where I got pressure) that it felt like you were in the background cheering on AA to a mislynch.

If your push on Freezin had taken place after the Haku debacle, I would've wholeheartedly supported you (I had him as solid scum then)
As it is now, I think you guys are T/T. I don't know why you have 4 votes on you, and its weird that two of them are Haku/Tokzic. I'd suggest you step back and re-read Freezin's posts while imagining he's talking about someone else. Don't even look at the content 'cause you'll be biased, just read his posts and tell me he doesn't earnestly believe what he's writing.

I think I'm just gonna post my notes so y'all can see my initial reads. Obviously my notes will not be alignment indicative because I wrote them before joining game, but maybe it'll at least show you guys where I'm coming from.

thesunfan+
freezin+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Reactions on Haku Clusterfuck D0

choof town ("let me level with you like I did with Zenith many a time")

Gradiant town (shitposting w/ Charu to avoid drama, calls out sunfan, and calls out inD "whether the group cares about it shouldn't make him not look at the avenue right now")

sunfan likely town (questioning YoshL on Charuread, secondguessing himself, and having fun... later: "unusual first read" to mellon, mindmeld with what I wrote)

YoshL slight townlean (shows initiative on Haku, sticks with it despite potential consequences, refuses to move, changes read on charu twice "I mean, I initially had him as like, kinda town for the seriousness..." not sure if joking when he said aragakiayase probably scum)(later: "i think, i don't really need to say anything other than it wasn't a slip"..."I was only commenting on the player count, and even fucked that up." ... "if you believe it's a slip still, then cool...." ... "haku's original implication ... taken at face value ... seems like a valid assumption to make, but honestly isn't that valid")

Freezin likely scum (quotes posts with reactions like "jesus christ" "can you not" and votes haku without knowing votecount, seemingly at L-1. If haku ever flips wolf, Freezin is wolf on the wagon fsr... later reasoning for the vote: "i knew it wasnt insta?" "although haku getting asploded would have been funny")
Freezin (like him slightly better in "bruh if i cared about getting on towns bad side i wouldnt have done all that blatantly chaotic stuff" ... "but whatever floats your boat" ... "oh ok so you didnt read my posts gotcha", because his self referencing in those posts is in blatant contrast with his last game as Jade Harley)(also "heads up if eod comes and sunfan still hasn't clarified his vote on me atm im going to vote him no questions asked" which he later backed up by quoting sunfans vote and calling him out again)(why are freezin and inD both focusing on sunfan all of a sudden?)
Freezin maybe town "oh, I get it" ... to gradiant: "dude im shaking my head at you ... your the one whose a fucking cheesecake you completely misunderstood that post and went on a retarded tirade about it" ... "and now your vomiting words in my lap like this is somehow my fault" ... "thats my argument you fruitcake" Starting to see Freezin/Gradiant as T/T

inD null-slightwolflean (called out by Gradiant and responded with "I'm actually just lazy and don't want to do it tonight but I do think there's something to be gained from it". Also weird comment to freezin "how's that chaos going for you" when freezin omgused choof's vote. also "sunfan/yoshl, you two seem to be getting different things out of charu's posts. sunfan, can you develop why "those posts" make him null?") inD also defending YoshL "but the way his posts were phrased"... "doesn't need to make him out to be a wolf"
inD looks better for ("freezin has kind of a thing about "appeasement" as town...", "reminder to ask sunfan tomorrow whether he means this") (also, why are freezin and inD both focusing on sunfan all of a sudden?)
inD looks worse again for refocusing on Freezin when Gradiant kept pushing Freezin. also "has he ever seen you wolf" to YoshL gives the impression that he thinks yosh is always town

mellon odd for defending Freezin off the bat and not saying much else other than "you guys are going hard early"

Haku probably town for "Is the bold a slip? it's like you knew my alignment already at this point" to YoshL about 11p nightstart

Charu to Haku: "then don't be bait, unless you love playing like bait" ?



Stopped at "ok if you cant deal with cognitive dissonance maybe your playing the wrong game"


^^^raw unedited so sorry for the format
In reading up the day after writing that (but still before replacing), Charu seemed off but that's still a diagnosis in progress, and I'd reset Haku back to null for fading out of thread and not posting as much since that shit went down

choof++
thesunfan+
yoshl+
freezin++-
ind-
raeko-
haku+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

As far as I can tell, this is the post sunfan was referring to when he says screaming to move.


I think he meant the wagon, not the read.
Maan hard defending him here is gonna fuck us if he ever flips wolf, but I really don't think he will soo I'll risk it

thesunfan+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

inDheart
Of those three, I really can't say. Raeko has precedent at staying UTR until she has to resurface, lightknight's logic is ?????, and Tokzic hasn't made a non-RP post except to vote sunfan.

inD at least I feel has posted enough to where I can read him a little, and he came off as scummy during the Haku debacle. Also, if he flips wolf I'm going after YoshL tomorrow.

only important because indheart did NOT flip wolf
maybe this clears yoshl a bit from his POV? this was d0, however

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Why is your list exactly mine :O
2spoopy4me
Even the sunfan read uses the same wording :O

Except I wouldn't place Charu THAT low just yet. Also you missed YoshL..........

roundbox+ (mindmeld)

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Freezin/sunfan have been involved in a long, drawn out squabble that is most likely TvT and from which they will not leave. Tokzic has yet to post since his last RP post. lightknight is literally insane, but he has a life and IS MAD SO HE WILL VOTE FREEZIN. Mellon is apparently reading up somewhere but hasn't responded to my ping checking if she was still here. Hakulyte is still Hakulyte. Roundbox is being roundbox, albeit the likely town variety, although I have not seen him play wolf in a long while. inDheart is slowly trying to make his way back to good graces by being calm and slowly building reads. YoshL came back for a moment and has receded into the blackness from whence he came, which is also where his soul resides for camouflage reasons. Charu is an interesting person who we all love but may or may not be a wolf instead of a bird.

freezin+
sunfan+
roundbox+
charu-
YoshL- (maybe? looking at future posts this actually makes sense nvm)

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

That was Xel. FreezinSun are never W/W here, sunfan wouldn't bus that hard for that long ever.

important dichotomy

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Agreed but he definitely got better. Join me on YoshL?

YoshL-
roundbox+ (this is asking me to join him since we have a decent mindmeld goin' on)

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

NOTE:Raeko is doing that thing where she comes in to dispel negative opinions on her and disappears. Pro UTR

raeko--

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

THIS IS FUCKING WEIRD WHY ARE THE STRANGEST PEOPLE JOINING ME ON THIS WAGON

strange people being Tokzic and Charu

Charu-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

About the point of no return / better thing to do, I'll have to disagree. I don't have as much experience as most of you, but most heated arguments I've seen develop D0 are TvT. Wolves won't want to single themselves out in a thunderdome like that because they're trading themselves for one town. That same stubbornness is what got me off AA last game, and I think him seeing me question and develop other reads helped him townread me as well. Before that, me and Raeko got fed up with each other in the same game. In CLIX, Gradi/Freezin, me/Freezin, me/MML, and me/inD all dominated multiple pages of arguing. All TvT. I think it takes a really confident wolf to enter a heated thunderdome D0. They've gotta be pretty shre they can mislynch the other person or make them look bad or at least come out of it looking better than them, AND have to avoid people being so sure it's W/T that it causes them to get caught the next day.

Thinking about it now, that's more likely from you than from him. Also, I really don't think "spending 10 pages talking about how sure you are" means you can't change your mind or refocus. I also think you know that, though. I'd ask "why were you so concerned with your image that you thought there no return?", but that's a loaded question and may not be inherently true.

for the heated arguments on d0, this applies to:

yoshl+
hakulyte+
thesunfan+
freezin+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Lmao @squealing
I feel like I'm always saying this but I just wanted her to post more. Pinging roundbox is good, but well within Raeko's range as either alignment. Hence my very next post only slightly adjusting her alignment for that post for the original thought of pinging roundbox.

raeko+
roundbox-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Well, tokzic's flipped so

That leaves Haku, Raeko+Freezin, Lito (in order of scumminess imo)

Yeah I'd say at least one wolf is a fair assessment

haku-
raeko-
freezin-
lito-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Lmao lito I don't remember the 2nd half of inD's vote. LESS CHAOS than usual? Ridiculous.

@sunfan I'd bet its within Haku/inD/Raeko. I got Lito at a townlean atm, would've been stronger if he didn't have the strangest combination of opinionated objectivism I've ever seen, but that's reminiscent of his town game too. Only problem with opinionated objectivism is that it lets him push his potential agenda under the guise of seriously believing "my actions are always 100% best for town".

haku-
ind-
raeko-
lito+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

This is a good catch.
Solidified townread for Lito
Slight bonus town points for sunfan

lito+
thesunfan+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Don't even try it. His slot is still 10x more towny than yours atm. I saw your question earlier and wondered if it was even allowed, and whether you'd use it as a base for scumreading him after he left.

choof++

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Fair. I remember generally agreeing with his wolfreads and noting that he had complete mindmelds on reasonings for sunfan and inD.

Again, it depends on whether wolfbox busses actively, but I have him townier on the basis of his reads alone

roundbox+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Shit that vote impacted my townlean on him, too 'cause I thought he voted inD then got off once inD "wasn't scrambling"
Guess I gotta reread roundbox later.
K peace lmao

wavering skepticism toward me, nothing impacted yet

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

You get major brownie points and some town points here

To be clear, I don't think I ever lynch lito this phase. Putting him in my town core with choof and sunfan. Roundbox was in it yesterday but idk what to make of 0 posts this phase.

Also trending up imo: YoshL (with a hint of paranoia and a pinch of salt for low post volume)

Were trending up but slowed their posting down: Charu, Freezin

lito++
choof+
thesunfan+
yoshl+
charu+
freezin+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

If my vote wasn't already on you this'd probably trigger it. I've said this 1000x, but.. If your primary reason for voting someone is info, you better provide exactly what info you're after or gtfo

What info do you gain from sunfan's lynch?
Exactly what's your next step if he flips town? What if he flips wolf?
Exactly how will his flip affect your reads in both cases?

hakulyte-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Likely town, town, and town.
You almost had me thinking the game was over with that shit
Level of care is NAI. My level of care dropped immensely last night so I got lit and read a book instead. That shit doesn't matter if they find time elsewhere to gamesolve. Games are draining lol not much you can do about that

charu+
thesunfan+
lito+

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Tl;dnr of reads:

Choof,
lito,
sunfan towncore in that order.

Freezin,
Charu,
YoshL town leans in that order. I think there could be one UTR wolf here, but I'll worry about that later if I have to. Freezin reads genuine (where did he go?), I've liked YoshL's content, reads, solve approach while he's here (wanted him to post more and he's starting to do that), and Charu's been solidly town with several mindmelds and on point responses/prodding (only complaint with Charu is there was a point where I remember thinking he was subtly manipulating an interaction, but that feeling kinda dissipated)

Roundboz slight townlean. Liked him a lot EoD D0 (he had 2nd towniest imo at the time, would've followed him onto a wagon if he'd been more proactive) but his solvey impression from D0 and the mindmelds of our reads have slowly been being replaced with a deep void of utr nothingness.

Raeko slight scumlean, see my post on her for more (60% confidence)
InD scumlean, see my posts on him for more (70-75% confidence)
Haku scumread, see my posts on him for more, and don't forget his potential slip at start of phase (85-90% confidence)


Sorry for format, phoneposting.
I guess my reads are kind of spread out in my posts because I've been caught up and noting my thoughts as they develop, rather than take notes and drop consolidated reads. I've been phoneposting most of the game, though, so you'll have to bear with me on that. If there's ever confusion on how I'm reading someone, just ask

thesunfan+
lito+
choof+
freezin+
charu+
yoshl+
roundbox+
raeko-
haku-
ind-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

unvote
Yeah I'm valuing my toneread over all the shitty logic, content, and wack ass shit Haku's done this game.

Also something's really bugging me about Freezin that I had forgotten after EoD and just remembered
Pulling it up now

haku++

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

GUYS

LYNCH FROM IND AND RAEKO

IDGAF about your other reads this phase

this is not becoming a shitfest like last phase

ind-
raeko-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I actually started the wagon on you.
You've been fixated on sunfan, haven't really done much aside from come in and hard defend Haku and call sunfan scum. Your posts are mainly reactionary, and while your tone was alright you haven't done much to solve the game. You were under pressure earlier this game (maybe last phase) and came in, gave a couple reactions, asked where roundbox went (diversion?) and disappeared again. I've seen you do the same thing as wolf.
I started this wagon three hours before EoD to give you time to respond.

What makes you town? Why should you not get lynched here?

raeko-

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I don't think she'd do that if they were both wolves tbh. I think shes the wolf trying to look good after inD flips green

raeko-

-----

ok, so there are the quotes with their scores. here is the raw, unedited format I have them in

-----

freezin ++++++++----
lito ++++++-
raeko +---------
choof/WNB ++++++
thesunfan +++++++++++
charu +++--
hakulyte +++----
indheart ----
roundbox +++++-
yoshl ++++--

-----

now organized from MOST towny to LEAST towny based off of points

-----

thesunfan (11)
choof (6)
lito (5)
freezin (4)
roundbox (4)
yoshl (2)
charu (1)
hakulyte (-1) <------- SPECIAL NOTE: WAS TOWNREADING AT END OF PHASE
indheart (-4)
raeko (-8)

-----

Considering ind is town and haku was being promoted to a townread, here's the bottom of his list

freezin/roundbox
yoshl
charu
raeko

---------

Based off of what I've seen today and have had time to recollect and gather, I feel like raeko is especially wolfy here based off of Shado's list alone. Not only that, her efforts in trying to usher an insta on thesunfan within an hour of the phase is loltier.

Charu has provided some game solving this phase and it's not within the bounds of "solving the game just to look like I'm pro-town," so I can hold off of him.

YoshL is an interesting one that I'm actually really considering taking a look at for wolfiness.

Not gonna comment on myself

Freezin has rode the top of shado's list for awhile and only arrived to this score based off of early reads

-----

if you disagree with my parse, feel free to CHECK ME OUT

[roundbox]

IC should reveal tomorrow if they're still alive unless they have to use it today to escape the lynch

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by roundbox

IC should reveal tomorrow if they're still alive unless they have to use it today to escape the lynch

in the event of mylo

[thesunfan]

agreed
if there's a jk or somehow a vigi, they shouldn't claim tho

[Litodude]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

You should read last game where he was consensus town yet he lived till the end of the game.

People leave haku alive because he causes confusion and can't lead a lynch

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'm afraid I can't vote Sunfan if more people don't move to Raeko/Charu.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I just feel like you/roundbox/raeko/YoshL haven't said enough and besides, I haven't seen any of you agreeing with me to lynch Sunfan so far so, what can I do.

raeko proceeds to post more and push on suns

http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...postcount=1815

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Freezin/sunfan have been involved in a long, drawn out squabble that is most likely TvT and from which they will not leave. Tokzic has yet to post since his last RP post. lightknight is literally insane, but he has a life and IS MAD SO HE WILL VOTE FREEZIN. Mellon is apparently reading up somewhere but hasn't responded to my ping checking if she was still here. Hakulyte is still Hakulyte. Roundbox is being roundbox, albeit the likely town variety, although I have not seen him play wolf in a long while. inDheart is slowly trying to make his way back to good graces by being calm and slowly building reads. YoshL came back for a moment and has receded into the blackness from whence he came, which is also where his soul resides for camouflage reasons. Charu is an interesting person who we all love but may or may not be a wolf instead of a bird.

the only reason imo shado died is because he got on ur trail @raeko

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Hi guys I'm really sorry I haven't been around this weekend. It's my mum's birthday and I've been super busy all weekend. I totally forgot (I am a terrible daughter I know, I do have a gift for her coming in the mail)

anyways just reading this last page: how often is lynching an inactive during the day phase a hit on a wolf? Even if one of us is a wolf, the active wolves will push the lynch away from that person and toward a town inactive. So that's a pretty silly idea IMO

I'm going to work on catching up right now. Sorry again but I should be free a lot more now that the weekend is over

like in the case that u are pr and not wolf like i don't see how you're not being pocketed here lol @haku

[Wineandbread]

I just want to curl up and die

I'll try to post after dinner but I really don't feel like doing fucking anything after today

[Litodude]

i'm tryna not tunnel here so yeh lmk if i'm not makin sense

i got work stuff to do so i'll try to pop in later tonight or tmr mornin

[Litodude]

fwiw if someone wanna do a pattern of life analysis on me it's a strict

a) want to procrastinate
b) have coffee

if lito == a + b
post = True
end

[Litodude]

Originally Posted by thesunfan

agreed
if there's a jk or somehow a vigi, they shouldn't claim tho

game-theory states u r wrong

wolves would not have risked killing lightknight if they had implemented jailkeeper, because jailkeeper (being a rational and efficient human) would jail cop. they would've picked someone else to kill

but in the off shoot chance that there is a jk still U ARE A FUCKIN IDIOT and it would only be fitting if that was haku ROFL

[thesunfan]

I mean yeah but I'm also talking about a vigi when there's almost certainly clearly not one
just covering bases, lito

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

[POST QUOTING SHADOW AND BASING SHADOW'S READS AND NOT HIS OWN]

Optimally, you're doing the right thing by trying to bus raeko here with this, thesunfan vs raeko fiasco. How fun though you're setting up the next day phase with me lined up.

As they say in this gosh darn forum game.

Noted

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by Charu

Noted

you're not supposed to underline otherwise this would be 5/7

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Charu

Optimally, you're doing the right thing by trying to bus raeko here with this, thesunfan vs raeko fiasco. How fun though you're setting up the next day phase with me lined up.

As they say in this gosh darn forum game.

Noted

if anything yoshl is next on the table
I said you were trending up dawg

also wow, what a fucking bold strategy my partner raeko and I came up with to start off the day
"we're once lynch away from mylo, but let's just say fuck it. you make some really rushed push to lynch thesunfan since you've been tunneling him all game and it won't look unnatural, and I'll scumread you for it and push your lynch. wow! this won't backfire!"

hilarious

[Charu]

lmao

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Charu

lmao

this tells me nothing you bird

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

if anything yoshl is next on the table
I said you were trending up dawg

also wow, what a fucking bold strategy my partner raeko and I came up with to start off the day
"we're once lynch away from mylo, but let's just say fuck it. you make some really rushed push to lynch thesunfan since you've been tunneling him all game and it won't look unnatural, and I'll scumread you for it and push your lynch. wow! this won't backfire!"

hilarious

Pretty bold because you saw mellon, your partner, not really doing anything to look like a town, and I'd wager having her flip would make you think you look incredibly towny.

[Charu]

Also, every single town player should be reading mellon as like 95% scum, unless you're misunderstanding the situation again.

Haku... freezin...