TWG CLXXIV - Sounds Like You've got a Problem. - Game Thread

[XelNya]

ps yes I am aware there has only been one kill per night

and I am aware sunfan (?) thinks star didn't shoot at all

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

you still attached to this at all? (I'm only up to the post this is, had to do song picking for tourney going on atm as a break so I have no idea if you probed about this or not)

I keep getting asked about it. It seems a few people (Roundbox, SunFan, WnB, Gradiant I think?) don't buy into it but I am convinced we had a second killing power which is likely Star as One Shot Vigi.

Because if Wolves made that FG kill and did not target IC that makes no sense.

Me and WnB where having a back and forth on this over the last three pages but I'm waiting on him to respond.

[Wineandbread]

Originally Posted by TWGma

If I have to make a quick list on where I am, it would look probably something like this..

TOWN:
Gradiant
sunfan
inD
Lar
T-Force

NULL:
Wine
roundbox
Raeko

WOLFY:
Ben



Either way, the 3 R's scare me more than Reading, Writing, and 'rithmetic so seeing something out of them would be cool.

Wine is pretty neutral because I've seen him coast on a wolf game by still playing fairly even keeled (although that was helped by choof playing the wolf game of his life).

Reuben is the one I'm easily the most wary of because I saw a lot of these same tactics in the 2nd coming of jTWG where he rolled wolf an unfortunate number of times (Flash Squadron, the Harry Potter game.. Hell, iirc, he had a streak of at least 3 straight), and they all contained similar styles: not really confronting anyone, but making a lot of analytical summary posts to make it look like he's keeping up and contributing, but adding nothing of flavour.

Can you comment on rb scaring you & why inD/sunfan have had a complete reversal after star's death?

How do you feel about my comment about inD/sunfan not directly engaging each other d1?

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

[...]

Because for Vigi not to shoot the first night that means wolves did not go for IC and I do not buy into that. I get you do, others do, whatever; I do not.

Star replacing in night phase means jack all as night phase is 24 hours and I saw her in the thread throughout the phase while I was re-reading. She had plenty of time to send in a kill. Hell, depending on how much she was town reading me she might have very well picked FG because of my scumlean/vote

Nope, I'm not. Just that it boils down to same difference
Like I think of the possiblity of Vigi and use it as the term for second killing power. Of course it could be an SK, but honestly in my hypothetical here said killing power shot someone who was getting voted (in a EoD where the lynched got killed off of 2 votes, that means something) and I think Vigi would make the call that a potential wolf needed to go first.

I mean I've seen SK do that too (I have myself as SK) but a town aligned Vigi is probably the safer bet.

Do you think we have both Sk and One Shot Vigi in the game? I guess C9+++ does get role heavy but that seems like alot of night killing going on.

[...]

Well if you still don't buy it at this point I'll stop talking about it with you. I will just reiterate one more time that blue-hunting instead of IC kill is a very logical use of wolf kill power because there are potentially many blues in the game (and also remember wolves know roughly how many T were rolled in the setup), and for you to evaluate Gradiant's posts d0 and think if he was worth killing.

You're the only one scumreading fg d0 as far as I'm aware. You think that was enough for vigi to pull the trigger? Can you explain a bit more what you mean in the bolded?

But no, I don't think SK is in this game either.

Originally Posted by Charu

EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

GRADIANT HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH XELNYA

Also, they are pardoned the burden of posting 5, but THEY SHOULD POST AT LEAST 3 POSTS THIS PHASE OR FACE THE RULES APPLIED POST #2

Funnygurl you were right all along

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

and for you to evaluate Gradiant's posts d0 and think if he was worth killing.

He could have never posted and still be worth killing he's a cleared slot

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

You're the only one scumreading fg d0 as far as I'm aware. You think that was enough for vigi to pull the trigger? Can you explain a bit more what you mean in the bolded?

The bolded literally explains the bolded.
Top lynch was a weak ass 2 votes. Anyone being voted in that dead as hell EoD is pretty much just as viable.


This point was illustrating that Star probably read the thread and didn't make a random kill (which seems out of character for her apparently); I was her first solid town read so if you where going to pick a kill from the list you'd probably agree with your town reads. The point isn't "But, but Funnygirl had a vote!!!" because we could say that about others.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

He could have never posted and still be worth killing he's a cleared slot

To add on to this, if he was rallying for a huge mislynch maybe, except no not even then because then it's super obvious he's going to mislynch.

Also Gradiant wasn't rallying shit so the idea IC would get towns lynched is gone and that doesn't even seem as useful as making sure town doesn't have cleared slots

And for fuck's sake man if you can't see this point then I don't know what to say.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I keep getting asked about it. It seems a few people (Roundbox, SunFan, WnB, Gradiant I think?) don't buy into it but I am convinced we had a second killing power which is likely Star as One Shot Vigi.

Because if Wolves made that FG kill and did not target IC that makes no sense.

Me and WnB where having a back and forth on this over the last three pages but I'm waiting on him to respond.

Roundbox I can see not buying it because it's a speculation based thought and not aligned to any actions by anyone in the game.

Sunfan thinks you're on a one track path in terms of this "going after what's in front of you" as he puts it.

The real question is to solve why star would shoot fg based on the in game actions, because I'd think if star did take the shot there's a zero percent chance she doesn't claim it was her. Even IF it's a bad shot, it does help solve the nightkill puzzle, so the information is valuable either way.

And Star I think has a strong enough interest in the game.

tldr: I don't agree with you that she shot FG and I think she was saving it for one more night to make a play towards today's eod based on her posts (which I read before anything because she's the only other PR, and she's dead so I was skimming to see if I could find her soft at all.)

I think operating like there's another kill power is smart, but I can't say I'd do it based on that. Dbp didn't kill till needed once, so I'm always weary of it in this setup because (at least assuming Charu uses the same PMs as the ones linked in the setup) they don't have to kill.

I think based on nightkills I'd wanna look into the deep wolf pool here. They're killing people to give little info, and netted a PR in the process. They're still up either two or three.

Which is something that reminds me of how Xiz picks wolfkills...

[Wineandbread]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

He could have never posted and still be worth killing he's a cleared slot



The bolded literally explains the bolded.
Top lynch was a weak ass 2 votes. Anyone being voted in that dead as hell EoD is pretty much just as viable.


This point was illustrating that Star probably read the thread and didn't make a random kill (which seems out of character for her apparently); I was her first solid town read so if you where going to pick a kill from the list you'd probably agree with your town reads. The point isn't "But, but Funnygirl had a vote!!!" because we could say that about others.

Okay maybe I'll try something different.
HYPOTHETICALLY, let us assume the setup is 2T.
At the start of the game, wolves will see: T - T - M - x - x - x - x, where x is an unknown blue role.
Can you see why, in this situation, IC doesn't get killed? I think they would value cutting down blue numbers over the thread of IC on wolves in day phases.

Your vote logic doesn't seem sound to me. Why wouldn't they just shoot their own target instead of yours if they know they are 100% town, regardless of how towny you are? If she read the thread I'm sure she can form her own opinions, ie. inD.

If the top vote was 2 votes, wouldn't everyone even out of the votes be viable then? There were a lot of people that didn't vote. I don't think having a low vote top lynch necessitates lynching within the pool.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

The real question is to solve why star would shoot fg based on the in game actions, because I'd think if star did take the shot there's a zero percent chance she doesn't claim it was her. Even IF it's a bad shot, it does help solve the nightkill puzzle, so the information is valuable either way.

And Star I think has a strong enough interest in the game.

tldr: I don't agree with you that she shot FG

Then possible other killing power?
I mean fuck if wolves actually are just avoiding IC that's dumb. I just don't believe it.

Originally Posted by XelNya

I think based on nightkills I'd wanna look into the deep wolf pool here. They're killing people to give little info, and netted a PR in the process. They're still up either two or three.

Which is something that reminds me of how Xiz picks wolfkills...

I'm pretty ok with lynching one of the actives.
To go after Raeko or T-Force honestly seems lazy and a good way to mislynch (especially Raeko). Ben's on the bottom too but he was active early and I think we have more then enough content from him to hold him accountable.

But I'm probably not voting Ben today unless he returns and completely drops the ball.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Then possible other killing power?
I mean fuck if wolves actually are just avoiding IC that's dumb. I just don't believe it.



I'm pretty ok with lynching one of the actives.
To go after Raeko or T-Force honestly seems lazy and a good way to mislynch (especially Raeko). Ben's on the bottom too but he was active early and I think we have more then enough content from him to hold him accountable.

But I'm probably not voting Ben today unless he returns and completely drops the ball.

I'm down to put ben on the table for some "fun" tho

because this hoe is gonna play this game even if I drag him by his painted on penguin tuxedo to do it

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Can you see why, in this situation, IC doesn't get killed? I think they would value cutting down blue numbers over the thread of IC on wolves in day phases.

You're not going to like my answer

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Your vote logic doesn't seem sound to me. Why wouldn't they just shoot their own target instead of yours if they know they are 100% town, regardless of how towny you are? If she read the thread I'm sure she can form her own opinions, ie. inD.

Was InD her first pick?

My theory doesn't hinged on her sheeping me so this is a moot point anyway. I'm just saying that she had time to read the thread and make a shot and if we wanted to read deeply into it said shot hints that there could have been thought into it based off reading---that it wouldn't necessarily be random. The idea that Funny was a random shot when there where votes within the 1 vote range of most voted and one of her strong towns suspected funny doesn't mesh if we assume that Star DID IT.

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

If the top vote was 2 votes, wouldn't everyone even out of the votes be viable then? There were a lot of people that didn't vote. I don't think having a low vote top lynch necessitates lynching within the pool.

That could be a viable viewpoint for her to take. In our theory we know she chose Funny because Funny died. Unless she didn't shoot and wolves killed her.

But damn, there's that thing about wolves probably going FOR THE CLEAR FUCKING SLOT that makes me feel like we have a doctor/jailer/your role here and that someone else killed Funny so you know....

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

The give me something else because that's the summery of your day right there, pal.

Your hot take follows no logical reasoning and your explanation of why you made it makes little sense; oh I'm trying to like confuse you with mechanical possibilities of the game? That'll...do something I fucking guess? Like what?

If you wanna come at me then put in some work first and come at me this is sad.

While it's not the amount of "work" you might have wanted, it doesn't make "zero" logical sense. The way you're emphasizing how poor it is for the wolves to not have killed the IC paints you in a light that you're strongly disagreeing with wolf strategy, and would suggest that you would kill the IC if you were a wolf. This could be a construction to make you look town because the IC would be dead if you were a wolf according to your dissent.

who said I was voting for you anyway lmao

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

I'm down to put ben on the table for some "fun" tho

Oh if I see him pop in here and not say shit/try to respond to people asking him questions he can die.

If he never comes back, wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll I've seen Ben lynched for not coming back and flip town so I'm having PTSD over that.

[roundbox]

debating over star's shot or non-shot doesn't solve us the game, can you stop talking about it holy shit

[roundbox]

I'm gonna be with my parents most of the day so if I don't make enough posts to satisfy mml's ideal picture of me don't be surprised
I'll see what I can do before I have to head out

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Was InD her first pick?

My theory doesn't hinged on her sheeping me so this is a moot point anyway. I'm just saying that she had time to read the thread and make a shot and if we wanted to read deeply into it said shot hints that there could have been thought into it based off reading---that it wouldn't necessarily be random. The idea that Funny was a random shot when there where votes within the 1 vote range of most voted and one of her strong towns suspected funny doesn't mesh if we assume that Star DID IT.



That could be a viable viewpoint for her to take. In our theory we know she chose Funny because Funny died. Unless she didn't shoot and wolves killed her.

But damn, there's that thing about wolves probably going FOR THE CLEAR FUCKING SLOT that makes me feel like we have a doctor/jailer/your role here and that someone else killed Funny so you know....

I have another question for yous

does this post matter

Originally Posted by star-crossed

So, inDheart sounds strange to me on the first couple of pages, because the vibe I get from his messages goes back and forth from kind of lazy (only saying "second" in post #5, "okay I'm amused" in #20, "this is known", to very hyped and silly (joking that he does not believe Charu in #7, and using exclamation points in #14, and also him just making lots of posts). The apparent emotion there, seems kind of inconsistent, which makes me concerned that he was not being genuine.

When he comes back in at page 4, I do not really get what he was meaning by "feeling like a bad person" or "shitpost-hunting" and why the latter is weird (he does explain it to the sun fan later but I still do not get it). And I found it kind of awkward, that inDheart and the sun fan had strong opposite reactions to what was happening with Force and Funnygirl. It was still fairly jokey at the time and like they were maybe trying to test Force and Funnygirl, but from reading it I felt they had taken different 'sides' to it but were waiting on the others' reactions, not trying to get a feel from one another on it.

In #104 (pg. 6), inDheart makes his first lean of sorts, that sun fan and WV were awkward. Two things stood out to me about that. One is that when Pusheen was wanting to know what awk meant, inDheart posts a dictionary thing, which seems strangely aloof, and like he did not really want to talk more about it. (I am trying to decide if that is good or bad weird - it could be a town that can't really put words to it yet, or a mafia that is worried he will sound bad if he explains it). The other is that inDheart made a similar first theory when he was a mafia in the turbo I played with him, where he pointed out that two people seemed to be unaligned to him, but he did not explain why. In this game, he also zeroed in on an interaction between two people without giving further commentary. So from that, and him making lots of posts, I see him as having a more similar attitude at the start to when he was a mafia, than when he was my hydra partner.

I was unsure of sun fan's read on blind (pg. 6, #111), because I do not recall blind as a mafia trying to make friends with anybody or that being how sun fan tried to read blind in the first turbo I was playing with them. I was also unsure if he was being genuine in trying to make the game be more serious. His stream of consciousness about ben and inDheart (""cuz my shitpost radar wasn't getting pinged there AND cuz I'm not exactly sure why he felt the need to point that out? / idk / now that I've said this I'm not really sure where I'm going with this" (#117)) seemed drawn out. That and the side tangent about the hat, gave me the feeling that he may be being over the top, with trying to sound imaginative. But I do appreciate the direction he tried to move things in.

In #150 (pg. 8), inDheart said "pretty sure i'm winning the lynch right now though so i don't know with what authority i make this post," which seems like he is kind of defining his self-worth by how much people want to hang him, which seems like something mafia care more about than town.

I have some conflicting thoughts on #189 (pg. 10) from inDheart, where he says "well if he didn't disappear with just that we'd know for sure" to reuben about MML being vague. I feel like it makes more sense for a town to be annoyed about that, since mafia would not really care about that. Unless, it is just a tactic to try to make MML look shady. (I would think MML and inDheart would be less likely to both be mafias from that.)

I did like #211 (pg. 11) where inD talked about wanting to have more pressure votes. It gave me a warm feeling. But then I felt let down, when he noticed there were more messages, that there wasn't more pressure and questioning from him.


The above post from pg. 13 confused me, because the last sentence seems to conflict with the first sentence, in a mollifying way. Like he is confused, but still wants to drop the conversation. (Since Funnygirl was a town, I am not sure there is a specific reason for him to want to drop it as a mafia, but it still gave me a weird feeling.)

From sun fan (#248, pg. 13) I liked that he was worried about not having time to find the right person to hang. I remember feeling that way in the last game that I played. And I think the emotions in the next post, about MML being harsh with him, are a bit more likely to come out as town, because they seem...subtle/mixed, I guess, rather than more angry. My only worry with it, is I am not sure sun fan was actually trying to figure out if MML's unreasonable expectations are because MML is a mafia. But then in #251, he does say that he was thinking about that regarding MML, even if it did not come across to me.

But the more interesting part of #251 to me, is his lean that inD is a town "mostly for his solviness." I would like to know why sun fan thought inD was seeming particularly "solvey". Wineandbread (I forgot his name actually and had to look it up...), sun fan and MML, are the people that come to mind more for that. I do not feel most of what inD has posted, would be hard to come up with as a mafia, and if I am missing something with that I would like to know what. This lean concerns me particularly, because what I remember sun fan reading inD based on in my turbo with both of them, was whether inD seemed "like a man on a mission," and it sounds to me like sun fan's tactic for that changed. So I would like to know more about why he is looking for that with inD.

As a note, I do not feel like sun fan and inDheart continued to avoid each other throughout Day 0. Mainly inDheart at points, would talk about his thoughts on sun fan's thoughts.


This was from page 20. I did not really get what he meant by leverage. I don't like his comment about Pusheen, because it seems like a very passive (as in kind of manipulative, rather than actually invested in it or wanting to be more direct) way of discounting sun fan's feeling that Pusheen could be a town. sun fan had a whole ramble on the previous page, of how Pusheen seemed different, and inD focused on "agreeing" on an aspect of it that was actually seeming to go against sun fan's conclusion that Pusheen may be a town. So inD framed it as agreement, despite that 'agreement' basically implying that sun fan should give up his feeling. (Actually, I am having trouble seeing that as being from two mafias talking to each other, so I think I may have read into them not talking to each other at the start too much.) Especially since sun fan follows up with inD, asking to make sure inD gets sun fan's meaning, while inD seems to keep passively doubting WV (#394, pg. 20).

I feel a bit better about sun fan's posts around page 20 and 21. He mostly seems to be trying to figure out blind. I do not really know, why a mafia would have this reaction to somebody's vote:



Although, I actually just realized sun fan was sussing Wineandbread, when I have felt Wineandbread was really trying to figure things out. It was something to do with how Wine was voting, but I did not really get it. But I should probably explain my Wine lean, in another message. (Well, sun fan changed his mind on that, apparently? And changed his other leans that I thought were the most odd (inD and blind?))

I do kind of like at the start of today, inD being annoyed that nobody wanted to talk to him (438-439, pg. 22)


I am confused by the first part still.


dadv?

So...my thought from my first readthrough, was that at least one of sun fan and inD were likely a mafia. I was hoping that a town one of them would die in the night actually, because it would be easier to reevaluate if I was wrong then. But having gone back through it I am leaning more that it would not be both, and that I am sussing inD more.

indheart

I was focused on inDheart and the sun fan for this readthrough, but there were a few other things I noticed, that I will put in a separate post.

it does imo

time to blast inD after benguinerino no-posterino-pizza-dinner-butchered-joke-oh-me-no

Also star grade a post btw

Originally Posted by roundbox

While it's not the amount of "work" you might have wanted, it doesn't make "zero" logical sense. The way you're emphasizing how poor it is for the wolves to not have killed the IC paints you in a light that you're strongly disagreeing with wolf strategy, and would suggest that you would kill the IC if you were a wolf. This could be a construction to make you look town because the IC would be dead if you were a wolf according to your dissent.

who said I was voting for you anyway lmao

ROBLOX, HI.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by roundbox

While it's not the amount of "work" you might have wanted, it doesn't make "zero" logical sense. The way you're emphasizing how poor it is for the wolves to not have killed the IC paints you in a light that you're strongly disagreeing with wolf strategy, and would suggest that you would kill the IC if you were a wolf. This could be a construction to make you look town because the IC would be dead if you were a wolf according to your dissent.

K. That means nothing because if I'm a wolf of course it is?
And if you're a wolf then everything you said is a construction as well?
And if Raeko's a wolf....actually bad example never mind
But point stands yeah I could be hamming it up to 11 but considering I've brought it up on my own like maybe twice (start of phases) and every other time is when I've been prompted you are vastly misusing the phrase "overemphasizing" to the point that this is weak. If I brought it up literally every other post maybe you'd have something.

But chances are really good if you point to me saying it I can point to the prompt on why I'm bringing it up again so you know, you can either try playing the game now or we can play that shtick for awhile. Your call.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

does this post matter

I mean, yeah?

I'll admit nothing there hints at a FG target and it is a pretty beefy post.

[the sun fan]

not caught up; does anyone remember star saying /anything/ about funnygurl?
I'll look if I have to

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

K. That means nothing because if I'm a wolf of course it is?
And if you're a wolf then everything you said is a construction as well?
And if Raeko's a wolf....actually bad example never mind
But point stands yeah I could be hamming it up to 11 but considering I've brought it up on my own like maybe twice (start of phases) and every other time is when I've been prompted you are vastly misusing the phrase "overemphasizing" to the point that this is weak. If I brought it up literally every other post maybe you'd have something.

But chances are really good if you point to me saying it I can point to the prompt on why I'm bringing it up again so you know, you can either try playing the game now or we can play that shtick for awhile. Your call.

if you want to stick with ideas of construction and try to apply it elsewhere, do so. throwing it out as example logic doesn't make my point fall apart.

also, what the fuck is your definition of playing the game? am I not here, posting? this phase ended up on a bad time for my activity levels so I'm doing as best as I can with what time I have. you shouldn't be so surprised that my reads are closer to surface level than mega analysis with the amount of time presented today. if you look at previous days I've done more analytical posting and now you want to lynch me for having a sub-par day because I'm short on time?

k

[the sun fan]

yeah ok

star saying that she wanted to wait until the night phase was over before looking at her scumreads of inD/myself solidifies in my mind that she did not shoot that night, probably either.