TWG CLXXXI - TWGreeD - Game Thread

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

No offense, but I'm slightly wolf reading you for doing such a big wall of text.

........................

[Hakulyte]

It's still a beautiful wall.

[inDheart]

not sure how much else i have to say, i've thought over what i think is all the claim stuff a few times and i'm not sure i have a better lead than anyone else thinking about it. refer sunfan's post i guess

haku and raeko are both claimed fortune tellers, which i guess work like role cops less than they're connected to the tarot theme. if haku said anything inaccurate about his role, it'd be raeko's job to correct that, and that didn't happen, so might as well buy that the role exists

wv had the super seer thing, which i've spent a while nervous about. the main question to ask is just, do you believe dbp is a wolf, and if so, it's not worth reconsidering wv ever. they're always an opposite-alignment dyad

charu had the mystic-ish shot a while ago, which is the thing that arguably says the least, and that's been rather talked over especially when people thought it was weak. for completeness for myself, i did not request a power during twilight or the night that charu got the count

sunfan's had a vote power, which is good only insofar as we know vote powers are in the game. i buy that an alignment-dependent vote power could exist but obviously am not thinking it's 100% town

the count of role claims all stemming from the previous night, if all town, is like...4? with heavy resulting downsides for town, which sounds. steep. the powers were all gated and we triggered the wheel thing, I Guess, and that had obvious and significant downsides

roundbox is maybe dying, maybe not now. i encourage people to run the numbers themselves and decide whether they think a wolf has died before blindly voting NL. i know sunfan didn't want to discuss it but really you need to be sold on doing that because the numbers are now close enough to have to worry. as part of that you can decide whether roundbox is a wolf - he doesn't have a reason to tell the truth about the curse he got if he is, so don't assume he's going to die if you think he's a wolf

the game, anecdotally, doesn't feel like it has 3 wolves in it. because like, let's run it down
-you have mml, who has gotten into semantics fights with people and i think in ~any other game by now someone'd have broken in to go "ok break it up you're town"
-you have raeko, who's just not very active and doesn't feel like a player in this game, but is possibly in it due to having the same claim as haku
-you have haku, whose schedule makes having a consistent presence hard, has done some things that were characteristic of his town game, was being pushed on some by dbp, and potentially derptold really hard on wolf sabotage
-you have wv, who's just always the opposite of dbp
-you have roundbox, who reacted really strongly to the eod yday and. i'm not really sure what else. sorry, i'm not sure you did a thing that just really hit it off to make me go like "head nod this guy is a town gamer" until maybe that
-you have charu, whose sticking around past the lynch last night is something that just feels good to me
-and you have sunfan, who potentially has an angle through all of this by wanting to lynch raeko for a long long time, but he basically used his vote yesterday to not do the mechanical thing for once. he's also written some of the best posts in the game and it's worth engaging with him on those, because for a game that feels like this, that's really what you need. i'm not sure i'm doing that with this post so much as casting thoughts all over the place, but you know

i think i just wager the game on wv being town from there. the other reads feel weasely. the mml and haku reads don't feel fair. but i know some of those people have to be town, and near everyone has glimmers of a case there

i do wanna add the caveat to the votecount analysis that a lot of votes have been cast late in days here, at points where i don't think they'd prove advantageous busing-wise. to quote knights somewhere, lolbusing in no-flip, probably especially when you're that close to deadline. the look at the manti/raeko dueling wagons is pretty good though bc it'd match his hypothesis about wolves being able to stack votes on someone and get away with it in the long run

max 1 in: haku, raeko
hopefully 1 left outside that (it is following my assumptions)
roundbox isn't with haku i don't think
a lot of people don't feel like they could be with mml but he just seems to have that effect sometimes. he would have done some decent distancing from backpack

sorry that i've played the game pretty loose and gotten pretty heated. i'm not gonna lie and say it's been fun, but it has been some nice escapism at least, and i hope i was decent enough comic relief for some amount of time

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

It's still a beautiful wall.

you've read at most 40% of it so
whatever

wall size is not indicative of alignment

[inDheart]

yeah ok i was more than fine even without needing vet status

[the sun fan]

2 things:

1) I think inD is about to die (perhaps in addition to the presumed wolf nightkill) because I think he was only temporarily revived. This is a hunch and nothing else. A full revive is way too strong otherwise given everything that we saw with PRs.

2) I am a pseudo vigilante. If people are curious, the name of the role is Joker. I named two names tonight, and the shot is between the both of them. It is randomly decided and I am not informed of how this rand is decided. I named raeko and Lar.

If raeko or Lar dies, presumably in addition to someone else, then they were town and that's all we know.

If one of them does not die, the only information that we learn is that there is at least one wolf between raeko and lar.

Assuming that Lar doesn't die, I am definitely in favor of lynching him tomorrow still over raeko. I think Lar's lack of talking about PRs is a little damning.

The first two times, I did not request a PR.

[inDheart]

ah i see why you'd want to wait on that then

good shit

[FreezinIce]

Stop posting, multiple things are being resolved

[FreezinIce]

Charu has died

[FreezinIce]

The tarot curse The Hanged Man has taken effect.

A player has been cursed with the binding noose.

A sense of inevitability is in the air...

[FreezinIce]

Day 5 begins now and ends in 48 hours

Edit: Time has been updated

[inDheart]

no lynch

[inDheart]

unvote

if i understand correctly, my vote is now worth 1.1

[the sun fan]

there is at least one wolf between raeko and lar then

[Hakulyte]

Is there value in just insta'ing no lynch here ?

[Wayward Vagabond]

Poor rb hahaha

[Wayward Vagabond]

I don't understand the charu kill

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Is there value in just insta'ing no lynch here ?

it saves roundbox but there's the part of me that just is always going But At What Cost

bc if this is f7 then we very likely just lose on the spot

lynching is how we're supposed to remove wolves, and if we believe sunfan, we have info on one

[the sun fan]

the only fear here is if there are 3 wolves alive and like
how in god's name are there ever 3 wolves alive right now

[inDheart]

sunfan, by any chance, is that what the joker did in the deck of many things game?