TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

[Hakulyte]

We did it fam, 9 Seers!

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Charu

Oh, one other thing (Sorry for posting a lot, SHIET).

I think the lynch on Shadowolfe was kind of garbage tier and I want all of you to look back on that phase and understand why it was a garbage tier lynch.

Other then me having my facts all kinds of wrong (which I deserve criticism over) I stand by my logic: he who lies > he who is absent!

Oh.....and yeah, yeah DFR? Clearly I was probably most town at that point

[MixMasterLar]

Haku you deserve alot more credit then you re getting you did good

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Other then me having my facts all kinds of wrong (which I deserve criticism over) I stand by my logic: he who lies > he who is absent!

Oh.....and yeah, yeah DFR? Clearly I was probably most town at that point

Yuup, Lynch all Liars!

Also just left a last post in game chat for ya, check it out (:

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Haku you deserve alot more credit then you re getting you did good

You mean; "your death made this game a lot easier".

Kappa

[Hakulyte]

Just kidding, well played. I didn't expect the "pretend to be Seer" strategy to work that well.

Juckter1 impressed me. I couldn't read him as Seer at all on the first Day. (that's a good thing)

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Precarious played well, although semi-robotically. My issue with his vote on james was that, if he was avoiding voting MML to avoid a vote on his green check, then he would've remembered that James was his green check the day before!

James was actually my green check that day. That was kind of the problem. I didn't have time to make sure that I was actually lynching James (as opposed to just creating another RNG contestant, which is what actually happened). Either way, though, by doing so, I was conceding that I wasn't actually the seer by voting someone I had "green checked." Had I had time to actually follow what was going on, I would have left my vote on Aryxi (I could have thrown AA under the bus, but being a lone wolf with a still living seer would have been a bad situation, particularly since even if I had killed the seer other people would be confirmed green).

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

Gonna answer this here because yeah.

Just want to point out to our good pal Pre here that wolves, before this win, have always won this setup. However, this was a first that everyone claimed (or said something of the fact).

I wasn't here for the previous games, so I can't really comment on them, but the mass seer fake claiming is REALLY powerful in this setting. With only 9 players, each individual green check means something. The mass false claiming allows the seer to post their results without being targeted, and even if they're killed by mischance, their results aren't lost. This means that even in a worst case scenario, the town is going to gain real information, and since the mass results hide the seer, it makes it highly likely they survive at least until D2, and a decent chance to survive to D3+. Obviously in this game the math was skewed somewhat by one wolf dying in the first two days, but a situation where there aren't many players and a seer can safely get results out without being targeted leans town. That doesn't even account for this issue of players being constrained by their own non-seer results (in my case, I had to abandon the seer pose to vote James). Part of the issue is that the game simply resolves quickly, so it's possible that a town win looks more commanding than it actually is, but even assuming no wolf deaths, it would still take until D4 to even potentially force LYLO, and that information is always out there with role flips.

Essentially, wolves almost necessarily need to kill the seer on D1 or N1 to win. It kind of sounds like that had always happened to this point, which is really improbable to begin with, but it becomes even harder in the face of this particular tactic. Again, I'd recommend eliminating the N0 result, but I understand if people don't agree.

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

You read the full thing? Wow, and you weren't even in the game :O
You're playing in AA's game, right? Town missed ya this game >.>

yeah, it was relaxing because this weekend was not great for me, so it was nice to pop in at night and just read along instead of posting. i bought some nice shirts though so that's a highlight

full games are great to me now because the 24h nights let me just take whole real-life days off the game, which i really like having for my own sake

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

You mean; "your death made this game a lot easier".

Kappa

when AA posted "finally" after your flip, i thought it was actually a reaction to you being dead, lol

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by thesunfan

James May

Good to see you back, as I haven't seen you in a game in quite a while.

[danceflashrevo]

MML I knew there was a wolf in between you two and I thought AA had hard softed

fuck you aa, fuck you 1000x i'm not letting you pull that on me ever again

[danceflashrevo]

also you were very tunnely and jump to conclusiony which didn't settle very well with me and only helped me believe that aa did soft. so.... idk about that most town part

[danceflashrevo]

and real talk i shouldn't have been top 3 in posts. that's bad. very bad. i'm quiet, wtf guys

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Precarious

I wasn't here for the previous games, so I can't really comment on them, but the mass seer fake claiming is REALLY powerful in this setting. With only 9 players, each individual green check means something. The mass false claiming allows the seer to post their results without being targeted, and even if they're killed by mischance, their results aren't lost. This means that even in a worst case scenario, the town is going to gain real information, and since the mass results hide the seer, it makes it highly likely they survive at least until D2, and a decent chance to survive to D3+. Obviously in this game the math was skewed somewhat by one wolf dying in the first two days, but a situation where there aren't many players and a seer can safely get results out without being targeted leans town. That doesn't even account for this issue of players being constrained by their own non-seer results (in my case, I had to abandon the seer pose to vote James). Part of the issue is that the game simply resolves quickly, so it's possible that a town win looks more commanding than it actually is, but even assuming no wolf deaths, it would still take until D4 to even potentially force LYLO, and that information is always out there with role flips.

Essentially, wolves almost necessarily need to kill the seer on D1 or N1 to win. It kind of sounds like that had always happened to this point, which is really improbable to begin with, but it becomes even harder in the face of this particular tactic. Again, I'd recommend eliminating the N0 result, but I understand if people don't agree.

i don't think the setup is necessarily wolf-sided given that you missed the seer twice in a row. leaving things to random chance, you had as much a chance of hitting juckter as he did seering you in that state of the game, and had random.org been a fairer beast (either that or you made a better vote) you would still have had the numbers advantage and been in lylo instead at the start of the last day. even if juckter gets his red check, you just go to f3 with no cop. there's still a game there. this particular game was, in a few ways, outside normal operating parameters, and that doesn't signal balance issues on its own

also no wolf deaths means lylo on the third day, not fourth (cf. turbo 4), and random chance would dictate seer getting zero red checks. but RNG isn't a good strategy for this game.

[danceflashrevo]

precarious i'm very curious of your decision to kill me especially since i flopped on aa at the end, i would've been an easy target considering how floppy i was on him throughout the game

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

and real talk i shouldn't have been top 3 in posts. that's bad. very bad. i'm quiet, wtf guys

some of our usual big posters weren't in this game or the cancelled one, so the rest of us have to step it up and drive, and it's good that you were as present as you were

quality of posts is also important

e: also i have learned to use multiquote woohoo

e2: also also, it took me this long to figure out why sunfan asked me how long i've been lurking twg. this long!

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by inDheart

i don't think the setup is necessarily wolf-sided given that you missed the seer twice in a row. leaving things to random chance, you had as much a chance of hitting juckter as he did seering you in that state of the game, and had random.org been a fairer beast (either that or you made a better vote) you would still have had the numbers advantage and been in lylo instead at the start of the last day. even if juckter gets his red check, you just go to f3 with no cop. there's still a game there. this particular game was, in a few ways, outside normal operating parameters, and that doesn't signal balance issues on its own

also no wolf deaths means lylo on the third day, not fourth (cf. turbo 4), and random chance would dictate seer getting zero red checks. but RNG isn't a good strategy for this game.

You're right about the three days vs. four; I accidentally started mentally from nine town rather than nine players. And to be fair that does make a big, big difference in how I see this.

Still, the thing about the equal chances is that under the current format, the seer can still provide valuable information even if killed immediately, since role flips at death and (like everyone else) the seer would have posted a D1 result. A single green read is meaningful in a scenario where (assuming a wolf wasn't lynched on D1, which would obviously be a huge boon for town anyway) there would be only 7 people (and 2 of those are wolves). The consequences of letting the seer survive even one day in the current format was borne out here, as things got very crowded structurally. But assume Juckter had been killed N2 and hadn't received a red read N1. Two town would be exonerated immediately (yes, there's the possibility that one or both of the green reads died previously), which would be enormously useful in a 3:2 setting. Two confirmed town would mean two wolves in a pool of three remaining players.

And to be fair, at the same time, in a 3:2 setting, it would probably be time for a wolf to commit to hard fakeclaiming/countering the actual seer (assuming the seer is alive). So I can see how it could play out differently, but I feel the pre-game read does lean town.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

also you were very tunnely and jump to conclusiony which didn't settle very well with me and only helped me believe that aa did soft. so.... idk about that most town part

Ok, I will contest this.

As much as AA was going on about me not having reasons, I actually did take the time to point out what I didn't like all the way through. Like I explicitly stated I didny expect his answer to the initial question regarding Commentrics and I even pointed out what was weird about it.

I consistently made these types of comments.

Granted no one else was given me content, and I actually did try to back off AA to call out Juckter but he's the one who kept pulling me back into it (see him pressuring me to give a "better" reason for my scum read, after he gave no reason for his) so yeah, we kept at it long and hard....but that's not tunneling. Not anymore then AA was trying to do to me.

I'm sorry if he was your main townread and if rubbed you the wrong way, but I saw something weird, went for it, and struck gold. For the situation it was the best choice

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by inDheart

yeah, it was relaxing because this weekend was not great for me, so it was nice to pop in at night and just read along instead of posting. i bought some nice shirts though so that's a highlight

full games are great to me now because the 24h nights let me just take whole real-life days off the game, which i really like having for my own sake



when AA posted "finally" after your flip, i thought it was actually a reaction to you being dead, lol

No I was faking a reaction to our cop living

Even though I was mad I misread

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

No I was faking a reaction to our cop living

Even though I was mad I misread

yeah i know, you "explained" after all once asked

oh hey MML, speaking of commentrics, that would have sunk you if you were in the cancelled game!