TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

[ShadoWolfe]

I guess I'll jot down my thoughts while I have a little time to myself.

If MML is a wolf, he took a risky gambit betting there was no cop in this setup. The reason I don't buy this world is because it requires premeditation on another level from MML.
See, if MML were to have claimed under pressure at EoD alone, been saved from the lynch as a result, and then come in here with his blocked result on Xel of all people, I would've been a little more than skeptical.
But that didn't happen. Instead, MML both softed (lol clicking the video and watching to the end makes it obvious in retrospect when he specifically says "detective lei wulong", kind of a hard soft but I think its clear now how few people really pay attention to the meme/reference videos posted) in D0 and *started* the hypocop thread. This means he'd have been planning to fakeclaim exactly cop since D0 and planting seeds to do so.
I don't see that happening here, and won't entertain the world where "there is no cop" or "MML isn't the cop" so long as MML remains unCCed.

I like Gradiant. Aside from MML's greencheck (possibility of godfather requires tinfoiling Gradi's slot indefinitely), I feel like the nuances he's reacting to and calling out would be hard to catch as wolf. Ask me for more examples if you care, but the stuff like the "odd" post for instance, as small as it is, is really hard to fake. Not because of his own response (anyone can say "odd), but because of what caught his attention, if that makes sense.

I'm liking Antori more and more as time progresses, but I hate his conclusions.

I will reserve judgment on Hakulyte pending his posts tonight (he normally starts posting at 3-4am my time , which is in 3-4 hours). When last he was available, he seemed like townHaku, and I can't judge him for having to work annoying hours when I'm in the same boat.

inD is weird to read. Despite what seems to be towny prods, I haven't been able to shake the feeling of what people in D0 described as being "aloof" all game. I waffle on him more than Mitt Romney waffled on tax reform, but overall I think excluding EoD yesterday his process has largely been consistent and his logic mostly clear. I think my issue is a vibe that he doesn't truly care about the questions he asks, which either means he's doing it to look good or asking questions just to keep people posting and pushing the game along. Not looking at him for a lynch today, but worse things have happened.

I liked Daikyi's progression until this current phase. His list only served to give me the feeling he hasn't read much at all of last phase or bothered focusing on the nuance of interactions, even among players he says he's read. Aside from not being bothered to read me or inD, his read on roundbox remained exactly the same despite the drastic changes in roundbox' gamestate. What worried me most was his read of raeko was "sheeping roundbox on this." despite roundbox himself having changed his read on her drastically (I'll take my credit for this anytime :bow::wave since Daikyi last commented, there was no mention of that in his read of her, roundbox, or myself. just a "sheeping roundbox on this". Desperately want further clarification on your actual thoughts on the critical interactions / posts from last phase that led to where we're at now. Especially because most of those critical interactions had to do with roundbox, your top town.

I can't deny that roundbox' appeals to emotion and restatements of his own towniness elicited doubt in my mind as to his wolfiness at first. I went back to see town!box fight to appeal to town in the gun game I just hosted, and the differences are stark. Here, he states and restates the perils of lynching him because he's town and that a lynch on him is lynching town. There, he went to work immediately trying to prove his own innocence and drowned out all claims otherwise with post after post of alternating hunting and defense. There are differences in the game, yes, but for that town!box to have all night knowing he's going to be under pressure today to come into day with AoE is ... almost too weird. @roundbox talk to me about the harms of a massclaim here today because I thought it'd be bad until I started actually contemplating it

Raeko until further notice. I've hashed and rehashed my case on her, but the last straw here is opportunistically avoiding the danger zone in these first hours of phase. I'm sure she has an excuse, but she used very personal excuses in the game where she was SK and you only get one shot at misusing irl reasons for being out of thread.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Actually Shado if you come back, can you explain how Antori's post could be guinine to me?

Maybe I'm starting to get tilted Idk but he's starting to look like he doesn't believe what he's posting

yeah sure it'll be the last thing before I go to sleep, but which post do you want me to look at?

[Hakulyte]

Scenario A: MML got framed by wolves + roleblocked. Wolves are hoping he self-destruct because he's still alive to make town kill a PR for them. Wolves fucked up and assumed Xel was a PR for some reasons.

Scenario B: MML is wolfing and taking advantage of Xel's death/pretending to get roleblocked to not deal with his cop check.
His goal for the phase is to remain alive and get away with his claim because this setup can work in multiple ways. Gradiant could be a potential partner, but this can go either way. Having 2 wolves hiding behind a hard claim banner keeps poe fairly big.
Ulterior motive would be to survive last phase the previous phase and push the lynch on FFA.

That being said, I'm not getting the why for the Xel NK. Feels like a random chaos kill.

Originally Posted by Antori

i dont see you pushing raeko at all you're really convinced on lynching town instead

That's a strange choice of words.

On what basis are you saying that "he's convinced on lynching town" ?

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Can you elaborate on this thought?

As wolf, wouldn't everyone be a safe green check to make? Also do you think he starts a hypocop train as wolf?

That's double edged. A wolf could want to hypocop to find the real cop especially in a situation where all the wolves are alive. This setup can roll multiple cops too. There might be enough technical reasons for this.

Could go either way tbh because cops need to eventually leave posterity in case they get NK'd randomly.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

If MML is a wolf, he took a risky gambit betting there was no cop in this setup.

Weird, I thought this setup could have multiple cops.

[Hakulyte]

Is there a world where the SK exists and an angel found the soft and saved MML somehow ?

That would imply some badass roleblockers constantly stopping a 2nd NK tho.

[Antori]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Antori

What the actual fuck

you glanced over my post but didn't answer my "who are your wolf team suspects" question, dont blame me if i suspect you even more

[Hakulyte]

I'm currently under the impression that this game revolves around sitting down, creating expectations/standards on how good players are supposed to be and push down players to their doom one by one over sub optimal play rather than finding wolfy stuff because it's like the players that are most likely the wolves here are proofreading the hell out of their games.

Just a thought based on who got lynched so far.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Daikyi

11) Hakulyte - kinda dropped off the face of the planet, which is also pretty worrying because i think his town game heavily revolves around trying to make

I only had 23 posts in the Sunnyvale game we just played and I've been struggling with being around due to work. In your defense, that game was OOTC, but I wasn't overly active in the discord too.

You're probably used to play games where I have 100+ posts. I didn't have a job at the time and I could just be here and think all the time which in retrospect was a bad thing because I kept overthinking.

Honestly, I wonder if we have enough info from night actions to win by PoE already.

[Hakulyte]

I'd rather do this before mylo for obvious reasons too.

[Hakulyte]

ps: I have a green check on raeko this phase. Previous phase was Daikyi.

[ShadoWolfe]

no MML yet huh @MML show me the post whenever then

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Weird, I thought this setup could have multiple cops.

It can. Makes the gambit even riskier.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'm currently under the impression that this game revolves around sitting down, creating expectations/standards on how good players are supposed to be and push down players to their doom one by one over sub optimal play rather than finding wolfy stuff because it's like the players that are most likely the wolves here are proofreading the hell out of their games.

Just a thought based on who got lynched so far.

Can't blame you for thinking this. It seems to be an inherent bias in mafia to lynch weaker plays in early game when the *wolfier* plays aren't evident. WV didn't seem to have much interest in solving game, though, so I can't fault that as a D0 lynch. FFA I think did project town well enough D0, but did us no favors once he declared himself derpcleared and memed defenses like "why would you vote me when I'm confirmed" or the meme about coming into thread and waiting for game to resolve. It's a damn shame, too, because that EoD was settled by a hair.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Honestly, I wonder if we have enough info from night actions to win by PoE already.

Can you walk me through what info you got from the night actions? Without revealing your own role, if you are one.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

ps: I have a green check on raeko this phase. Previous phase was Daikyi.

are you for real? not meming?

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Can you walk me through what info you got from the night actions? Without revealing your own role, if you are one.

That sounds like a trick question.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

are you for real? not meming?

hypocop -shrugs-

[Hakulyte]

Well, don't take checks for granted because godfather etc.

[Hakulyte]

Thinking about building a case on Antori vs Gradiant because this feels like a voting parking more than anything serious.

Occam's Razor pointing to MML too imo.

Based on the nature of the setup, I don't think MML can be CC'd due to the possibility of multiple cops.

[ShadoWolfe]

shiiiiiiiiiit

ok

assuming both Haku and MML are telling the truth

fuuuuuck I need sleep

assuming both Haku and MML are telling the truth

that leaves

exactly roundbox / inD / Antori

that's a plausible world for sure. Yesterday before EoD I was swearing it was roundbox/raeko/inD, but the surprising part about this would be Antori.

well fuuuck two living cops 3 living green checks is so OP that it's hard to believe. Don't want to make the same
mistake as last game of not believing it because it's easy, but maaaan this is nice.

Ok I think at this point we *have* to massclaim to try and figure out the setup that was rolled. Wolves probably have to claim PR or they'll get steamrolled, so at that point we find the most plausible world / setup and lynch it to truth.

I'm VT.

Claim Record:

MML - Cop, N1 Green on Gradiant, N2 blocked
Hakulyte - Cop, N1 Green on Daikyi, N2 Green on Raeko
ShadoWolfe - VT

Gradiant
Daikyi
Raeko
Antori
inD
roundbox

[Hakulyte]

I'm not sure how this setup works for locking possibilities.

[Hakulyte]

You're also forgetting godfather.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

That sounds like a trick question.

posted before I saw your claim

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

hypocop -shrugs-

hypocop doesn't exist anymore fam everyone who's posted has broken cover at this point so it's either your claim was valid or you can retract right now, there's no retracting later

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Well, don't take checks for granted because godfather etc.

yeah good point