Old 06-26-2018, 08:37 PM   #981
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Originally Posted by Sakura Ogami View Post
It's never in the acquisitioner's best interest to get the wolf this phase. The correct mechanical play is for them to have 1 wolf, 1 acqui, and 2 town in final four.

You should know this
Really? Why?
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:37 PM   #982
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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So if you were really on the town's team, you'd want a no lynch. This is definitely wrong, though.
No lynch is great

I just want to waggle my dick around and solve the game before it's out of my hands
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:39 PM   #983
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Really? Why?
Because it's easier to operate when there's split attention as opposed to devoted attention to hunting a single person
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:40 PM   #984
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

I'll have you suck my dick in postgame when I'm right. Maybe Makoto is the acqui and they didn't even bother showing up, like what happened D1.

That's the detective's reasoning, we have 20 minutes left.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:44 PM   #985
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

That's actually consistent with the acqui's behavior this game... popping in at start, and either not showing up, or appearing with like 30 mins left only

no lynch and hope they cannibalize each other in the night I guess

I just want it to be clear that I solved this game
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:46 PM   #986
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Wait, no, this is a loss no matter what, isn't it
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:46 PM   #987
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

So, not sure what to make of Makoto. Their early play was dominated by jokes and sarcasm, but hinted at greater things to come. They took a more traditional approach during the second day, but still noted low motivation. Since then, they've made a series of sort-of excuses for inactivity. Today, they made a couple early posts, then disappeared (although that too was telegraphed):

Quote:
Originally Posted by Makoto Naegi View Post
I have to leave again for a long stretch but I'll be back before eod assuming I don't fall asleep from exhaustion
The biggest departure from their usual play was obviously their opening post of the day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Makoto Naegi View Post
Now the Aqui really comes into play. My first reads are that there's no way kyoko is a wolf but obv she could be compromised. I'd give her 70/30 odds in favor of being town because I think she's an unattractive aqui target. If you want to be in my town circle you need to convince me your the same person.

Byakuya I feel like it's 33/33/33. They are the wild card here, they have been playing solid but most good wolves do. He would be the most likely target for aquisition because he has a lot of town cred without an annoying quirk to play around.

Sakura is most likely mafia giving her 60/15/25 odds of mafia / Aqui / town respectively. I doubt that she was taken over because of the pressure she was under. I think weak scum is most likely with an outside chance for weak town (like myself if I'm being honest but let's not live in the past)

sakura until further notice
I'll ignore that their numbers don't add up, since they're probably a representation of personal ideas than a meaningful alignment algorithm.

This post has some problems, though. If I'm reading it correctly, they don't think I'm a wolf, but think I might be the acqui. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me: I can read myself as a wolf much more easily than acqui, since my writing style is designed to be difficult to emulate.

Byakuya's assessment is more or less fine; I agree with the basics, although I feel like Byakuya has adequately preserved their tone and underlying game approach--but since this was the first post of the day, they had nothing to go on. Byakuya, on account of probably being the most towny-looking player going into the day, would have been a reasonable acquisition.

The exact numbers for Sakura (60+15+25=100) actually bother me, because their numbers elsewhere don't add up. I also don't like that, although Makoto has Sakura as a strong favorite as wolf, there isn't any real reasoning in that direction.

***

As for their actual play, it's hard to judge. Byakuya made a sort of town-Makoto case yesterday, but to me it's not especially compelling. Their game has been so low key that it's difficult to assign profoundly pro-town or pro-wolf traits to them.

Ultimately, I have a difficult time seeing Makoto as an anti-town player, since they're still not here. Admittedly, they suggested as much earlier, but I'd feel a lone wolf or acqui would want to control EoD as best they can, particularly since if they're not both roles in one, there's another anti-town player able to potentially conspire against them.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:47 PM   #988
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Acqui takes over Kyoko in the night, Kyoko shoots me because she thinks I'm the acquisitioner

leaving 1 acqui, 1 town
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:48 PM   #989
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Fuck you Mukuro.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:52 PM   #990
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Wait, no, this is a loss no matter what, isn't it
Did you even read what I wrote earlier? No, it's not, but it's luck dependent.

If we No Lynch, everyone goes into the night alive. That would be, specifically, either three town and an acquired wolf, or two town, one acquired town, and one wolf.

In the former case, we could win by lynching now. But the latter case would lose if we lynch, no matter who we lynch.

In the former case, we automatically lose if we don't lynch now--if the Acqui gets to use the the wolf power (kill, then acquire). If they acquire without being able to kill, then we'd go into a 2:1 tomorrow.

In the latter case, we would need to hope that either the wolf kills the acqui before they can acquire (I assume this would be the case based on the existence of the bulletproof option for the acqui), or that the wolf targets the existing acqui, fails, and then is acquired. Either case would result in a 2:1 tomorrow.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:54 PM   #991
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Did you even read what I wrote earlier? No, it's not, but it's luck dependent.

If we No Lynch, everyone goes into the night alive. That would be, specifically, either three town and an acquired wolf, or two town, one acquired town, and one wolf.

In the former case, we could win by lynching now. But the latter case would lose if we lynch, no matter who we lynch.

In the former case, we automatically lose if we don't lynch now--if the Acqui gets to use the the wolf power (kill, then acquire). If they acquire without being able to kill, then we'd go into a 2:1 tomorrow.

In the latter case, we would need to hope that either the wolf kills the acqui before they can acquire (I assume this would be the case based on the existence of the bulletproof option for the acqui), or that the wolf targets the existing acqui, fails, and then is acquired. Either case would result in a 2:1 tomorrow.
Not speaking mechanically. Whoever the wolf is thinks I'm the acquisitioner and will nightkill me. Which... yeah.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:54 PM   #992
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Fuck you Mukuro.
We've finally found something we can agree on.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:55 PM   #993
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Byakuya scaring me by just watching and not doing anything
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:55 PM   #994
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Kyoko, do you think the wolf has been acquisitioned or not?
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:56 PM   #995
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

I'm at a loss for what to do. I'm leaning towards no-lynch, but if the acquisitioner really did acquire the wolf, then we lose.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:56 PM   #996
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

We're low on time. Do you have any actual reads Byakuya?
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:56 PM   #997
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Kyoko, do you think the wolf has been acquisitioned or not?
INB4 Kyoko answers yes and uses that as a reason to get a vote off on me
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:57 PM   #998
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Don't fucking CFD here assholes. Make your votes clear
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:57 PM   #999
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

Both of you fuckers waiting for the other to make a vote so you can win

Fuck you Makoto
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:58 PM   #1000
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Default Re: TWG CLXXVIII: Danganronpa [Game Thread]

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Kyoko, do you think the wolf has been acquisitioned or not?

I'm like 50 Sakura, 30 you, 20 Makoto on the wolf. So I'm split on that. I'm leaning toward voting Sakura, but I kind of want to punt on the whole thing and just hope the night works out.
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