TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

[talisman]

I would bet more money that you're wrong... if not by typing style alone (even behind fake sns), it can't be that hard to figure out who the other wolves are. And by now I'm sure the wolves have asked their master "is it ok if I vote X?" and have gotten a pretty decent idea of who the others are.

ps about the post he referenced: yes that was his own. But I was referring to when he cited me talking about blah. If I've got the post you're replying to correct.

pps all of this you = kilga

[talisman]

are you kidding? that's the conversation?

According to hans you guys "talked" about it before you posted... yet nowhere in there is there any mention of the people you were attacking getting wolfed or that you even received his pm.

Plus, why is he sending you copies of a pm he sent, as I'm guessing, only to tps?

edit: also, this conversation happened after you posted, earlier today. Either that or during the night. Hans was referring to one from before your first post. Regardless, I think the above question is FAR more important. And just to put this out there... was anyone else contacted by hans to share a copy of his pm? Did anyone else receive this pm?

[Kilgamayan]

You're assuming the wolves are using said anonymous names to actually converse in depth. They may very well not be, which would be a perfect explanation of your inability to find many groups of three. With the only blue present being a glorified psychic, the lack of information would combine very well with a lack of connections for the wolf team, as has been demonstrated through various players' frustration about lack of information and, again, your inability to find maybe groupings.

On the subject of convos, there was also this from the other night, before any talk of a Tps PM. I guess Hans was referencing to it as well in his posts.

NotSoFarOff (10:54:40 PM): Okay

Auto response from bjstrattonIM (10:54:40 PM): Not here.

And no, telling me I am here is not going to magically make me stop not being here.

NotSoFarOff (10:54:42 PM): So TWG
NotSoFarOff (10:54:52 PM): **** YOU ****** AND YOUR IDLENESS
bjstrattonIM (10:55:23 PM): Whutchu need?
NotSoFarOff (10:55:42 PM): o hai
NotSoFarOff (11:01:11 PM): Do you feel that we have lynched a wolf yet?
bjstrattonIM (11:02:09 PM): I don't think Neo was one.
bjstrattonIM (11:02:39 PM): I wouldn't be surprised if Fish was the master, although the fact that the pattern of kills hasn't changed makes me think twice about it.
NotSoFarOff (11:03:18 PM): Plus the fact that we almost never lynch a wolf day 1...let alone the MW...
NotSoFarOff (11:03:26 PM): That's too much to consider, for me.
bjstrattonIM (11:03:42 PM): Well.
bjstrattonIM (11:04:03 PM): Statistically, all past Day 1 results have no bearing on this one.
NotSoFarOff (11:04:16 PM): I guess
NotSoFarOff (11:04:26 PM): But you can't ignore it, either.
bjstrattonIM (11:04:50 PM): Given my probability class this semester, I very much can. >_>
bjstrattonIM (11:05:14 PM): Same as I can ignore five successive 6 rolls on a die when guessing what the next roll will be.
NotSoFarOff (11:05:35 PM): uh
NotSoFarOff (11:05:38 PM): uh
NotSoFarOff (11:05:50 PM): We have two more days before game over if we don't lynch a wolf.
NotSoFarOff (11:05:56 PM): I think that's right
NotSoFarOff (11:06:07 PM): yeah 2
NotSoFarOff (11:06:12 PM): Today and tomorrow
bjstrattonIM (11:06:18 PM): Given people I'm high on keep getting wolfed, I'm starting to wonder if I should go in the opposite direction.
bjstrattonIM (11:06:28 PM): Well, Guido and iggy.
NotSoFarOff (11:06:46 PM): You were suspicious of them?
bjstrattonIM (11:06:54 PM): Yeah.
bjstrattonIM (11:07:07 PM): In Day 1 voting, my guesses other than Fish were Neo and Guido.
NotSoFarOff (11:07:12 PM): I was almost sure they were human. >_>
bjstrattonIM (11:07:18 PM): And then in the list I made yesterday, I put iggy at the top.
bjstrattonIM (11:07:46 PM): So maybe I have been going in the wrong direction the whole time.
NotSoFarOff (11:07:50 PM): I still think that all of the wolves are alive
NotSoFarOff (11:07:57 PM): But check this for a second
bjstrattonIM (11:08:00 PM): So now
bjstrattonIM (11:08:00 PM): o
bjstrattonIM (11:08:01 PM): k
NotSoFarOff (11:08:16 PM): Yesterday and the day before tass was all for talisman being a wolf, right?
bjstrattonIM (11:08:22 PM): Yeah.
NotSoFarOff (11:08:50 PM):
IMO, Hans/Kilga then Afro then Jurs then Tasuke then Talisman then Blah then TPS.
NotSoFarOff (11:09:03 PM): down there 5th in his suspicion list he posted today
bjstrattonIM (11:09:19 PM): Yeah, he explained that in his previous post.
bjstrattonIM (11:09:31 PM): BUT... it makes me look away from Talisman. Considering we discussed it late last night, it would seem to be counter-productive to then kill Iggy, especially when we considering the angel (I believe) and considering the suspicion already on him.
NotSoFarOff (11:09:57 PM): meh I missed that
NotSoFarOff (11:12:05 PM): I don't know what to do
NotSoFarOff (11:12:34 PM): I think the wolves are getting off really easy right now, and I'm not sure where to go
bjstrattonIM (11:13:01 PM): Right now, I'm thinking about Afro.
NotSoFarOff (11:13:15 PM): I forgot about him
bjstrattonIM (11:13:28 PM): I was suspicious of him before but recently not so much
NotSoFarOff (11:14:07 PM): He's usually a pretty productive human, even if I think the crap he says is retarded.
NotSoFarOff (11:18:46 PM): Who is #1 on your list, afro?
bjstrattonIM (11:19:54 PM): It was iggy before.
bjstrattonIM (11:19:58 PM): Now it'd probably be Afro.
NotSoFarOff (11:21:47 PM): do you think it's possible that tass/blah blah/talis talis/tass could be wolves together
bjstrattonIM (11:23:49 PM): I could see it happening.
NotSoFarOff (11:24:22 PM): I think too much **** is flying by for that not to be true
NotSoFarOff (11:24:30 PM): or I'm just suspicious of everyone
bjstrattonIM (11:24:45 PM): :<
NotSoFarOff (11:25:05 PM): besides
NotSoFarOff (11:25:15 PM): when's the last time tass and blah agreed with each other
bjstrattonIM (11:25:31 PM): Iunno.
NotSoFarOff (11:25:36 PM): and they were all cute in the convo tass posted
NotSoFarOff (11:30:34 PM): oaky
NotSoFarOff (11:30:41 PM): people I'm not suspicious of
NotSoFarOff (11:30:49 PM): you
NotSoFarOff (11:30:51 PM): tps
NotSoFarOff (11:30:55 PM): jurs
NotSoFarOff (11:31:00 PM): tasuke
NotSoFarOff (11:31:14 PM): Which leaves tass, talis, blah, and afro.
NotSoFarOff (11:31:48 PM): I really think it's 2/3 and afro.
bjstrattonIM (11:32:00 PM): Afro would not at all surprise me.
NotSoFarOff (11:32:01 PM): Maybe.
NotSoFarOff (11:33:17 PM): I don't think Tasuke has shown enough of his face to be an active part of this game..
NotSoFarOff (11:33:42 PM): If he were a wolf, I would think he'd be more active.
NotSoFarOff (11:34:28 PM): Jurs, I'm on the fence, falling to the human side.
bjstrattonIM (11:34:36 PM): That's partly why I'm not suspicious of Tasuke myself.
bjstrattonIM (11:34:56 PM): He's also been really stupid, I can't imagine a wolf partner wouldn't be feeding him things to say.
NotSoFarOff (11:35:44 PM): If you were a wolf, I'd doubt you'd associate yourself with the night kills.
bjstrattonIM (11:39:03 PM): I meant stupid in general.
bjstrattonIM (11:39:15 PM): Or you mean me?
NotSoFarOff (11:39:23 PM): You.
NotSoFarOff (11:39:33 PM): loli
bjstrattonIM (11:42:44 PM): I suppose.
bjstrattonIM (11:42:50 PM): I'm still mad that I keep being wrong though. >_>
NotSoFarOff (11:43:53 PM): Think about my suspicions
NotSoFarOff (11:43:56 PM): I gtg
NotSoFarOff (11:44:01 PM): Later.

And before you point out that I talk about Tasuke being fed info from wolf partners being contradictory to my ideas about wolf isolation, he's a special case. I don't expect anyone else in this game right now to need that kind of assistance.

[Kilgamayan]

Also, I highly doubt any sort of "can I vote for X?" conversation has been necessary. Look at how spread out voting was the first two days. It wouldn't be hard at all for a wolf to slip in a vote for someone who has no votes on them while making up a reason they find the target to be suspicious while not putting the target in any real danger.

[talisman]

now that does clarify alot... and makes me ease off a bit. unless it's just a really good fake or something.

I'm still struck by the fact that he came to you with that pm he sent to tps before posting it.

what do you think of hans, kilga?

[JurseyRider734]

Tass, Hans's "sleep" isn't an excuse. His parents make him go to bed at like 11. It was 11:30.

Last night Hans said that maybe all three of you (tass, talisman, blah) are wolves. I wouldn't rule it out, but I said it wasn't likely. That's not even fair, that I think even the host would switch one of them. I'm not as much suspicious of blah, talisman is ehhh, Tass is eh. I really haven't looked into the posts as much because I have stuff to do until like this Saturday, which is why i haven't been posting a lot. I'm out every day doing something because I have to go somewhere on Friday.

[mead1]

About 6 hours to go.

Votes:
Talisman (1): Hans

I will attempt to be back to update this periodically.

[Tasselfoot]

Jurs and Tasuke... if EITHER of you gets a phantom today (and are human), the game is just about over. We'd need to waste ANOTHER day lynching you, and would have to hope that we pegged a wolf today, or the game would be over.

This inactivity is the single biggest reason why we're likely going to lose this game.

And Jurs... funny... you're defending Hans again. Last time you defended him, you were a wolf... no?

[talisman]

oh wtf it ends today.

ugh will vote later. That convo shook quite a bit of my certainty about a connectiong between hans and kilga. Some key issues still need to be addressed though: for example why hans went to kilga with his pm, why hans trusts kilga so much, and why hans pm'd it in the first place instead of just posting it. Plus there's a huge factor that hans and kilga being together does seem like it might be too good to be true.

Other possibilities involve weird combinations of tass and blah either together or individually with people that they've been fairly harsh on. And I'll grant kilga his point that it's still possible the wolves don't have any good idea who each other are... but by now I can't help feeling that that is fairly unlikely.

[JurseyRider734]

Originally Posted by Tasselfoot

And Jurs... funny... you're defending Hans again. Last time you defended him, you were a wolf... no?

Um I only said that because he didn't have time to tell you why he had to go, and you were mocking him for using the "excuse" of having to sleep. Get over yourself.

[Kilgamayan]

Originally Posted by talisman

what do you think of hans, kilga?

I was suspicious of him before, and there's always been the back of my mind thinking he might potentially be leading me on, but I trust him more than I used to.

Right now I place him slightly ahead of you and Tass. blah I really have no idea about. However, my highest concern is still Afro, so I'll worry about taking a solid stance later.

[Tps222]

Hans forgot some of the PM.

Alright. First of all, I need you to be honest and tell me what you think. If you think I'm a wolf, lying to me does nothing. Since you are the center of the alliance, you SHOULD have outright control of this situation, and I need to know where I stand. If I die today, whatever, but I would really like to get my suspicions across to you before that happens. I figure the best way to work this is to go through each player left in the game and give reasons as to why they could be a wolf or human.

Not too important, but might as well post the entire thing.

On to buisiness.

I have compiled a lynching list that I feel contains the remaining wolves. Conversations, posts, and thought have lead me to a pretty concrete list here. It goes Afro, Blah, Tasuke, Talisman, Tass, Kilga. I realize the game won't go that far, but the tail end are more of the "bench" that I feel are interchangable based on the upcoming posts and wolfings and such. I'm open for discussion on this, but it better be some damn good reasoning for me to change. Afro.

[talisman]

Replace me with hans and I'd like that list alot better...

Anyway, thoughts I've had today:

-tass has been pretty accusatory all game. I think he's jumped on afro, kilga, hans, me, fish, and jurs now. Not sure what to make of it. On the one hand it makes it hard to consider him a wolf because of the dearth of potential partners. On the other he's good enough to go after his partners for dissociation purposes (once with alain?). Yet the whole "the wolves might not know each other" factor is in play as well.

-in retrospect, it wouldn't make sense for kilga to post that convo where hans tries to send him the pm he [hans] sent to tps (although I'm still curious why hans did it) if the two were wolves together. I don't think it clears hans of anything... I don't like the way he's latched on to kilga, but from that convo at least, it doesn't seem like they're (knowingly) connected.

[Tasselfoot]

The thing with Alain was a special case, dictated by his stupidity during night 2 that game. Apart from that... yea. I guess I have been fairly accusatory all game. *shrugs*. Its worse than most games...

Most games I'm all... "****, I think everyone is a wolf" when I'm actually lying because I'm running an alliace and know that 1/2 the people aren't wolves. As opposed to this game, where I really COULD give reasons that everyone could be a wolf, while at the same time, could also give reasons why everyone is human.

As I have stated to a few people... I think Iggy and Wilkin, who no longer matter... but also to TPS. If Jurs OR Tasuke get a 2nd phantom (and are human) then we're seriously ****ed. It would mean that today's lynch MUST be a wolf. And, while I want to believe that I'm confident, I just have suspicions on too many people still to be that confident that whoever gets lynched will be a wolf.

SOOO... to ensure that neither get a phantom (which I am 100% confident at least 1 will), I am forced to vote Afro to aid in the Insta. Also, I have voiced my support of Talisman's reasoning behind Afro for 2 days now. His posts since then haven't had any substance and have more questioned the validity of attacking as opposed to the material of the attack OR attacking on his own.

Hopefully that is slightly more justified than my previous votes... although it is still a vote made more out of neccessity than out of choice. My top vote choice would have been Kilga, with Afro second.

And... now I go shower and catch a train back to Philly. I won't be around until after the day ends.

[Tasselfoot]

2 more votes == Insta... fyi.

[Tasselfoot]

****. Triple Post....

Lets not forget.... should Afro be human, it will likely be 4 humans vs 3 wolves tomorrow... which means that any human vote on another human is GAME OVER. So don't vote early!

[talisman]

Tps7910 (5:48:03 PM): Vote afro.
stressreliefball (5:48:15 PM): uh...
stressreliefball (5:48:18 PM): ok?
Tps7910 (5:48:26 PM): Insta is necessary.

afrothen. Not particularly sorry to see him go, thought my strongest suspicion is still hans and my nagging doubts about tass are growing.

[blahblah18]

afro by the way to keep jusr and tasuke from ****ing the entire game over... good job guys

[JurseyRider734]

Well I came back in time. I guess you already insta'ed though.

[Afrobean]

Oh.

I guess I'm dead.

I suppose there was nothing I could say anyway. Which is exactly what I was saying in my previous post. Can you guys at least make something up next time you decide to lynch me?