The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[flipsta_lombax]

This has driven the FFR community to insanity. Why didn't I listen to myself that in gambling, the house always wins in the end?

-.-; I love my 92 credits right now, haha...

[EAGAMES]

I lost 600k, down to 700.

[8 Hour Whore]

This is what happens when you gamble..
/fail

[rauchster]

Originally Posted by heyitsmee

there is no strategy.

You just haven't looked hard enough to see it.
Even if a game is pure luck on chances of winning, there is always a strategy behind it.
Technically poker is a game of pure luck, but yet everybody says there is strategy behind it, because they choose to look deep enough into it.

When someone bids 5,000 credits one after another after another, they're just gonna lose in the long run. Because eventually it will even out that they win 50% of the time. And since 1% goes to the house, for every 5000 they lose, they only gain back 4950.
Over time, they ruin themselves.

But if you play the numbers of probability, you can win easily over time.
Chances of winning (or losing) 1 time: 50% -> 1/2
Chances of winning (or losing) 2 times in a row: 25% -> 1/4
Chances of winning (or losing) 3 times in a row: 12.5% -> 1/8
Chances of winning (or losing) 4 times in a row: 6.25% -> 1/16
Chances of winning (or losing) 5 times in a row: 3.125% -> 1/32
Chances of winning (or losing) 6 times in a row: 1.5625% -> 1/64
Chances of winning (or losing) 7 times in a row: .78125% -> 1/128
Chances of winning (or losing) 8 times in a row: .390625% -> 1/256
(Did those in my head, may be inaccurate)

What this means is, although EVERY game is technically 50/50, if you look at the trends of the big picture, you realize that long winning and losing streaks are rare, because of the law of averages.

Even though it's technically a 50/50 chance to win or lose after 5 losses in a row, it's actually much more rare to lose 6 times in a row than it is to win 1 out of 6. And it's exceedingly rare to lose eight in a row.

And, to get one loss only takes one bet, and one in two bets will occur this way. So every two bets you should end up with a loss. (# of bets needed / % of occurence)
To get a two loss streak takes two bets, and only one in four will happen this way. So for every eight bets, you should have a single two loss streak.
Three loss streak: takes three bets, and only one in eight chance. So every 24 bets will include a three loss streak.
And so on and so forth.
I'll skip 4-5-6-7 and move on to 8 to show you the difference.
Eight loss streak: Needs 8 bets to make this happen, and 1 in 256 of these eight bet-sessions will end like this. Use that formula and it comes out to that this will happen only once in every 2048 bets.

So, when playing with the rule of averages, you can easily make a winning strategy off of this game.

Earlier I was:
Credits won: 3866
Credits Lost: 1090

Now I am:
Credits won: 5724
Credits Lost: 1910

I'm just not greedy, and win in the long run.
Just keep track of your streaks, and you'll have a pretty good idea of how to bet.

[bill_clinton]

This is gay, im down to my last 31 thousand. Someone please take the link down, or i'll lose my remaining credits

[tofurox]

lol no I made like 300k

[[HectoGtzMX]]

I'm talking about several times in a row. If there are 2 100k bets, you take the first and win, you shouldn't go for the second one.

Look for gambling tips, probability and statistics.

Anyway, there's always a possibility of winning/losing several times in a row. But I've been playing like this for 2 days and I've won 2 million credits, so... at least for me, yeah it works.

[heyitsmee]

you are at two million because you were one of the biggest credit holders before you started to bet

coin flips do not have memory

[rauchster]

Originally Posted by heyitsmee

coin flips do not have memory

Of course they don't.
But they DO have probability.
If you've lost 0, and won 50, is your next flip going to be a win. Who knows. It's 50/50.
But over a long period of time after those first 50 wins, are you going to lose enough to even back out to 50/50? Definitely.

That's why it's called 50/50.
Because over a long period of time, it DOES become 50/50.
So you know that when you are starting to tilt too far to one side, it will be EVENTUALLY turning around for you. Whether this will happen in 100 bets or 100,000, you don't know. But it will be 50/50 over a period of time.

Tonight, I'm going to load up my Spreadsheet program and build exactly what has been happening on my gambling, and learn even more about this.

Nothing is ever random. There is always a pattern. You just have to find it.
As of now
Credits Won: 27402
Credits Lost: 19190

[Beethovens mask]

Originally Posted by rauchster

Of course they don't.
But they DO have probability.
If you've lost 0, and won 50, is your next flip going to be a win. Who knows. It's 50/50.
But over a long period of time after those first 50 wins, are you going to lose enough to even back out to 50/50? Definitely.

That's why it's called 50/50.
Because over a long period of time, it DOES become 50/50.
So you know that when you are starting to tilt too far to one side, it will be EVENTUALLY turning around for you. Whether this will happen in 100 bets or 100,000, you don't know. But it will be 50/50 over a period of time.

Tonight, I'm going to load up my Spreadsheet program and build exactly what has been happening on my gambling, and learn even more about this.

Nothing is ever random. There is always a pattern. You just have to find it.
As of now
Credits Won: 27402
Credits Lost: 19190

Wow Heyitsme, you have to fight hard against this dude. He's smart.

[andili]

Yay, now that I sense a bit of pattern in this game....I earned 70k extra fweee. I agree with Izzy though, you have to be patient...or everything will just go down the drain.

[Commandersa1]

Originally Posted by rauchster

What this means is, although EVERY game is technically 50/50, if you look at the trends of the big picture, you realize that long winning and losing streaks are rare, because of the law of averages.

Even though it's technically a 50/50 chance to win or lose after 5 losses in a row, it's actually much more rare to lose 6 times in a row than it is to win 1 out of 6. And it's exceedingly rare to lose eight in a row.

No strategy... Dx

10 23 hours ago Lost
10 23 hours ago Lost
10 23 hours ago Lost
50 23 hours ago Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 yesterday Lost
10 2 days ago Lost

Also:

100 2 days ago Lost
100 2 days ago Lost
100 2 days ago Lost
100 2 days ago Lost
1000 2 days ago Lost
50 2 days ago Lost
10000 2 days ago Lost
10000 2 days ago Lost
10000 2 days ago Lost

[[HectoGtzMX]]

/\
|

I lol'd... anyway, I'll just keep on playing with my strategy-less way of playing. Bye!

[tofurox]

I just did a bunch of smaller ones. With a few random 100Grands.

[I like it]

I went from 50K to 100K to 1 I hate life.

[Beethovens mask]

Originally Posted by I like it

I went from 50K to 100K to 1 I hate life.

But life loves you.

[tofurox]

I went from 143K to 1 Million today!

[I like it]

Originally Posted by Beethovens mask

But life loves you.

I hope so

[tofurox]

I LOST 5 10,000 Credit bets in a ROW!
I diped under 1,000,000 xD!

[CAFK]

I was #1 for the Best Win ratio...now I'm down to #10. I'm trying to get back between #1 and #5 spots.