TWG XCVII: The Flame War (Real Version)

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by YoshL

lynch cardflips will flip as their exact role (except roleblocker)

(and except Fireman)

(right?)

[cedolad]

also if people move housing, will that information be available the following day?

[YoshL]

yes, and fireman(whoops)

moving housing won't be a problem because no-one will know where everyone is unless they're a police and they received a seer

[cedolad]

well I'm not seeing it as a problem, moreso it would be nice to see how many people were in a house in a given night. it really wouldn't matter since they're being moved into a different house anyway.

it would work like a vote count, just the number of people who were in the house that night.

really just curious because that would be useful for everyone, seeing the odds and what not.

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

gonna brainstorm and see if I can think of anything which would be both OK to post to thread and would be better odds-wise than everyone choosing randomly.

say we publicly announce three buildings and order all plain townies to choose randomly among those three. cops and fireman avoid those buildings.

pros:
fairly low chance of multi-kill (3 townies in one building is still only 1 death)
fireman guaranteed safety unless roleblocked
arsons have to choose between guaranteed kills vs. chance of hitting special roles
cops have better chance of finding fireman

cons:
higher chance of multi-kill than everyone choosing randomly
cops can't find reds
probably not viable once we're down to fewer houses

any thoughts? I feel like I'm almost onto something, but no chance of seeding reds would be a huge setback

[cedolad]

the cons outweight the pro's there dance.

[dAnceguy117]

barely, imo. if there were a better incentive for arsons to go for specials instead of townies, it would be kinda tight.



WARNING: THIS MIGHT BE AN AWFUL IDEA. I'M JUST THINKING OUT LOUD. DON'T DO THIS.
what if all 3 pro town specials claim? arsons can't kill based on name. we lynch only from the remaining pool. I haven't crunched the numbers, but at first thought the odds seem great to me.

[cedolad]

odds are 6 to 3 in favor of arsonists I think. Not a terrible idea, but we shouldn't get the 3 specials to claim unless we have to.

actually yeah that's a big balance issue. if all 3 specials come out, the arson's have no way of hitting us unless they know which house we'll be in.

I feel like for night one we should hide our numbers, then day 1 all the specials come out to coordinate more odds based on their night kill. 3 confirmed town of 8 (depending on arson's kill night 1), odds are 5 to 3 in hitting an arson day 1 with a lynch.

[cedolad]

night 1 housing idea:

pick 4 houses
each townie picks from there
guaranteed only 1 person dead from house fire (unless for some stupid reason everyone picks the same house, but odds are lower with 3 houses)

sorry dance had to re-iterate your idea, it sounded good actually with more rational thought.

[cedolad]

but odds are lower with 3 houses

4 houses I mean

[dAnceguy117]

one thing to note, related to my first idea: cops can't seer arsonists anyway. one cop would die. finding the roleblocker is, like... only marginally useful imo.

role reveal plan would be all or nothing. once it's done, it's done. can we think of a reason why the 3 specials revealing publicly could end horribly?

cedo I think we're the night owls itt

[cedolad]

here are more thoughts:

we want the arson's to hit a house where the townies are, will confirm 1 human, which is great for us day 1.

allocate 4 houses for towns, and 5 for the fireman to hide in. It would be a good idea to hide him in one of the 5 remaining so we can use him later in the game when there are less houses.

night 1:
4 houses for towns, 5 for fireman.

at most we'll lose 3 people in fire (that's if all 6 of the towns go to one house and the arson's hit it).

arson's will either kill someone, or just burn down a house.


day 1 if arson kills 1 town:
8 houses, 8 pro town, 5 actual townies. chance of lynching an arson is small but even with a bad lynch we'll have two confirmed humans.

day 1 if arson kills 2 town:
8 houses, 7 pro town, 4 actual townies. chance of lynching an arson is higher.

day 1 if arson kills 3 town:
8 houses, 6 pro town, 3 actual townies. this scenario just sounds dumb and I don't even want to finish this thought.

day 1 if arson doesn't kill:
8 houses, 9 pro town, 6 actual townies. chance of lynching is even smaller so a blind lynch will be more helpful.



tl;dr 4 houses, towns move into them randomly, hope arson hits one of them, fireman go hide in the other 5, odds of hitting you are low.

police don't do anything dumb. like go into one of the 4 houses...

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

one thing to note, related to my first idea: cops can't seer arsonists anyway. one cop would die. finding the roleblocker is, like... only marginally useful imo.

role reveal plan would be all or nothing. once it's done, it's done. can we think of a reason why the 3 specials revealing publicly could end horribly?

cedo I think we're the night owls itt

cops revealing wouldn't be a terrible idea. Since they can't seer arson's anyway, and finding the roleblocker IS only half as important.

but a role reveal would mean 3 confirmed humans night 1. That's a lot. I think the fireman should hide and lay low for as long as possible until there are at least 6 houses left. then he should come out.

[cedolad]

thought, lets just send all six towns to one house, that way 3 of them die (right?). Day 1 we'll have 6 pro town, with 6 confirmed humans if the specials came out. 50% chance of hitting an arson day 1.

[cedolad]

that way they'll still be 8 houses and 3 actual townies.

and come on people wake the fuck up we need to figure out a plan. I got work eventually tomorrow and all day the next day.

^5 me for being #1 active w00bbynigf*ckuwaaaattt

[Krauthammer]

cedolad, dAnceguy, I think there is one tiny, tiny, tiny flaw in your plans.

It doesn't do much to stop the Arsonists.

After all, one of the ways they have to win is to burn every building there is. There is almost no chance for them to win only using this way, but that doesn't mean they can't focus on setting fire to the houses that are empty, that way they staying safe...

...the only progress the townsfolk would have is that they seer one person Green. Which isn't bad, I guess.

It is true that with all these plans, the amount of deaths that happen will be lower, but is that very good? A bigger suspect list may be a disadvantage in the future. The Arsonists could hide better, even with the specials coming out.

[Viccica]

I think it's actually a solid plan. Even if they do have to burn down every building to attain their objective, that's four phases(5?) down the line. They can delay them getting lynched but with lynches happening outside of the special human pool, we'd narrow it down by then anyway. Arsonists eventually HAVE to target buildings people will be in.

[Viccica]

Meanwhile the pool gets narrowed down each phase by two, a green seering and a lynch. If the Arsonists do not target people they'd lose in what.. 4 phases? It's virtually the same either way.

[Tps222]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

barely, imo. if there were a better incentive for arsons to go for specials instead of townies, it would be kinda tight.



WARNING: THIS MIGHT BE AN AWFUL IDEA. I'M JUST THINKING OUT LOUD. DON'T DO THIS.
what if all 3 pro town specials claim? arsons can't kill based on name. we lynch only from the remaining pool. I haven't crunched the numbers, but at first thought the odds seem great to me.

That is the plan I proposed in the original game, which caused Yoshi to change the rules to no outside thread talking. I was one of the policemen, so I said to claim to fireman and have a secret alliance outside of the thread. We'd go to every building together, block every fire, get a seer result every time, and powerplay that to victory.

Yoshi then declared no talking outside of the thread. Only issue was that zoshi had already claimed fireman. Which means that the arsonist roleblocker could block him by name every night and render him useless. The game was restarted from there.

For some reason that thread was deleted.

It also means that you shouldn't publicly claim as fireman. You will get name role-blocked every round until the arsonist roleblocker is dead.

The best we can do is avoid providing any real information on the buildings we're going to occupy. Confusion and misdirection are key here.

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by cedolad

tl;dr 4 houses, towns move into them randomly, hope arson hits one of them, fireman go hide in the other 5, odds of hitting you are low.

dude. you fixed the idea (4 declared buildings instead of 3). thank you!

also: if the Arsonists burn a building with only the Fireman inside, the Fireman lives. so the Fireman would be safe in nearly all cases.

Originally Posted by cedolad

thought, lets just send all six towns to one house, that way 3 of them die (right?). Day 1 we'll have 6 pro town, with 6 confirmed humans if the specials came out. 50% chance of hitting an arson day 1.

I'm not a fan. with more townies alive, the odds of a successful lynch are lower; however, the town also gets fewer chances to lynch correctly that way. think of a regular game of TWG. which would be better for the town: if someone dies during a night phase, or if no one dies during a night phase?

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

cedolad, dAnceguy, I think there is one tiny, tiny, tiny flaw in your plans.

It doesn't do much to stop the Arsonists.

After all, one of the ways they have to win is to burn every building there is. There is almost no chance for them to win only using this way, but that doesn't mean they can't focus on setting fire to the houses that are empty, that way they staying safe...

we start with 9 buildings. a max of 1 building can be burned per night. when have you ever heard of a game of TWG reaching Night 9? the "burn all buildings" win condition should be ignored, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Krauthammer

It is true that with all these plans, the amount of deaths that happen will be lower, but is that very good? A bigger suspect list may be a disadvantage in the future. The Arsonists could hide better, even with the specials coming out.

more townies alive means more chances to lynch.

Originally Posted by Viccica

I think it's actually a solid plan. Even if they do have to burn down every building to attain their objective, that's four phases(5?) down the line.

YoshL clarified that the Arsonists can burn down 1 building in total per night, so that's 9 night phases.

Originally Posted by Tps222

That is the plan I proposed in the original game, which caused Yoshi to change the rules to no outside thread talking. I was one of the policemen, so I said to claim to fireman and have a secret alliance outside of the thread. We'd go to every building together, block every fire, get a seer result every time, and powerplay that to victory.

I'm not even considering the special abilities of the Police and the Fireman here. the goal would be to have 3 confirmed humans and to keep them alive. if they stay safe, then the town wins.

Originally Posted by Tps222

It also means that you shouldn't publicly claim as fireman. You will get name role-blocked every round until the arsonist roleblocker is dead.

the Fireman's ability isn't all that amazing. (not sure if the role was stronger before rules changes.) having all 3 special roles reveal in order to shrink the lynch pool would be worth them getting roleblocked, right? I think that should be the focal point of this debate.