TWG 195 - D6

[Bolth mannn]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Just a hunch tbh, I don't really have anything to go off of

You have the same info as everyone else here

Are you not able to be as active as usual or?

[Funnygurl555]

hey i was here shadow, i was trying >:U

y'all INSTA'D last phase tho c'mon now

[Bolth mannn]

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555

hey i was here shadow, i was trying >:U

y'all INSTA'D last phase tho c'mon now

barely an hour before EoD lol

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn

You have the same info as everyone else here

Are you not able to be as active as usual or?

Tbh I wasn't really planning on playing so I'm just going with the flow of everything. I could go back and see what's up? I haven't even read EOD D0 once yet

[Bolth mannn]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Tbh I wasn't really planning on playing so I'm just going with the flow of everything. I could go back and see what's up? I haven't even read EOD D0 once yet

I'd love you to.

If youre town I would love your perspective on how this games gone. It is possible what we need here is fresh eyes.

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

guess ill give nanook a pass for today even tho his play is disgusting

I'm so late to this party but if you thought his play was shit, why not vote him?

[Shadow_God_10]

I should mention I'm going through EOD for the first time since I joined.

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

this does not feel like a w/w interaction with nanook to me at all

Knowing what we know now... This is a big yikes

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Tbh I wasn't really planning on playing so I'm just going with the flow of everything. I could go back and see what's up? I haven't even read EOD D0 once yet

Why even sign up as a replacement if you weren't planning on playing?

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

I should mention I'm going through EOD for the first time since I joined.

This is yikes

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by choof

it got mathed the fuck out I think we're good here
what we should wait for is the possibility for a innocent child

Does this possibility still exist or no?

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Why even sign up as a replacement if you weren't planning on playing?

I didn't think I'd be needed seeing how the game was going before the site exploded. I just signed up so that you'd have at least one replacement in case it was needed

[Funnygurl555]

Originally Posted by Bolth mannn

barely an hour before EoD lol

eod was supposed to be a couple hrs ago

[Bolth mannn]

Oh shit actually? Turbo round length so much better

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

I'm so late to this party but if you thought his play was shit, why not vote him?

is this guy for real?

[FreezinIce]

also i freaking fell asleep again, and completely forgot my spicy take. So now i gotta skim the thread again and try to remember.

i really suck

[FreezinIce]

oh good, i remembered the spicy take

ill do wagonomics later if i feel like it, i just want to barf it out before i forget again lol.

====

So this might be a touch too far reading into the nightkill but I just found it weird that the last wolf would go for the PR grab rather than try to weaken town by killing off a consensus townread like xiz (wtf?), me, bolth or sunfan.

So making numbers up here but i think theres 2 possible directions this could go in and heres the % chance i think of each (keep in mind these are not mutually exclusive so rip sunfan if thats the case):

70% chance of the last wolf is in the deep towncore or close to it. If this is the case then the remaining PR is a much greater threat to them than being outted from the pool of suspicious people (obv because they arnt a part of it)

55% chance the wolf is a veteran TWG player. I dont think someone without a lot of experience tries to nail the PR here instead of killing the obvious townies or the PR literally right in front of them.

===

The percents are kind of low because again i was planning on cross checking the theory using wagonomics to see if anything popped out at me but didnt get around to it because im mentally weak like a wet noodle and practically have narcolepsy at this point


so yeah

[FreezinIce]

so who does my theory make look like shit?

lets check the list

I think the only ones who are consensus town or somewhat close to it are

====
sunfan
bolth
xiz (Here for completion sake but come on lol it aint him)
*shadow* (See second list)
choof (Has trended down massively it seems but was somewhat close to being widely townread as of the night of the kill so he gets to be here)

plop is kind of in the twilight zone between categories. He can tentatively join the top category

====

People I dont really think they were townread that much and probably didnt view themselves as such.

XelNya
Funnygurl555
WaywardVagabond
Shadow_God_10

Shadow might have thought he would be? (His eod was kinda weird) Maybe he should be in the top list. Since this was mostly about how the wolf perceived they would be viewed. fuck it ill add him up top

====

Alright so now we take the top list and we bisect it by people who are experience at twg and might make a play like this

sunfan
choof
plop

====

So WHAT DOES IT ALL MEEEEEAAAAN?

Take this list with a massive grain of salt, at this point it is mostly off the cuff speculation and is no substitute for proper reads (unless i happen to be right in which case im a genius bow down).

but even in the form its in now.... if we have a seer and they want to seer someone....

or xiz looking for someone to block....

you could do worse than looking here

[FreezinIce]

also i guess im just the person who makes lists and does wagonomics if i live long enough for either of them to matter.

and if i end up nailing the last wolf with the list then lol i become the person who makes lists that kills wolves

[FreezinIce]

wolf death note

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

is this guy for real?

I ask very stupid questions sometimes, don't mind me