TWG CLXVI: Fall Of An Empire Game Thread Day 4

[Tokzic]

The Slip #2

Tokzic: can't wait to gotcha you 2 wolves later with all these slips you're making
Soundwave: Are you serious? What slips do you think I'm going to make?
Tokzic: lmfao did you just interpret that as directed at you

[DaBackpack]

I stand by how the nakah wagon was weird as fuck, and your vote out of all of them was the one that makes the least sense considering the timing

additionally, you have been a quiet presence, esp. for someone who has been so generally active

I can't even tell you what I think your reads are because I don't know them, whereas I can do this with nearly other player in this game because they've been making waves and investigating publically and privately

you have been consistently in the background, watching but not acting

[Hakulyte]

I'm fine with Soundwave-. I spent the entire game trying to motivate him to take initiative about investigating information and he's been minimalistic overall which makes little sense because I already explained that the idea of this game was to share a maximum of information. Yes, he did act of presence overall, but I never could truly clear him.

Something has to be done about this LightKnight/Soundwave pair as well and it's better sooner than later.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I stand by how the nakah wagon was weird as fuck, and your vote out of all of them was the one that makes the least sense considering the timing

to elaborate on this point:

I reread the interactions while the nakah wagon was forming, and freezin's progression makes sense in the context:

at first he was nullish when I came in with my reasoning against nakah, and then nakah refused to cooprate, freezin became more aggressive and suspicious

that thread of conversation feels like a co-evolution of reads, instead of him being opportunistic --- i.e. he and I both developed at the same time

eva's, on the other hand, is a vote which exists way outside of the conversation

but what is different here is that she did not seem to vote to capitalize on an existing wagon, since the momentum of the wagon had stopped by that point

that's not to say she's not suspicious for voting at a totally random time, but the specific bandwagoning opportunism that I am searching for is not present here

soundwave's, on the third hand, was "in the middle of things", which was really opportunistic since it seemed like he wanted to be in the middle of a developing wagon

which isn't always damning, but consider that he had thus far been totally silent in the discord as the convo was heating up, and then he placed a vote in thread before even mentioning anything about it in the discord

he made the excuse that "he was busy" or something and thus he wanted to plant his vote there, but wouldn't it have been more meaningful/easier to apply pressure to the conversation?

this reads to me as reaping the benefits of placing a vote, followed by an immediate disengagement from the scuffle between nakah and I ---- "having your cake and eating it too"

[mellonxcollie]

flashflash

[danceflashrevo]

I dropped vote and left because I got busy.

rbx

I won't be here for eod

[FreezinIce]

nakah

Also won't be here for eod

[Soundwave-]

[8:09 PM] Tokzic: who was susing soundwave earlier
[8:09 PM] Tokzic: because it feels like there's been an interesting shift in public perception on him
[8:09 PM] Tokzic: secretly recording everything here <- This is something I said, along the lines of "Nobody's gone and recorded voice chats unless somebodies doing it secretly"
[8:09 PM] Tokzic: can't wait to gotcha you 2 wolves later with all these slips you're making
[8:10 PM] Tokzic: LMFAO
[8:10 PM] Tokzic: did you just
[8:10 PM] Tokzic: interpret that
[8:10 PM] Tokzic: as directed at you

I dunno, seems like it was directed PRETTY DIRECTLY at me. You're talking about me, and then quote me, and then lowkey accuse me like that's not really a slip fam.

[Tps222]

Current Vote Count, 15 minutes to go:


(3)soundwave-tokzic,dbp,haku
(2)flash-soundwave,mellon
(1)roundbox-dancflash
(1)eva-flashflash
(1)danceflashrevo-lightknight924
(1)Nakah-freezin

[Lightknight924]

melloncollie

She has been going hard humanity style this whole game and when I re-read every single post she made in this thread, it's of a light tone where she climbs along with the ride of the humans, and I can't shake this feeling that Raeko is a wolf haha. So that's my vote for the day.

[Lightknight924]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

so you're only answering questions that you, personally, find important? not a good way to play this game my friend because we are all searching for our own answers.

Why don't you want to idle in the discord? why do you keep leaving?

I dont get this attack? Seems like a blatant push to throw suspicion on soundwave

[roundbox]

nakah

[Soundwave-]

I have to Lightknight924.

[mellonxcollie]

nakah

[Lightknight924]

Flashflash remember what I told you! Raeko and haku and roundbox are my final guess.

[Tps222]

DAY 2 HAS ENDED: Vote Count

(4)Lightknight-freezin,roundbox,soundwave,mellonxcollie
(3)soundwave-tokzic,dbp,haku
(1)roundbox-dancflash
(1)eva-flashflash
(1)mellonxcollie-lightknight924

Lightknight924 has been lynched. It is now Night 2. Please get in whatever actions you must to me over PM.

[Lightknight924]

Harrk awayyy HARRK AWAYYYYY


O'ERRRR THE BONNIE HILLS O' KIELDER!


Hark Awayyyyy.

#deathpost

[flashflash account]

The Thinking Mind of Me

Part I: The Given Choof

When I was reading through the discord my overall read of Choof is that the lynch happened because people were metagaming him hard. I think it's pretty clear at this point he was a mislynch, so he's a given at this point. DanikaBanana is a given non-wolf since she was night killed, but I'm not entirely certain she was town. I'll go over that later. Flashflash Account as a human is a given (since I don't need to prove my humanity to my own thoughts). That being said, I'll try to include myself where applicable to ease potential suspicion. Nakah just got lynched, and while I *suspect* he's a mislynch, he's not a given in the same way I think Choof was.

So here's the reads we need to look at:

1. Soundwave-
2. TyrantNeptune
3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
8. Hakulyte
10. evanescence
11. roundbox
12. danceflashrevo

11C3 comes out to 165, so in a random situation with no leans or reads there are 165 potential wolf pairings (when we subtract the givens).

Part II: The Danika Effect

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

why wasn't haku killed wtf?

also lol that soundwave slip but unfortunately i think you could read that in a different way, but consdering he was under some heat last phase i dont think the world i'm seeing is the right one.

The question everyone asked. "Why wasn't haku killed?" And it's a question worth asking. Typically (ignoring meta) someone that towny has to be killed before they get info on everyone and it spirals out of control. So WHY Danika? The two biggest reasons for Not Haku are:

1) Wolves are playing the meta
2) Someone was a bigger threat than Haku

THE ONLY WAY THESE MAKE SENSE: Is if Danika was read as potentially blue.

[12:24 PM] Hakulyte: I think im relatively likely to get nk'd
[12:24 PM] Hakulyte: if the wolf team is new players
[12:24 PM] Michael: Tbh if you don't...
[12:24 PM] Hakulyte: but not if it's veterans here
[12:24 PM] Hakulyte: because they know I have a terrible history
[12:25 PM] Michael: Thinking about it
[12:25 PM] Michael: Roundbox could be special
[12:25 PM] Hakulyte: im expecting to be left alive until im about to somehow potentially hit a wolf
[12:25 PM] Hakulyte: but since i play weirdly, there's always a risk for them
[12:25 PM] Michael: I think that fits what I've seen from him
[12:27 PM] Hakulyte: im hoping you stay alive and kinda solve tyrant/nakah
[12:27 PM] Hakulyte: because I usually rely on meta
[12:27 PM] Hakulyte: and I don't know what im doing with them
[12:27 PM] Hakulyte: im just reacting to what I find weird
[12:27 PM] Michael: Davy will clear himself
[12:27 PM] Michael: If he's human

Danika.txt--->CLICK HERE

DanikaBanana - Last Wednesday at 9:24 PM
yeah DFR is a friend irl and he pegged you town so thus this
I have a few hunches on wolves, but I'm still new and don't want to say
anything since it's been awhile since I've done a game such as this
I feel like a lot of people are acting out though


DanikaBanana - Last Wednesday at 9:30 PM
that is true
I can feign ignorance to a lot of things


DanikaBanana - Last Wednesday at 9:49 PM
yeah, that is why i've been a bit quite...don't want to say something that
would lead people to believe something that's not. Trying to read more of this
game and input when I think I have something and otherwise just learn what
everyone else seems to be doing. Hard to do on this game though


Hakulyte - Last Wednesday at 9:54 PM
since I'm relatively useless, the wolves never kill me
so, I tend to survive very far in games now


DanikaBanana - Last Wednesday at 10:00 PM
born in canada too actually xD I like to think I can argue well, but sometimes
I trip over my own words and that can make me hard to follow
I am used to writing convincing papers and such and was once on debate team so
I know how to convine people just a matter of formulating the words to do so


DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 10:10 AM
yeah that's the thing I don't have anything super definite
I am positive dfr is human that is it


DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 10:13 AM
haha if you are sure I am town then trust me that he is human

What am I reading from this? DFR WILL NOT NIGHT KILL DANIKA. Basically at this point Danika night kill not only clears DFR but it also clears Haku, instead of throwing suspicion on him (as I previously might have thought). Not that Haku needed it, of course. So thus we move on with 2 more players confirmed human.

1. Soundwave-
2. TyrantNeptune
3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

9C3 is 84. We've already knocked off nearly half of all possible combinations by eliminating two players from wolfhood. However, in order for our original argument 1 (Wolves are playing the meta) to be true, the Danika lynch has to make sense from a meta perspective. Thus we go to her reads:

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

DanikaBanana - Yesterday at 1:41 PM
okay great thanks
This is what I feel as of right now
Town-Hakulyte, danceflashrevo, danikabanana, mellonxcollie, Tokzic, dabackpack, FlashFlashAccount
Unsure-FreezinIce, roundbox
Weird vibes- evanescence_death4ever
Wolf vibes- soundwave, choof, TyrantNeptune, LightKnight924
sorry wrong person, but that's okay you can see that too

Knowing what we know now, none of these reads seem particularly dangerous from any of our possible wolf teams. She has both Tokzic and mellonxcollie as human, and her wolf vibes are quite frankly pulling from different hypotheticals. So with one exception, we can safely eliminate the "Wolves are playing the meta" argument. We move on to argument 2 (Someone was more dangerous than Haku). The ONLY thing a wolf not playing meta would lynch over Haku is a Special Role (or a private vendetta tbh but we already cleared DFR).

DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
okay got it
Hakulyte - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
no one knows if it was a wolf or not
DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
unless the seer or physic speak up, they get to know stuff like that right?
Hakulyte - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
normally there's a strategy around flips and if X person rolled Y role
yeah
but even then
DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
bye bye them if they do say something
Hakulyte - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
you need to confirm it's not someone lying
DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
ture
Hakulyte - Last Thursday at 4:57 PM
and you can't tell
because no cardflips
a blue power role could die
while everyone thinks it's a wolf
DanikaBanana - Last Thursday at 4:58 PM
and then the wolf says yes it was a wolf

I can see how someone reading this for example would consider Danika is a special. Reading all of Danika's stuff, I really don't see her being as special as I initially thought. In some cases, it works though. So what do we learn from the Danika night kill?
Part III: The Exception to the Danika Effect


Allow me to introduce you to Human Davy:

Originally Posted by TyrantNeptune

Just so everyone is on the same page, if the seer gets a blue result, that person is the psychic so the seer should privately claim to him. If the seer gets a red result he should post that in the topic (or let the psychic post that in the topic if they are in touch with eachother) because there are no millers in this game.

Originally Posted by TyrantNeptune

In my opinion it's better to trade a red for a blue than risk losing the blue on a random wolfing before getting the information from the blue.



I disagree. It is better that humans agree what the Power Roles (I assume that is what PR means) do than that they do something that works in the disadvantage of the humans.

Aside from that PR discussion also shows what people think about what PR's should do which we can use to base our suspicions on (as you are doing now).



I'm not sure. LightKnight, do you play on NSM and if so, what is your account name there?

Originally Posted by TyrantNeptune

When did I said I think that? Are you confusing me with FlashFlashAccount?



I didn't want to assume LightKnight was Nakah. I wasn't sure wether he was Nakah, BlackDragonSlayer of someone else entirely.

That being said, I don't have much experience playing TWG with Nakah. There were only a couple of games that we both played and in those games Nakah was inactive.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Allow me to introduce you to Wolf Davy:

Originally Posted by TyrantNeptune

Inactive as in he didn't make a single post. He was a wolf in both of those games.

I'm going to vote for soundwave-. I see no reason for him to make his "quit drawing attention to your humanity" post if he is town.


Also Hakulyte contacted my on discord and we discussed how he had made an alliance and how they had a lynch order. I thought I should share this with the topic in case someone didn't know and I would like to see the lynch order posted.

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

>From the bowels of discord<

TyrantNeptune - Yesterday at 5:39 AM
I'm having some trouble keeping up with the discord. It's going too fast for me.
As for my opinions on this game, I'm a little surprised that people are unwilling to guide the PR's.
And I agree that LightKnight is the most suspicious player atm.


===

got em

you have such a short memory it seems

Originally Posted by TyrantNeptune

At that moment, I thought LightKnight was the most suspicious player.

Before placing my vote I went over the topic again and decided that I find soundwave more suspicious.

Where am I on davy? I honestly only know slightly more than you. If he doesn't come back I'm confident with him being a wolf, but if he comes back I'm more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. IF ANYONE WOLFED DANIKA FOR META REASONS, IT WOULD BE DAVY. Actual probability of that happening is low. Davy would still night kill Danika, however, if he was reasonable sure that she was a special.

ASSUMING DAVY DOES NOT COME BACK: Almost certainly a wolf. If we mislynch him for inactivity it's all on him anyway.
IF DAVY DOES COME BACK: He needs very specific reads and attacks to stay in this. There are a lot of easy reads for him to make that won't clear him, and I'm sure he'd bus someone if he thought it would clear him. He IS a pretty good player.

1. Soundwave-
2. TyrantNeptune
3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

Part IV: Davy is a Wolf

If Davy is a wolf, these are his compatible partners.
Lightknight, Tokzic, Evanescence, Roundbox

Raeko's, dbp's, and Freezn's complete disregard for davy's skill seems genuine to me and I don't think any of them would react in the same way that they have. Soundwave was an early target of davy's and he's not the kind of player to intentionally call out a partner when nothing is riding on it. There has to be a visible advantage for him to take the risk and at that point I don't think soundwave was scummy enough for davy to try bussing him.

2. TyrantNeptune
4. Lightknight
6. tokzic
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

At this point I can't just google the combination answer, but I believe 5C3 is 10. Correct me if I'm wrong. With davy as a lock for wolf it becomes 4C2 which is 6. So there are 6 potential wolf combos when we count davy:
Davy, Nakah, Tokzic
This works. Tokzic has Nakah as town after Nakah is lynched and also is not as suspect of TyrantNeptune as the others.
Davy, Nakah, eva
This is weak since eva sheep voted nakah, which probably wouldn't happen with wolf eva.
Davy, Nakah, roundbox
roundbox initially read nakah as town even though at that point nakah was being super wolfy. Looking at discord I'm not seeing anything different. This pairing is also possible.
Davy, Tokzic, eva
Nope. Tokzic and eva are incompatible
Davy, eva, roundbox
This pairing is less likely than the others.
Davy, Tokzic, roundbox
Roundbox reading both his partners as slight scum? I don't know what to make of that since I don't know roundbox meta. Outside insight is appreciated here.

ROUNDBOX.txt---->CLICK HERE

1:34 PM] roundbox: MY TOWN: Haku, freezin, nakah (in descending confidence)
Nakah's reaction and overall frustration look more like a town giving up than
a wolf to me.

[11:40 PM] roundbox: I disagree voting for nakah atm
[11:40 PM] FreezinIce: failure
[11:40 PM] DaBackpack: why's that
[11:40 PM] roundbox: nakah instead of asking
[11:40 PM] roundbox: "who do we feel is off"
[11:41 PM] RIP: @Nakah What kind of question is that rofl of course were
going to say you"
[11:41 PM] roundbox: I challenge you to assert a case against someone who is
seeing off
[11:41 PM] roundbox: seeming off, rather
[11:41 PM] Nakah: ty
[11:41 PM] roundbox: who is being a poopaduke

From this I think we determine: IF DAVY IS A WOLF, ROUNDBOX AND NAKAH ARE WOLVES.

Part V: Davy is Not a Wolf

Davy not being a wolf is slightly less likely.

1. Soundwave-
2. TyrantNeptune
3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

If Davy is not a wolf, I'm confident that his initial reads on Soundwave are correct. So if soundwave is the wolf...

1. Soundwave-
2. TyrantNeptune
3. FreeznIce
4. Lightknight
5. mellonxcollie
6. tokzic
7. Dabackpack
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

His partners need to night kill Danika at the very least.
Possible partners: Freezin, mellonxcollie, dabackpack, evanescence, roundbox

As you can see he has a lot of potential partners. Tokzic has been so anti-soundwave from the beginning that them being partners bussing each other is ridiculous. Nakah and Soundwave being partners is also just dumb since I and many others have decided one is town and the other is scum at this point.

1. Soundwave-
3. FreeznIce
5. mellonxcollie
7. Dabackpack
10. evanescence
11. roundbox

6C3 gives us 20 possible combinations. THIS IS EVANESCENCE'S FAULT. If I heard more from her I could see how much her scum reads have changed since her initial post (which she somehow had time to color code but didn't have time to catch up or give unique thought). For the sake of narrowing it down, we'll go back to evanescence later and assume that she and soundwave are incompatible, which brings us to another 5C3=10, 4C2=6.
Soundwave, FreezinIce, Mellonxcollie
This one doesn't have a lot of merit (mostly because I believe Freezin is human, but also because the three of them aren't as compatible as any two of them together) and is loosely based on SW and Freezin's voting patterns as well as voting Nakah>Soundwave when most town agreed soundwave was the more wolfish target.
Soundwave, FreezinIce, Dabackpack
-Will pick up here in section 2-
Soundwave, FreezinIce, roundbox
-section 2-
Soundwave, mellonxcollie, Dabackpack
This is loosely based on the voice chat where all three of them were mostly defending eva against me and nakah. Not much merit to this pairing especially after phase ended but it exists.
Soundwave, mellonxcollie, roundbox
VOTE 4 NAKAH 2K17 (will elaborate section 2)
Soundwave, Dabackpack, roundbox
Soundwave and DBP without raeko is really unlikely because of dbp voting for soundwave while roundbox votes for nakah.

SORRY I HAVE TO CUT THIS SHORT BUT MY THOUGHTS ARE NOT DONE YET
MAYBE I SHOULD JUST QUIT MY JOB AND PLAY TWG INSTEAD

[mellonxcollie]

meh

[Soundwave-]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

meh

You are my spirit animal.

I'll read all this shit I have backed up eventually.