TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Celirra

I do want to hear a bit more in regards to this; I think it's consistent enough? I admittedly don't remember finding much regarding him specifically incriminating me at any point, but if he did in the past then it is consistent in his thinking that he would roleblock DBP and myself.

I have my own thoughts on this but it'll be better for Town to let Manti answer that himself. I feel like I know the answer though.

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

ALSO while a second kill in the night is possible, the fact that you still refer to it as an SK kinda shows me you're not all that caught up with everything. SK is very unlikely, and what we've seen points to a 3rd party guesser.

I'm not very well versed in random games and I default to third party as SK; apologies there. I think much of my logic still follows though, with maybe a bit less security in the no-lynch option.

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by Celirra

I'm curious who else he roleblocked in the past night phases still.

I'd also like to know who his roleblocks were for previous nights

[MixMasterLar]

Like, I get your point. The issues I have are

1 - That you are advocating this basically as your first point before you even work through anything else

And

2 - We gotta solve this shit sometime and now is about as safe of time as any as far as where I'm sit.

I guess watching who the wolves target vs If Til/Manti get another save gives us info but we'll have that amount of info anyway?

At this point I do not know if you think DPB is town and just don't want to fight him, or if you're actually both wolves and want to save yourselves. The way you go about things baffles me

[Wayward Vagabond]

and i'm still wonder where tokzic is because there is no way his internet is that good now that he can't drop playing a game to just pop in here and say anything related to this game

[Wayward Vagabond]

dbp do you think tokzic isn't a wolf

[Wayward Vagabond]

xiz why did you switch from tokzic to blind last minute at eod?

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Like, I get your point. The issues I have are

1 - That you are advocating this basically as your first point before you even work through anything else

And

2 - We gotta solve this shit sometime and now is about as safe of time as any as far as where I'm sit.

I guess watching who the wolves target vs If Til/Manti get another save gives us info but we'll have that amount of info anyway?

At this point I do not know if you think DPB is town and just don't want to fight him, or if you're actually both wolves and want to save yourselves. The way you go about things baffles me

I see where you're coming from with this; it was to see who the wolves would target for more info, as a free pass. this assuming the role guesser (or other 3p) doesn't kill, because again if that happens then we're in a bit of trouble either way.

The thing is... I'm still not really sold on DBP as wolf, which is why I'm so apprehensive.

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

xiz why did you switch from tokzic to blind last minute at eod?

You should read my posts and look at my voting history for the day. You should be able to answer that for yourself.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

and i'm still wonder where tokzic is because there is no way his internet is that good now that he can't drop playing a game to just pop in here and say anything related to this game

Get use to it every game you ever play with him

[Celirra]

hey is role guesser guessing something an action?

if so then we're up to 4 of the 5 night actions

sorry that's a bit of a tangent, just wanted to get the thought out there.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Celirra

The thing is... I'm still not really sold on DBP as wolf, which is why I'm so apprehensive.

Then what you need to do is show why he is town, then make a case on why you are town. After that it's a matter of seeing if we believe Manti or not and if not we lynch him.

You don't have to go far to convince me DBP looks more town then not TBH, but that's a case you still need to make if you wanna no lynch because saying "Here's some numbers let's no lynch" ain't gonna cut it, bub. Just sounds like some wolf who doesn't know what argument to make

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Celirra

hey is role guesser guessing something an action?

if so then we're up to 4 of the 5 night actions

sorry that's a bit of a tangent, just wanted to get the thought out there.

I'd imagine it'll have to

[DaBackpack]

yeah we really need to know what manti's previous night actions were

[DaBackpack]

I have no particular reason to doubt Manti outside of its convenience

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by Xiz

You should read my posts and look at my voting history for the day. You should be able to answer that for yourself.

but i want you to answer

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Celirra

In regards to me lurking and being largely inactive, I've been racking my brain around whether or not Manti can be trusted, because that is my priority here above all else; I'd much rather not have another mislynch because at this point, at best we can only have two more mislynches before we lose; at worst, if there is 3P, then it could be as grave as having only one more mislynch before we lose, under this:

10 right now
mislynch -1 = 9
NK:
wolf -1
SK -1
7 by start of next day
3 wolves 1 sk
very difficult for town to win unless we roleblock well

That's more just why I'm really trying to figure this out hard right now and I'm a bit worried of haphazardly posting, because if Manti is to be trusted with this vote, then there is mathematically a 50% chance that we're in a bad spot to win, assuming there's equal odds of me or DBP being lynched.

I have a suggestion for what it's worth:
no lynch (is this how this works? basically no lynch tonight)
if there is no 3p, then we don't actually have to lynch; thus is the beauty of even numbers.

10 now
no lynch
nk -1
9 for next day phase
1 mislynch permissible assuming no PR intervention (2 mislynches = 3w 2t)

else:
10 now
lynch -1
nk -1
8 for next day phase
1 mislynch permissible assuming no PR intervention (2 mislynches = 3w 1t; with 1 mislynch it would be 3w 3t, or 2w 2t, or so on, which I believe means town still has a chance? if #t = #w means a loss for town, then I actually think it might be more beneficial to hold off tonight at no harm? unless we have no doubt)

please correct me if any of this could be incorrect; I do know that even #'s permit a no-lynch anyways I believe, even if my reasoning is incorrect, in which case oops, and please clarify if I am wrong

This way we get more info from a NK potentially before we make a risky vote between two, myself and DBP, because I don't think any of us are confident of either of us being town OR wolf.

Also for what it's worth, don't hammer anyone tonight; I think insta'ing anyone right now is a bad call, so please be careful with actually dropping the hard votes.

if cel is a wolf let this be known as a slip that there's info the wolves can't even account for

(noting the SK assumption)

[Wayward Vagabond]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Get use to it every game you ever play with him

WELP

[DaBackpack]

there are two things weighing on my mind right now

1) I don't think Manti is lying about his role, but it's possible that -some other action in the night- caused the nightkill to fail --- doctor save, etc
2) He could be lying about his alignment --- i.e. he's really a roleblocker as he said but he is on the wolf team (or third party).

I can't resolve the first point, I don't even know if I was actually roleblocked because I didn't do anything (I'm vanilla)

The second point I can try to discern, if Manti had reason "as town" to roleblock Celirra and I

obviously my EoD was trash so it's natural that I'd be a target, but what remains is for me to see what Manti thought of Celirra over someone else

[the sun fan]

Charu has replaced Tokzic effective immediately