TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

[talisman]

well yes, such a situation could occur... but only if the mw were incredibly sidetracked and wasn't checking in with the other wolves and asking them about who they were thinking about voting and whatnot. but whatever... this is kind of pointless to debate.

and as for your angel question, I don't think he/she can choose not to kill, pretty sure that comes with the job.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by talisman

So another thing to consider: nforcer. (And this is one time it might be somewhat worthwhile to discuss the night one kill).

Unless I'm mistaken, the angel is a pretty weak blue, as guarding doesn't guarantee an extra day at all, but just displaces the kill. And early on, as odds would have it, such a displaced kill is fairly unlikely to strike a wolf.

So then, even if nforcer was very active last game, why him and not me, fish, tass, hans, kilga, guido, blah, etc? even if one of that pool were guarded and attacked (low probability as it is), the kill is still probably going to be a human, so might as well attack one of that pool anyway.

Yet this didn't occur. so, possibilities:

a) a majority of the wolves are among this pool
b) the wolves didn't think this through enough to realize the above
c) one or more of the wolves is one of the players that the angel would likely select to kill (probably newer players, at this point) and they didn't want to chance it.

thoughts?

This abc list pretty much could include anyone. But I did think, "Hey why didn't they just go for the top dog instead of nforcer?"

I want to say it's A just because the number of players that wouldn't realize it would be few so that would make B less likely. (minineo for one because he asks what the angel does for an example.)

Course C is good too. You have to weigh whether or not the wolves would be willing to make the sacrifice or not though.

Can I phone a friend on this one? XD

I'm going with A though as most likely, even though you could argue every one of those...... final answer.

[GuidoHunter]

talisman, I don't think the Angel will be picking targets for the first few nights. The probability of hurting us is too great. So, we can gain a day, and when there's suspicion on others start smiting.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Tasselfoot]

Guido... as was already stated... the angel doesn't have a choice. they HAVE to kill someone in place of the wolf kill (right?).

But... I was discussing this with TPS... the angel is more powerful than you n00bs are giving credit for.

Scenario: Some hawt sexy angel thinks that I'm a good wolf choice and halo's my ass. Now... when the wolves go to kill me, they are choosing from a pool of 13 humans/blues. 0% of getting a wolf during the night. BUT... angel's kill... now, not only do the wolves not get their choice of kill, but the angel has a shot (y/[x-3]%, where x is the number of players left in the game, and y is the number of wolves) of killing a wolf. So, yea... we won't gain a day. But we won't LOSE a day either (such as with a normal bookie/vigi kill). So, I'm all for someone getting guarded.

PS - the x-3 is for tps, the angel, and the person guarded. safe to assume none of that group would be targeted. could also be x-2 if tps IS the guarded.

Make sense my unaware n00blets?

[talisman]

I was under the assumption that they had to pick...

from host thread:

angel - A lot like the guardian mixed with a bookie. Every night the angel chooses who he/she wants to protect (same as guard) and who he/she wants to smite. On a successful protection, the person he/she chose to smite will be killed in place of the person he/she protected.

from this thread:

The angel sends his pm with whom he wants to gaurd, and to possibly kill at the same time. If it is successful, you will know there was a successful gaurding, but not who it was.

I think the "possibly" in the second refers not to if they send it in or not but if the person they picked to be guarded is attacked or not, but I could be wrong.

[talisman]

and tass ninja'd his way in there before I hit submit. (above was in response to guido).

[GuidoHunter]

Originally Posted by talisman

from this thread:

The angel sends his pm with whom he wants to gaurd, and to possibly kill at the same time. If it is successful, you will know there was a successful gaurding, but not who it was.

I think the "possibly" in the second refers not to if they send it in or not but if the person they picked to be guarded is attacked or not, but I could be wrong.

This is what I was going on. I interpreted the "possibly" to mean the smiting was optional. Honestly, I think it should be an option, as I wouldn't want to be taking shots in the dark at wolves when it could potentially cause great harm. The smiting should be an ability to be used, not required.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Tasselfoot]

I like that it is required.

Best case: Get a wolf
Worst case: Another confirmed human (or TPS again) and the loss of a not-so-helpful human. Because we all know it'll be Vash, Tasuke, or Mini who gets angel'd, should it come to that. That is, unless the angel/TPS have a strong feeling towards one specific person. In which case, the angelic wrath will be on them. And in the end, it really doesn't matter. What matters is that we're choosing the kill, not the wolves. We don't lose a day, we don't lose someone the wolves want dead...

see my point? no? then you fail.

angel ftw!

[mead1]

I don't know why I worded that the way I did, the angel does have to kill on a successful gaurd.

[JurseyRider734]

Hi sorry for not posting. The show opens today and i've had rehearsal every day for the past week and a half, and dress rehearsal Sunday/Monday/Tuesday where I stayed at the school until 10:45 or later.

ps i wouldn't bother with pointing fingers at mini right now because he's just really stupid and probably is just trying to fit in lol

Anyway, expect less posts from me until Sunday (if i'm not dead by then :\), which is the day i can start posting more. This drama club production is massive (Beauty and the Beast for those of you who don't know), so it'll be keeping me busy day and night.

[vashthestampede0987]

Yeah guys, my bad. I wish you all would get online when I'm not in school. -_-

So what I've gathered from this is:
-Tps is angel
-Mini is really hyped up
-Tass has random ****ed up messages sent
-I have to go to school in 20 seconds

I'll post more at around 2:30

[Tasselfoot]

vash... the angel coming out would be f-ing stupid.

tps came out as the interrogator.

*sigh*

[FishFishRevolution]

rofl vash definitely has the mental capacity for this game.

There's something that just caught my attention here. Guido invented the bookie roll, and saw it work very well in the game he hosted. Now he's being really "whoa whoa guys we don't just want to kill people, do we?" Well, isn't that what we do during the day? An angel kill just means the choice will have absolutely no wolf influence. Even AFTER Tass mathmatically explained why the angel killing every successful guard is a good idea, he's more hesitant than I'd expect.

[iggymatrixcounter]

I like how vash just says what everyone else already said. And also hasn't given any thoughts of his own.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Also in a completely different direction about tass's formula.

That may be true but the chances of a wolf geting smitten night 1 would be almost complete luck so why not go for a big player?

Unless the MW is a noob, and that would be assuming MW would know that the angel would pick someone like them for a smite. Even then it's a low chance because 1) angel has to guard top tier player X and 2) angel must select n00by X. And X would have to = MW.

See I can do formulas too.

[Tasselfoot]

is the MW is a n00b, then they never even considered my logic. I would imagine MOST people in the game did not consider my logic, which is why you all were bitching about the angel killing anyone.

Once I explained it, you all were like, "oh wow... Tass is right. AGAIN. He really is my God."

[Wilkin]

Aside from the Angel theories...

We don't have a lot of solid evidence against anyone for the Night 1 kill, except for the fact that nForcer hasn't been a very big wolf target until the end of the game (last night in 28, last night in 26). The only other time he was wolfed was Night 1 in 11 (according to the history).

That said, we should be looking for someone who would put a rift in this trend. Since he doesn't have a very extensive history of getting wolfed, the kill could be exactly for that reason, since there's not much of a pattern to go from. Like several others stated, I believe that the most likely candidate is a "higher" player, who is more likely to think about this kind of thing.

Aside from the fact that I'm not a huge fan of Vash, I think his post is pretty much him being a smartass by saying that Tps is the Angel, seeing as how roles were faked in the last two games. Suspicion-wise, I don't see much of anything.

[GuidoHunter]

Originally Posted by FishFishRevolution

Guido invented the bookie roll, and saw it work very well in the game he hosted. Now he's being really "whoa whoa guys we don't just want to kill people, do we?" Well, isn't that what we do during the day? An angel kill just means the choice will have absolutely no wolf influence. Even AFTER Tass mathmatically explained why the angel killing every successful guard is a good idea, he's more hesitant than I'd expect.

Eh? I took the role off of that site...

But I do see your point and Tass's, now that it's been explained. And, since mead clarified the role, anything else I would have to say on the matter is moot; I just liked the idea of gaining a day without one smite, and then smiting away after that.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[FishFishRevolution]

D= There's a site? I thought you made it up...

;_;

PS Jurs are you sure you're going to be able to handle this game? When I talked to you the other day it sounded like you were going through hell IRL, with being super busy until 11ish every night for the rest of this week. Maybe it's a wolfy cover like psycho used...

[Tasselfoot]

Or maybe its Fish trying hard to push for weak targets? The pot-shot at Vash, the comment towards Guido, and now the one on Jurs. Seems awful accusatory (is that a word?) of you.

PS - Check the rules thread... has a link to the princeton site, which is the "site" that you didn't think existed.