TWG IX - Manhunt - End of Day 2 - Game Over

[Tps222]

Well, Charolette is a good idea, since Tass hinted at liking her(is it a her, or he) last game, so its a good choice, but i will have to see more on that. I have a little suspicion of Blah, though. He was in contact with EB all last game, and EB probably picked his style, so he got rid of him. Then i was talking to blah, and he said that he had a pregame convo with chardish, maybe chardish had somehow figured something out about blah, so blah had to dispose of him.

mastr414: i see you
mastr414: i know your'e browsing
mastr414: write a post
mastr414: a good once
Tps7910: actually
Tps7910: im there
mastr414: a good one
Tps7910: but im really nto
Tps7910: not
mastr414: ?
Tps7910: im typing a huge report paper thats dues tommarow
Tps7910: its worth half my grade
Tps7910: its on the Rise and Fall of the Roman empire
Tps7910: soill try to make some good posts
Tps7910: asap
mastr414: ok
mastr414: remember
mastr414: 15 posts before the day is over
Tps7910: yup
Tps7910: who do you find suspcious so far
mastr414: i don't know yet
Tps7910: well
mastr414: no one's psoted yet
Tps7910: if you had to kill someone right now
mastr414: when i see like 10 posts from each person
Tps7910: who would it be
mastr414: as a wolf, or as a human?
Tps7910: mine would be charoltte
Tps7910: humanb
mastr414: charlotte too
Tps7910: maybe guido, or nforcer
Tps7910: trying to think who tass would pick
mastr414: not chardish or eb
Tps7910: well
Tps7910: ther dead
mastr414:
Tps7910: lol
Tps7910: so far im 2/2
Tps7910: but this 2 a night thing
Tps7910: is scaring me
mastr414: yup
Tps7910: charoltte imed me ealrier
Tps7910: and just said hi
Tps7910: and noting else
Tps7910: it was weird
Tps7910: like he was trying to establish himself on aim
Tps7910: but not talk too much
mastr414: she did that with everyone
mastr414: i assume she
Tps7910: o ok
Tps7910: she
Tps7910: the cool thing about this game
Tps7910: if someone gets lycnhed
Tps7910: and there human
Tps7910: u know
mastr414: ya
Tps7910: u might be the wolf
mastr414: ya
mastr414: i'm not
Tps7910: u worked with eb last game
mastr414: but i mig
mastr414: only cuz i guarded him
Tps7910: still
Tps7910: maybe u didnt want someone to know how you play
mastr414: Chardish contacted me pregame
Tps7910: and he must of had a good idea
Tps7910: maybe he said
Tps7910: argh, ur mean
Tps7910: and u were like
Tps7910: bye chardish
mastr414: no
mastr414: he said he thought i was human
mastr414: so we tlaked
mastr414: and figutrf er bnoth were
mastr414: why would i kill him if i was wolf then?
Tps7910: because u knew i was going to accuse you of this,a nd it would make sense not to kill him, so you would trick me into beliveing you were human, while this whole time it was a genious plan that you thought up
mastr414: except there are no special roles
mastr414: no need to get inside an alliance
Tps7910: i know
mastr414: nice try thouh
Tps7910: what does that have to do with anything i jiust said
mastr414: well why kill soeoen that thoguht i was human
mastr414: you say its to appear human to the others
Tps7910: because
mastr414: thus getting inside any alliance with them
mastr414: but there's no need
mastr414: becayse akill is a kill
Tps7910: well i will keep an eye on the forum
Tps7910: but i must return to my report
mastr414: ok
Tps7910: only 1200 words to go

This is just a theory, but i feel that it is better then a random post. Also, as in the convo, i am still currently writing the essay, but will be done shortly, then i will have time to type many more posts.

[Charlotte21]

Originally Posted by roopert

I thought I'd add another perspective to her. (her, right?) Still no vote from me.

Him.

EDIT: Her.

EDIT: lolol, not tellin u decide.

[GuidoHunter]

((Bah, didn't get a chance to post before I had to leave...))

So we're missing Gamma and Epsilon? Well, to be honest, that's kind of expected. After all, Epsilon was recently hailed as a very valuable person in another situation similar to this one and Gamma's proven his worth as an intelligent person, but so have others...

((Okay, rather than post much more, I really want to see the others get in here. It's not fair to those who've posted already that they're the only ones who could be incriminated at the moment.))

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[GuidoHunter]

Okay, time for some thoughts, before I forget them.

When I first saw who died, I immediately wondered why blah wasn't dead. He did extremely well in TWG VII and VIII, and certainly wasn't a hindrance in any previous TWG. On top of that, EB, someone with whom blah worked last game, is dead. Of course, I'm not going to use this to vote for him because I've been known to be susceptible to wolf reverse psychology, and leaving him alive could mean that Mirage wanted to pull this and fall for the above logic or that he trusts to be human whoever Mirage is.

Charlotte's being questionable simply because he's putting himself out in the open, either to earn trust or prove himself and get some friends. I've been talking to him for a while, but I haven't been convinced either way, possibly because I don't know him all that well.

alain's posted a lot, but nothing really meaningful, and there're still a lot of people who haven't said anything. I want something to go off of, dammit!

EDIT: Fuck, I forgot that I was just putting this down to be sent in after someone else posted, so excuse the double post. HOWEVER, why the hell hasn't someone posted in the meantime? That took a while to write, and the game's fresh.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Charlotte21]

Session Start (charlottesque:blahblah18): Thu Jan 13 16:42:26 2005
[16:42] blahblah18: gl
[16:42] *** Auto-response sent to blahblah18: I am currently away from the computer.
[16:42] blahblah18: welcome
[16:42] Charlotte Rene Vieu: hry
[16:42] Charlotte Rene Vieu: hey
[16:42] Charlotte Rene Vieu: sup blah
[16:43] blahblah18: hmm that was quick recognition
[16:43] Charlotte: haha
[16:43] Charlotte: lol, I added everyone
[16:43] Charlotte: and renamed them according to their username + codename
[16:43] Charlotte: on trillian
[16:44] blahblah18: hmm a likely story
[16:44] Charlotte: Ok
[16:44] blahblah18: thats damn suspicious
[16:44] blahblah18: i got you timestamped with swift recognition there
[16:44] Charlotte: I'm overly excited
[16:44] blahblah18: i'm sure you are
[16:44] blahblah18: how'd you find out bout this forum?
[16:44] Charlotte: arch0wl.com, spectere.net
[16:45] blahblah18: ok
[16:45] Charlotte: i heard flypie talking 'bout it once
[16:45] blahblah18: k
[16:45] Charlotte: saw it and was like "OMG THIS KIND OF LOGIC IS FOR ME"
[16:45] Charlotte: (if you've ever been to either place, logic is not their strongpoints there)
[16:46] blahblah18: no
[16:46] blahblah18: i've been to A0 now and then
[16:47] Charlotte: do you know kefit's aim, it's the only one i dont have
[16:48] blahblah18: kefit42
[16:48] Charlotte: thanks
[16:48] Charlotte: Talking to other people?
[16:49] blahblah18: o course
[16:49] blahblah18: u?
[16:50] Charlotte: just now starting, I was adding everyone's names and renaming them still just finished
[16:51] blahblah18: how convenient
[16:51] Charlotte: Isn't it though?
[16:51] Charlotte: lol
[16:52] blahblah18: so who else are you talking to then?
[16:52] Charlotte: I love the instant accusations we have with added smileys
[16:52] Charlotte: you, roopert, alainbryden, nforcer, tps222, guido, chardish, kefit, hansky
[16:53] blahblah18: what's hansky's IM?
[16:53] Charlotte: notsofaroff
[16:53] blahblah18: he's been idle forever
[16:54] blahblah18: how'd you talk to him?
[16:54] Charlotte: i said hi
[16:54] Charlotte: i got an away message, which said "bbl"
[16:54] blahblah18: am i the only one that messaged yhou first?
[16:54] Charlotte: Yes
[16:55] blahblah18: what's roopert's sn?
[16:55] blahblah18: good
[16:55] Charlotte: insanelycoolness
[16:55] Charlotte: Why is that good, may I ask?
[16:55] blahblah18: i like to know that i take initiative
[16:56] Charlotte: It's smart, and generally it would show humanness, but in a game with much required communication there can be no assurity (not sure if assurity is a word)
Session Close (blahblah18): Thu Jan 13 16:58:48 2005

This was the first person I had talked to since signing up, and because of my extreme hype for this game, when I asked him if he was talking to people and he said "o course", that made me believe that I needed to start talking to people because it was routine and I didn't want to be super-noob. I am not going to accuse blah of anything because: my IMs with him removed the nervousness I had for my first time in the game, I'm just showing that it was my reaction to a veteran player to message everyone, not that I am suspicious of him.

Am I suspicious still? Yea of course I am, but putting this info out in the open is not hurting anything for the humans. Remember: keeping information hidden is only helping the hunted win in a game like this.

(EDIT: Grammar fix.)

[Kilgamayan]

Post 1 of 5.

For the record, Tass, I wouldn't mind a reposting of all the remaining alive players after every Night because I don't follow the Greek Letters as easily as I would just names and I don't want to have to go back and look at the main list every time someone new dies.

Alainbryden - Alpha
Blahblah18 - Beta
Charlotte21 - Delta
GuidoHunter - Zeta
HansSky - Iota
Kefit - Kappa
Kilgamayan - Lambda
Nforcer06164 – Mu
Roopert - Omicron
The_Q – Pi
Tps222 - Rho
Tsuteto - Sigma

While Pi's survival seems pretty suspicious, I think that with only four days to work on this, the idea of Mirage producing such a scapegoat because a lot more feasible, which is most likely why Pi is still alive.

And note that Epsilon's death is not necessarily a reflection on those who played in the previous game - you only need have watched the game and read the postgame commentary to realize what he was worth to the human side.

PS: Hooray for eigenvalues. FEAR MY APPLICATION IN DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, BITCHES

λ

[GuidoHunter]

Originally Posted by Kilgamayan

PS: Hooray for eigenvalues. FEAR MY APPLICATION IN DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, BITCHES

Given the matrix A=
|2 3|
|3 -6|

What is your characteristic equation and what are your values?

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[blahblah18]

and I thought of Lambda calculus and programming in scheme...
and i see everyone copy pasted my convos and was like "hmmm"
I'm waiting to see just what I did that was suspicious... cuz I sure as hell don't see it, and I think EVERYTHING's suspicious

[Tsuteto]

Meh, I'll start posting tomorrow. I'm FAR too tired to think straight after tonight's DDR run. Oh, and sweet. I'm the main evil guy from Megaman X.

Well, until after school tomorrow (well, maybe later. I might barely make the five posts with how busy my weekend is going to be)

Post 0 of 5 (I'm not counting this one)

[Kilgamayan]

Post 2 of 5.

Oh my, it's been a while since I've done this.

Well, let's see.

|2-λ 3|
|3 -6-λ|

(2-λ)(-6-λ)-(3)(3)

λ^2+4λ-12-9

λ^2+4λ-21

(λ+7)(λ-3)

λ = -7, 3

λ=-7:

|2-(-7) 3|
|3 -6-(-7)|

|9 3|
|3 1|

|x| = |3|
|y| .. |1|

λ=3:

|2-(3) 3|
|3 -6-(3)|

|-1 3|
|3 -9|

|x| = |1|
|y| .. |-3|

Thus...

y = k1*e^(-7t)|3| + k2*e^(3t)|1|
.......................|1|....................|-3|

I believe that's the general form of the equation. Professor Pelosi would be proud.

blah: λ also has application in Calculus III when solving simultaneous equations in 3-D space that have a restriction equation in order to find extrema, but I've already forgotten what the proper term for them is in that case.

Proffesor Hoq would kill me if he saw this. >_>;

As for the game itself, nothing new has really come up since my last post, so there's nothing new to report in Lambda Land. Sorry.

λ

[Tasselfoot]

to clarify: saying 3+ or 5 posts was merely a helpful guideline... not an exact science or law

to kilga: I plan on doing that. Didn't think I needed to relist them for Day 1. All future days will though.

PS - expect some form of plot update from me tomorrow... none of you have as of yet continued the plot. I encourage all of you to explore the jungle, gather food, hunt, move towards fresh water, etc. Things that one would normally do while exploring the jungle.

[The_Q]

1-5

Ok, so here's the quesa-dillio.

Charlotte, being the newb he is, assumes that intellect causes me to be a good player of the game. I actually fit just about as many "Good" qualities as "Bad." What's the difference? How have I won so many games? Simple, I utilize my resources. Tass used to be my prime resource, him being the God of TWG. I don't play the game nearly as well as you'd think, though. Eyespew would point out that when I play a game I love using psychology. When I started Diplomacy I made a personal message "accidentally" be broadcast to every player. I started with very n00bish moves for a reason. Still, I've never considered myself the best player of this game.

Q

[Tps222]

yay, i finished my essay. Well, there hasn't been too much since the last time i posted,so i'll check back tomarrow in computers, and will post around 2:30. ..

[Kefit]

Chardish is dead. That's not surprising at all.

eb's death, however, is. Although eb has proven himself a good thinker in the past, most of his alliance work in game VIII fell right into his lap when he was successfully guarded night two. Nothing like that could happen this game, so I really don't think that eb would be one of the best choices for night one - he certainly isn't a weak player, but alain and especially blah strike me as players that I would much rather be rid of than him.

And as far as Tass's hand-picking of the wolf goes, I think that above all he wants an interesting, even suspenseful game. I imagine that he wants it to be quite close - to go to the third or fourth day at least, or for Mirage to barely pull out a victory. Because of this, I would be quite surprised if he picked someone fairly new to the game as wolf, like Tsuteto or Charlotte.

Oh, and I was going to write something about how Q really isn't nearly as good at this game as everyone seems to think he is, but Q himself already beat me to it.

One final thing - feel free to contact me on aim as much as you like. last game I was being very reserved on aim (very much for the reasons I gave, too - it had nothing to do with me being a wolf), but as part of my promise to be more active this game, I will be more open to aim chat.

[alainbryden]

There's some lying going on here. Q is too egotistical to say he's a crappy player. He's just trying to save his ass and convince the wolves that he's not worth killing. He's human.

[alainbryden]

Kefit, I predicted that Chardish and EB exactly would go, because they are both trustworthy people when they are human, because Chardish is a strong player, and because EB has history and ties with the many other strong players such as Blah and I that would force blame on us. But I'm not complaining. If the plan is for us to get lynched, then we may be left in the game. We can only hope. In the meantime, I think we can make any reason for Tass picking any level of player, so we shouldn't base our reasoning on a psychoanalysis of Tass, even if that's all we have. I'm glad everyone has to post, that way we will soon have something to look at for everyone, as for Kilga, I certainly hope he does not make those count as valid posts in the end, because all that pointless math stuff was a waste of thinking space. Kilga, you did this last game too, you need to be more relevantly active.

oh and for tass.... I wander around find a rabbit and shoot it. I think about eating it, but am not particularily hungry and don't have the energy to cook it so I shoot it again and take a walk thinking 'this doesn't really need to turn into an RPG.'

[Charlotte21]

Originally Posted by alainbryden

There's some lying going on here. Q is too egotistical to say he's a crappy player. He's just trying to save his ass and convince the wolves that he's not worth killing. He's human.

Do you really think someone as smart as Q would insert a strategy that would hurt the humans for his personal goals rather than do what is best for the group.

I personally at this point believe he is human, but that is only because I am making the assumption everyone is human until there is a little more stable evidence against someone. My vote for Q would be removed if removing votes were allowed because voting for Q based on the logic I used was newbish.

Q isn't being egotistical, he is being honest. I've looked through his past games.

Though this sparks a though (if you have seen A Beautiful Mind), the scene with the blonde and the thoughts on Adam Smith. If this were economics doing what is best for yourself would be helpful, but in this situation doing what is best for yourself is NOT helpful. The mentality of this game should be more John Nash than Adam Smith: for it is a group victory and not an individual one.

This game is unique because there is no way to make an failproof alliance, and no way to use signs of alliances or trust to find holes in logic. Therefore, it's much harder, and needs MUCH more communication. It also needs to get into the mentality of "Thinking of what is best for the group, not oneself."

I would say as a whole the two best things that can be done to help is:

1.) Explain your reasoning to the highest extent you can, maybe draw a little flowchart on a notepad to make sure it's precise and to the point you are trying to make.

2.) Post relevant things. Posting things that are not relevant just to get your "post quota" in is not helping at all, it is making the wolf and us easily suspect that you are a wolf when you may not be one.

This game is biased in the hunted's favour, we need to overcome that.

[Kilgamayan]

Post 3 of 5.

Originally Posted by alainbryden

Kilga, you did this last game too, you need to be more relevantly active.

Yeah, well, too bad.

Just because I don't post more than once a day doesn't mean I'm not around. I simply have nothing to say most of the time.

Deal.

If you want information from me, this is the best I can offer: Based on previous posts in this topic and on conversations held last night, my top 3 suspects are currently Delta, Kappa and Pi. Take that for what you will.

- Delta...something about the way he's acting just doesn't strike me a right. This is more a feeling than a logical conclusion, but I believe one should be entitled to such a thing.

- I've already forgotten why I'm suspicious of Kappa, I just remember that I was. If I remember I'll post it.

- Pi not only worked his butt off trying to show why he wouldn't be picked, he basically showed why no one would be picked. >_>

But hell, if I was any of the people talking to me last night, I'd be pretty suspicious of me, so take that for what you will as well. All I did was screw around and make light of the whole situation.

That's all for now from Lambda Land.

λ

[Charlotte21]

One thing kilga:

There is no need to make a post counter, and even if there were, your completely irrelevant post about martices shouldn't be counted because that is what it is: completely irrelevant.

It's more of a rough guideline and that's what tass stated. Post things when you think of them, or at least write them down, so that you can keep more than just suspicions.

If you are human just having suspicions without much evidence hurts humans, but nonethless you are implying that you will post two more times so I am hoping you are going to be more thorough.

About your suspicions about me: Good, anyone can see the reasoning for your suspicions against me because they can just read the previous three pages. Though your other two I cannot see as well, therefore to benefit the humans and yourself, I suggest writing down your ideas when they come to you so you don't forget them.

(Edited for grammar)

[Tps222]

Another day and still not much to go off of. Charolette is being very active, but his posts are relevant, so i don't care. The whole Blah is starting to look not as suspcious as it first did to me, but i will have to keep an eye on that. Some people need to start posting more, because this game is built off comunication.