Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns)

**MixMasterLar** · 10-9-2018, 10:30 AM

Pensacola, Florida resident here.

Hurricane Micheal is slated to hit around Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon. It's a Cat2 now but expected to make Cat3 by the time it lands

It spawned from no were and was way too wabbly at the start for me to feel good about it curving eastward, though. I expect it to shift west.

I also expect it to touch land and drop down to a Cat1 because I've seen so many storms do that in my life it's silly.

That said I live i a trailer that's kinda been needing a roof work surrounded by trees in a flood zone so uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh if it does curve westward and stays at a Cat3 I could very well be screwed. I don't expect that it will, but I can't take the risk

SO ALL THE IMPORTANT JUNK GETS TO GET RELOCATED TO MOM'S FOR THE STORM I GUESS

(Also I work all day Wednesday so that'll be fun)

EDIT:

Mandatory Evacuations just went out for the beach area. It's way too early for that unless we're expecting it to reach Cat4.

I don't see that happening but we'll see.

**aperson** · 10-9-2018, 01:37 PM

I could see a Cat 4 landfall from a strengthening system here. I'd place the likelihood at around 15-25%. Extremely rare for the panhandle but it will have very favorable upper atmospheric conditions up to landfall and will open up a strong poleward outflow channel as it approaches land.

I think the track is pretty dialed in though, there's very good model consensus today. Good luck, hope you don't get any surprises.

the sun fan · 10-9-2018, 02:58 PM

you're already aware of this but just because something is rare doesn't mean that it won't happen but I don't have the Florida Weather Sense that you posses. Stay safe, friend.

**aperson** · 10-9-2018, 06:47 PM

nvm lol this thing is almost a cat 4 now and still quickly intensifying good lord.

**Funnygurl555** · 10-9-2018, 06:49 PM

don't die mml who else will inadvertently make fun of my irl name

melonpapes · 10-9-2018, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555

don't die mml who else will inadvertently make fun of my irl name

yeah man

**MixMasterLar** · 10-9-2018, 10:32 PM

They're just expecting tropical storm level winds here at this point, so chances are I over reacted a bit.

I think Aperson is right on the money that it's gonna miss me but I did already plan for the worst so you know I might as well follow the plan yo. What's the worst that could happen?

**Charu** · 10-9-2018, 10:53 PM

So it went from cat 4 to tropical storm?

W h e w

Sounds like the constant cold to hot here in Michigan land. Doesn't know what it wants!

**aperson** · 10-9-2018, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charu

So it went from cat 4 to tropical storm?

W h e w

Sounds like the constant cold to hot here in Michigan land. Doesn't know what it wants!

No it's going to landfall as a moderate cat 4 most likely at this point. This will be a devastating, historic hit near the Panama City area. Pensacola will just see TS force winds and some power outages most likely.

**Charu** · 10-9-2018, 11:29 PM

Oh, rip, I'm dumb as hell and tired. Thought he meant the storm itself with that post

**awein999** · 10-10-2018, 12:08 AM

how much precipitation with this one? haven't been paying attention

**aperson** · 10-10-2018, 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by awein999

how much precipitation with this one? haven't been paying attention

This is a wind and storm surge event more so than a freshwater flooding event like Florence was.

There may be freshwater flooding inland as it becomes frontal around SC/NC/TN and runs into mountains.

**aperson** · 10-10-2018, 12:53 PM

NHC put the landfall at 155mph 919mb. 156mph is the starting speed for a category 5. The panhandle is getting their own Hurricane Andrew right now. It's unreal how much this system overperformed its whole life.

**MixMasterLar** · 10-10-2018, 01:00 PM

Pensacola is missing most all the fun, for the record. We're still suppose to get those Tropical Storm winds soon according to the radio but I have doubts; It's just a little rainy here.

Legit concerned for my peeps out East though. I know they prepared hard for this and we really did expect it to drop as it reached shore but that shit isn't happening.

**aperson** · 10-10-2018, 03:18 PM

brick / concrete structure failures: https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/sta...01176681881600

This is every bit as bad as Andrew. If you have any previous knowledge of what storms "usually do" it's time to throw that knowledge in the dumpster in a world where sea surface temperatures are 1-2C higher.

Florence was very close to doing the same until it ran into some marginally unfavorable conditions at just the right time and people used that dud as an excuse to think that's what always happens.

**aperson** · 10-10-2018, 03:19 PM

And if you are ever in a storm surge zone this is why you listen to evacuations: https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/st...01707622031365

melonpapes · 10-10-2018, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aperson

And if you are ever in a storm surge zone this is why you listen to evacuations: https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/st...01707622031365

daaamn

**demonllama6124** · 10-10-2018, 08:49 PM

Yeah.......that storm fucked up my town pretty bad. Yall have no idea how much devastation it caused. So many buildings, schools, even shelters were ruined.The media isn't showing it all, and making it seems its not as bad as it really is. go figure. Glad I listened and evacuated. I'm almost positive I will come back to a flooded house

**MixMasterLar** · 10-10-2018, 10:31 PM

It looks liked it hit you guys dead on, Even Tally is reporting some serious damage.

And right now it's a Cat 1 over Atlanta or some shit looking at the Doppler. Like what the hell?

**demonllama6124** · 10-10-2018, 10:55 PM

Its unreal, like something out of a movie. I have no idea how I am even going to begin to recover from this nightmare

10-9-2018, 10:30 AM	#1
MixMasterLar Beach Bum Extraordinaire Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: The Emerald Coast Posts: 5,211	Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) Pensacola, Florida resident here. Hurricane Micheal is slated to hit around Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon. It's a Cat2 now but expected to make Cat3 by the time it lands It spawned from no were and was way too wabbly at the start for me to feel good about it curving eastward, though. I expect it to shift west. I also expect it to touch land and drop down to a Cat1 because I've seen so many storms do that in my life it's silly. That said I live i a trailer that's kinda been needing a roof work surrounded by trees in a flood zone so uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh if it does curve westward and stays at a Cat3 I could very well be screwed. I don't expect that it will, but I can't take the risk SO ALL THE IMPORTANT JUNK GETS TO GET RELOCATED TO MOM'S FOR THE STORM I GUESS (Also I work all day Wednesday so that'll be fun) EDIT: Mandatory Evacuations just went out for the beach area. It's way too early for that unless we're expecting it to reach Cat4. I don't see that happening but we'll see. __________________ Facebook / Youtube / Twitter . Last edited by MixMasterLar; 10-9-2018 at 11:07 AM..

10-9-2018, 01:37 PM	#2
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) I could see a Cat 4 landfall from a strengthening system here. I'd place the likelihood at around 15-25%. Extremely rare for the panhandle but it will have very favorable upper atmospheric conditions up to landfall and will open up a strong poleward outflow channel as it approaches land. I think the track is pretty dialed in though, there's very good model consensus today. Good luck, hope you don't get any surprises. __________________ Last edited by aperson; 10-9-2018 at 01:37 PM..

10-9-2018, 02:58 PM	#3
the sun fan FFR Player Join Date: Mar 2017 Age: 29 Posts: 444	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) you're already aware of this but just because something is rare doesn't mean that it won't happen but I don't have the Florida Weather Sense that you posses. Stay safe, friend. __________________ TWG Stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing FFR is a pretty good place somehow.

10-9-2018, 06:47 PM	#4
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) nvm lol this thing is almost a cat 4 now and still quickly intensifying good lord. __________________

10-9-2018, 10:32 PM	#7
MixMasterLar Beach Bum Extraordinaire Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: The Emerald Coast Posts: 5,211	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) They're just expecting tropical storm level winds here at this point, so chances are I over reacted a bit. I think Aperson is right on the money that it's gonna miss me but I did already plan for the worst so you know I might as well follow the plan yo. What's the worst that could happen? __________________ Facebook / Youtube / Twitter .

10-10-2018, 12:53 PM	#13
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) NHC put the landfall at 155mph 919mb. 156mph is the starting speed for a category 5. The panhandle is getting their own Hurricane Andrew right now. It's unreal how much this system overperformed its whole life. __________________

10-10-2018, 01:00 PM	#14
MixMasterLar Beach Bum Extraordinaire Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: The Emerald Coast Posts: 5,211	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) Pensacola is missing most all the fun, for the record. We're still suppose to get those Tropical Storm winds soon according to the radio but I have doubts; It's just a little rainy here. Legit concerned for my peeps out East though. I know they prepared hard for this and we really did expect it to drop as it reached shore but that shit isn't happening. __________________ Facebook / Youtube / Twitter .

10-10-2018, 03:18 PM	#15
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) brick / concrete structure failures: https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/sta...01176681881600 This is every bit as bad as Andrew. If you have any previous knowledge of what storms "usually do" it's time to throw that knowledge in the dumpster in a world where sea surface temperatures are 1-2C higher. Florence was very close to doing the same until it ran into some marginally unfavorable conditions at just the right time and people used that dud as an excuse to think that's what always happens. __________________

10-10-2018, 03:19 PM	#16
aperson FFR Hall of Fame Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Houston Posts: 3,428	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) And if you are ever in a storm surge zone this is why you listen to evacuations: https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/st...01707622031365 __________________

10-10-2018, 10:31 PM	#19
MixMasterLar Beach Bum Extraordinaire Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: The Emerald Coast Posts: 5,211	Re: Hurricane Micheal might be an issue (My predictions and concerns) It looks liked it hit you guys dead on, Even Tally is reporting some serious damage. And right now it's a Cat 1 over Atlanta or some shit looking at the Doppler. Like what the hell? __________________ Facebook / Youtube / Twitter .

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