10-3-2016, 06:23 PM | #41 | |
Beach Bum Extraordinaire
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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The second one didn't go far enough to get the info Also to clarify; I'm very aware I need more then just that to lynch someone. It was a great conversation starter though, and it doesn't hurt to consult it if you absolutely have no idea how to proceed. |
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10-3-2016, 06:25 PM | #42 |
Beach Bum Extraordinaire
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
That said I wanna read the games AA posted as examples of it not holding true. I'm intrigued on what that looks like.
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10-3-2016, 07:31 PM | #43 |
Unacceptable
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 208
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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10-3-2016, 09:12 PM | #44 | |
Custom User Title
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,105
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
I totally helped guys
I actually laughed out loud when kitb hit AA and he was a wolf
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Taking "all" oddjobs! PM me requests. Requests filled: 2 last active Mar. 6th, 2017 |
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10-3-2016, 09:16 PM | #45 |
Waifus
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
did you think I was a wolf
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10-4-2016, 07:47 AM | #46 | |||
FFR Simfile Author
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 108
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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It's still kind of early to analyze the balance of Turbos, seeing as there have only been five so far, and only the last one had all of the D0 checks given out (plus, town did some really lol-worthy plays in most of them) This seemed really weird, from your point of view the checks should have almost confirmed that the seer was either MML or me. Anyways, fun game, I'm glad I was somewhat able to fulfill my role as seer. Shoutouts to MML and DFR for saving town from being fucked on D1
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10-4-2016, 08:30 AM | #47 |
scumfan is scared of aa
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
It's tunnelling when you stop reading posts and completely misremember events in a way that makes it more convenient to you imo
Whether or not you brought up good points, it was hella tunnel.
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Last edited by danceflashrevo; 10-4-2016 at 08:30 AM.. |
10-4-2016, 03:10 PM | #48 | |
Role Tide
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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there might just be one i'm too lazy to check
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10-4-2016, 03:24 PM | #49 |
Picker @ JAX2
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 505
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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10-4-2016, 03:35 PM | #50 | |
Role Tide
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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The wolves can get rid of the seer in two ways at that point, killing them n1 or getting the seer lynched the following day (I'll talk abot why leaving both seer claims alive for one day is a pretty bad idea specifically in this setup) by fakeclaiming. So, obviously, the wolves would prefer to kill the seer n1. It leaves the game with only one confirmed town member, and I think the demoralization of town once this happens is not something that should be understated. But, lets assume that they make two seer reads, kill their strongest seer read, but they flip as vanilla town. Several things happen. First, the check that this vanilla town left d0 becomes pseudo confirmed town. Wolves killing a player that left a wolf as their check is a pretty risky gambit that is more likely to bite the wolves in the ass than pay off because it assuredly leaves the seer alive, meaning the number of confirmed town almost always increases once the seer outs. Second, the seer likely claims the following day. The reason for this is that it will either force the wolves to fakeclaim in order to stand a solid chance at the game, or, if the wolves do not believe that a fakeclaim is viable, they will be forced into a very difficult scenario to achieve victory in. The seer likely has two clears, or one clear and a redcheck, sometimes they only have one clear and very rarely have something other than that, and that means that, combined with the pseudo-clear from the vanilla town's check from the nightkill (assuming no overlap with the seer or the seer's clears), town has 3 (+1) confirmed town or 2 (+1) confirmed town and a confirmed wolf, and occasionally less than that. As a side note, leaving both seer claims alive in order to get more info is completely useless because the seer will be nightkilled if they don't have a red-check that wins the game, and if they do have this red-check, lynching anything other than that red check is a pretty terrible idea, mathematically. The wolves can also leave the seer alive, meaning that town doesn't actually gain any more info most of the time, because they are still forced into making a decision about which seer is the real one. Let us now assume that the top town seer reads for the wolves are wrong, and that a wolf fake-claims with a red on their top seer read, or something of the like, and is wrong again. They are still not in that bad of a position, because their fake red check could be lynched, meaning that they are able to kill the real seer the following night because their claim is known to be false at this point. Its still not very ideal for the wolves (not as good as hitting the seer n1), but it gives them the best chance of winning, as they stand almost no chance of beating the seer if they leave the seer to their own devices at that point. In the best case scenario for town, that's auto if the believe the vanilla town's d0 check to be town, which means that the wolves pretty much have to fakeclaim to have a chance. That is how the setup is balanced; it forces the wolves to eliminate seer candidates based on how they feel like players are posting (does Player A actually feel like they know Player B, who is their claimed check on d0, is town or not?). It truly makes rolereads the most important thing for wolf survival. It doesn't matter how good you post on d0; you need to find the seer n1 or get them lynched the following day phase in order to have a chance. Of course, lets say that the wolves fakeclaim and get the seer lynched d2. Of course, the wolf who fakeclaims will be lynched, and the night before, the wolves pick off one of the real seer's clears, and they do so the night after one of the wolves is lynched as well. Town now has no 100% confirmed members left, one pseudo-confirmed member that is usually town, one unconfirmed vanilla town vs one wolf. Even in that scenario, wolves are not especially favored, because the last wolf probably had to push on the real seer (meaning they probably don't look too good), so making a believable fakeclaim is very important, because the wolves want the other town members at that point to look just as bad, at least, as they do. The setup has a lot of swing in it, but its the good kind of swing, where the swing is dependent upon how well town (including the seer and the ability of vanilla town members to look like they're the seer) is playing vs how well the wolves are playing and able to sift through the fake checks given on d0. This is wholly different from the kind of swing present when, say, three doctors are present in a C9++ roll. All in all, the setup is balanced despite this swing because the swing is entirely dependent upon skill, and the town and wolves really do make their own beds. Until this game, we had no seer that lived until d1 and was believed, which goes to show how important hypoing d0 is. tl;dr the setup is balanced both mathematically and skill-wise. Fakeclaiming is an important tool for the wolves that should be utilized as often as possible otherwise they are probably gonna get fucked.
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10-4-2016, 03:49 PM | #51 |
Role Tide
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
something that was not mentioned this game;
when Haku died James May should've been pseudo-confirmed as the wolves are going to try and kill the seer the first night, meaning (and this is especially clear given AA's discussion on how he thought Haku was the seer) that the wolves believe that James May is the seers green, meaning James May is almost always town (given that the wolves are not pulling a gambit).
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10-4-2016, 06:56 PM | #52 |
T-Force's Rival
Join Date: Dec 2010
Age: 27
Posts: 1,865
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
did you guys kill t-force like you were supposed to
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10-4-2016, 07:28 PM | #53 |
Waifus
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
play
sign up
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10-4-2016, 08:46 PM | #54 |
Your world ends with you
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Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame
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