Predict: How long until 100 D7 players?

[rushyrulz]

Put in your predictions for the date when the top 100 will be all D7.

My Prediction: 3/21/2019

All Predictions:

Walrusizer		Already (u know what I mean walrus man)
drizzleRomanceGirl	May 2, 2017
RenegadeLucien		December 31, 2017
PrawnSkunk		August 1, 2018
Kawaii025		Late 2018
_Zenith_		2019-2020
rushyrulz		March 21, 2019
thesunfan		July 18, 2019
TC_Halogen		August 2, 2019
TheFFRPerson		January 1, 2020
SpaceGorilla		2020-2022
Ghost_Medley		December 7, 2021
korny			Never
Xiz			When FFR gets its 2 millionth member (meta AF)

[drizzleRomanceGirl]

nine months

[korny]

There will never be 100 active D7 players

[TC_Halogen]

Originally Posted by korny

There will never be 100 active D7 players

back when D7 was created i'm pretty sure no one would have predicted there to ever be more than 25-30 players (first tournament featuring a D7 only had 13)

now we've got 61 statistically calculated D7 players, with at least 80% of them likely being D7 through manual checking of level ranks

3 years seems quite viable and would actually be relatively linear given the initial introduction of D7 in a tournament (8th official)

[PrawnSkunk]

from the wayback/google leaderboard archives

33 2/18/2015
36 4/20/2015
40 7/30/2015
49 11/2/2015
50 3/18/2016
55 6/21/2016
59 07/13/2016
61 8/1/2016
65 9/17/2016
...51 10/16/2016 (lol shifting goalposts)
82 10/21/2019

[SpaceGorilla]

make sure to exclude me in your estimates; i will never have decent good counts

also, if i were to guess, i would say 2020-2022 would be the years we see 100 d7 players (excluding ones that fell out or became inactive)

[_Zenith_]

imo it's very reliant on how active high d6 players are at the moment

There will surely be outsiders from other rhythm games that can probably jump straight to D7 but again, I feel like it relies on more factors that cannot be concretely decided

2019-2020 is the range I'd say there will be 100 D7 players

active d7 players is another question

[Walrusizer]

there probably already are 100 d7 players if you include those from other rhythm games

[korny]

Originally Posted by TC_Halogen

back when D7 was created i'm pretty sure no one would have predicted there to ever be more than 25-30 players (first tournament featuring a D7 only had 13)

now we've got 61 statistically calculated D7 players, with at least 80% of them likely being D7 through manual checking of level ranks

3 years seems quite viable and would actually be relatively linear given the initial introduction of D7 in a tournament (8th official)

Won't happen. Loss of interest/college/work will intervene. Unless some unforeseen huge influx of newcomers suddenly pours into the site, getting more than double the 80% of your 61 won't happen. The necessary exponential growth you claim is viable has never come close to happening so why would it now when this site isn't anywhere near the height of it's activity? Enlighten me old sport

[top]

Youre all missing the real topic...

2020 IS LESS THAN 4 YEARS AWAY HOYL FOK

[EtienneSM]

Originally Posted by Walrusizer

there probably already are 100 d7 players if you include those from other rhythm games

This is probably pretty true actually.

[rushyrulz]

I mean strictly FFR leaderboards. There are definitely more than 100 D7 players across all arrowsmashing venues.

[One Winged Angel]

Yeah 100+ 'D7' 4k players already exist, they're just not recognized on FFR's leaderboards due to either not having played this particular 4k game or not having played enough FFR for the leaderboards to accurately reflect their skill level.

The current requirement for hitting D7 on the leaderboards is quite low...not to an incredibly significant degree of error but many would agree it's definitely lower than it should be given that some players recognized as D7 on the leaderboards are not placed D7 in an official tournament. If the threshold remains consistent, I could see 100+ within a few years. If it's shifted to where it should be (or tightened beyond that point?), much longer than that.

Given the level players are currently recognized for reaching D7 on the leaderboards, if the threshold isn't moved up, I seriously think recognizing D8 on FFR should be considered. And especially now with the number of very hard files being added. Would provide incentive to mid-high D7 players that have lost interest in the game to come back and see how far they could optimize their stats in an effort to reach that point. Mind you it's probably next to impossible playing FFR alone, but with the influx of harder files, who knows.

[thesunfan]

July 18th, 2019

[rushyrulz]

Originally Posted by One Winged Angel

Given the level players are currently recognized for reaching D7 on the leaderboards, if the threshold isn't moved up, I seriously think recognizing D8 on FFR should be considered.

Honestly would prefer a D8 than a tightening of D7. The guys up in the D7 stratosphere are so out of everyone else's league it's sickening.

Problem with that is that there would be very few people in D8.

D8 is already a colloquially accepted thing, and not just a joke anymore as well. Like people actually use it seriously.

[Fantasticone]

How many D9 players in 2020.

[Rapta]

I played osu for a month and got to rank 1K so I assume there's around that many d7 players at least

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by Rapta

I played osu for a month and got to rank 1K so I assume there's around that many d7 players at least

If you only did 4K to reach that rank then no, there isn't that many 4k D7 players as you are thinking.

Most of the upper 1000 on Mania play more than just 4K.

[Rapta]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

If you only did 4K to reach that rank then no, there isn't that many 4k D7 players as you are thinking.

Most of the upper 1000 on Mania play more than just 4K.

Yeah I only did 4k

That makes sense.

[TheFFRPerson]

Considering the rate of people being promoted to D7 I think maybe in like 2020 there will be 100 D7 people, including the inactive. Wait, you don't like Comic Sans?