TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

[DaBackpack]

I think AA is truthful and raeko is lying

I'm sorry

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this is the exact scenario I'm slightly worried about because it guarantees an instalose

So let's consider this scenario again

Let's say I'm wolf with a partner and haku is initiate. We've somehow found out that he is in fact initiate, or rather with him claiming mvx it's obvious

We can look at worst case with haku already converted

Right now it's then 5:3:1

Dbp confirmed, charu confirmed, blind confirmed.

Haku vs Mellon

If Mellon loses claim war game is over at night.
If Mellon wins claim war, 5:2:1. Wolves kill dbp, 4:2:1 going into day.

Again, if mislynch then gg.
If my partner is lynched, 4:1:1.
I kill Mellon, 3:1:1.

Now it's mylo because charu doesn't count

It's me, blind, and two others. It would be pretty easy to mislynch one of the other townies over me. And me not dying isn't suspicious when I'm just VT and unconfirmed, of course they'll kill confirmed PRs first.

So even with this scenario there's still an incredibly high chance of me winning. Fakeclaiming, while forcing the scenario earlier, has a much higher chance of not working and then the whole team dies because haku is outed, I'm outed, and partner is POE with 4 confirms

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

Nah I don't buy a VT claim from you at that point in the game

Maybe you do it but it raises mad suspicion cause you've avoided it several times before

I can claim I was trying to blue cover because I had a PR read on Mellon

You yourself were trying to cover in the same way for me

[TWG Ike]

AA that wolf scenario is sketch cause there was no death, your team would have shot Haku last night TO initiate him lol, you would have planned this in day chat cause informant is still alive

[Charu]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I think AA is truthful and raeko is lying

I'm sorry

I know the feeling. I just don't see AA being remotely a part of the the wolf teams...

""""""""""""""""""""plan""""""""""""""""""""

None of the scenarios, except for mellon being the wolf here, make sense to me. Absolutely none of them

This is why I'm hoping maybe mellon can shed something, anything, to make it look like AA would do something like this.

[TWG Ike]

I bbs I also think it's AA town Mellon vig but being wrong is game losing so I'm very hesitant to commit, especially when lynching Haku could be winning on both fronts if his role works for gamma

[TWG Ike]

Mellon wolf lol

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

AA that wolf scenario is sketch cause there was no death, your team would have shot Haku last night TO initiate him lol, you would have planned this in day chat cause informant is still alive

And it's considering the scenario where haku is a member of the full scum team, look at how I ran the numbers

Still wouldn't fakeclaim as a wolf there it's dumb and risky but I've talked about this enough

[DaBackpack]

oh wait, if Haku is actually wolf-aligned MVX, where the hell did the third nightkill come from?

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

I bbs I also think it's AA town Mellon vig but being wrong is game losing so I'm very hesitant to commit, especially when lynching Haku could be winning on both fronts if his role works for gamma

Mellon shot haku so it's highly likely she's the strong wolf pr that can strongman kill (mad scientist) or janitor kill so she needs to die otherwise I could be roleblocked

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

oh wait, if Haku is actually wolf-aligned MVX, where the hell did the third nightkill come from?

Savior suicide
Wolfkill sunfan
Me shooting shado

[Charu]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

oh wait, if Haku is actually wolf-aligned MVX, where the hell did the third nightkill come from?

If this is actually the case, then look at Savior role again. They probably used their action... and it failed.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

Savior suicide
Wolfkill sunfan
Me shooting shado

who did Haku say he shot n0?

[Charu]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

who did Haku say he shot n0?

thesunfan I believe

[DaBackpack]

Three nightkills, let's pretend AA is vigi.

sunfan ---- claimed by Haku.
Shadow ---- claimed by AA.
kirkfan ---- claimed by wolves OR self-destruct

[DaBackpack]

the head-scratching part is related to kirk, this whole time I couldn't believe she would use her ability N1, considering how likely it is to fail

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Three nightkills, let's pretend AA is vigi.

sunfan ---- claimed by Haku.
Shadow ---- claimed by AA.
kirkfan ---- claimed by wolves OR self-destruct

nvm this doesn't depend on AA being vigi

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

nvm this doesn't depend on AA being vigi

wait yes it does lol, because of the haku thing

if AA is wolf:

shadow: claimed by raeko
sunfan: unclaimed
kirkfan: unclaimed

which only works if wolves killed sunfan and kirkfan SD'd

[DaBackpack]

I honestly can't believe that kirkfan SD'd night one

[DaBackpack]

if she did, then ANGRY FACE