TWG XXIX Crack Dens and Avenging Angels

[Kilgamayan]

Damn, I wish Jurs could get on. Given the idea that one of the three of us who voted Fish is a wolf and I trust talisman a bit more, I want to hear what she has to say.

[Tasselfoot]

I, personally, would be much happier if there was more than 1 post per 12 hours.

I, personally, have tried to be as active as possible... but for even my amazing level of skill... I can't really post and be active when nobody else is posting for me to comment on.

Gamepro was banned in the last game he played because he was uber inactive... I think I can go ahead and make the statement that if he is NOT more active for the rest of this game, he WILL be permanently banned from TWG. Perhaps that will be a decent enough incentive. I also feel comfortable in saying (despite not talking with the rest of TWC... but they do tend to listen to what I say) that the rest of the people who we deem to be equally inactive will face a 2 game ban. Again... perhaps that will be a decent enough incentive.

Such people on my personal inactive list, you might ask? Hans, Wilkin, Jurs, tasuke, gamepro. Blah has also been fairly quiet.

[Tasselfoot]

Also talisman has not posted in 28 hours. Not quite like him, if you ask me.

[blahblah18]

what's to say? no one's saying crap.. we have nothing to go on whatsoever.. clearly I feel some suspicion on talisman as my day 1 vote said... and your'e right about the crap ab out him.. clearly doesn't mean anything though

[Kilgamayan]

bjstrattonIM: So of the three of us who voted for Fish
bjstrattonIM: Who do you suspect the most?
TasselFoot: talisman. then you. then jurs.
bjstrattonIM: After you brought up the 28 hours thing
bjstrattonIM: I've been wondering about him myself.
bjstrattonIM: Shame he's not around
bjstrattonIM: By the way, I realize I've been going off of stuff you've come up with a lot
bjstrattonIM: But with the lack of a seer or anything similar, there's no real alliance, at least not one that grows daily
bjstrattonIM: Which leaves us all with nothing but what's presented
bjstrattonIM: And you're about the only person with half a brain that's posting with any frequency >_>
TasselFoot: this is true.
TasselFoot: but i also noticed that it was "my" logic that was the reasoning for fish getting lynched.
bjstrattonIM: This is true
TasselFoot: and while i did suspect him, the fact that he came back human... makes me wonder.
bjstrattonIM: But it wasn't you who voted
bjstrattonIM: So I don't place much blame on you, if any
TasselFoot: exactly. wolves love being able to throw my name around as a reason.
bjstrattonIM: I certainly blame myself more
bjstrattonIM: Also true
TasselFoot: the aim thing with talisman bugs me as well.
bjstrattonIM: I have nothing to do tonight
bjstrattonIM: I might just go back through the thread - little as there is - and try to produce something of my own
TasselFoot: go for it. can't hurt.

*gap*

bjstrattonIM: Okay
bjstrattonIM: I found this from iggy
bjstrattonIM: "And you did the same stupid thing vash did where you sum up the obvious without puting any of your own input in. Something I find very wasteful."
bjstrattonIM: In response to blah posting some one-liner that had no relevance to anything
bjstrattonIM: And in reading through before that and looking at him
bjstrattonIM: He was doing that a lot himself >_>
bjstrattonIM: Stating the obvious and not really contributing anything meaningful
bjstrattonIM: Also Hans is making a ton of curt one-liners himself
bjstrattonIM: Actually reminds me of myself in a way >_>
bjstrattonIM: Shorter posts than I make, but more of them

The last part was me in the middle of page...4, I think. The rest of my thoughts, generated by reading the rest of the thread, are as follows.

I did notice iggy started making a few posts with more content, but his vote for Neo makes me linger with him still. Neo was making him a pretty easy target early on in the day. I know if I was a wolf, I would've gone after him, because I tend to go after weaker players who drop reasons for me to vote for them in my lap. (Chardish pointed this out several games ago.)

Hans didn't change much.

I still agree with Tass that the talisman thing is odd.

Someone I feel better about after reading through is Wilkin. Given his short history here, I have a feeling that if he were a wolf he would want to put more effort into the end of Day 1 than he did, if for no other reason than to present himself in a good light to the potentially judgemental crowd.

Tasuke I also feel better about because of how loltastic his posts were (I would think that if he was a wolf, he would be getting spoon-fed what to say), but he probably won't make too much of a difference either way.

And yes, I realize I haven't been Mr. Active myself and that I look pretty bad/stupid for being one of the three to vote for Fish.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Originally Posted by iggymatrixcounter

But anyways I think I said it in that convo that I have jumped down on the suspicion of mini

At the time I said that he was also my best bet. But after looking at a couple of other logics other's are starting to rise even though everything seems so narrowminded and/or too general.

I thought I would have gotten more discussion from what I posted about people being wolves. That was one of my reasons for doing that. But I guess you don't mind me stepping all over you XD. On a more realistic note I'm looking at: tass, talis, mini, maybe kilga, maybe wilkin as my wolf suspects. T and T because they haven't been wolfed (but perfect frame job also), mini because of reasons stated many times (though still weak and narrow theories at best) kilga is more of gut feeling from his first post, wilkin for contributing less than last game I remember him in (though same was said of me last game and I was human.) So still really nothing concret to go on in any case.

Another route to go on is inactivity, I mean since pretty much wolves have to be found by talking on AIM and posting, it gives them a huge advantage to just play on the fence and be ok. A lot of people fit this category also.

On another note, I was considering the thought that tass brought up about a wolf being in the 3 votes of fish. Normally I think this is true since if a wolf sees that a human is about to be lynched, he pushes it so that it happens. (fish got one more vote than mini did me thinks.) But since the wolves don't know each other, I could definitely see them playing it safe and voting safety votes so as to not accidently lynch a wolf. (which could explain why so many people got few votes, in addition to everyone not knowing much). But that also depends on how active the wolves talk to each other via their fake SN's.

I've got a couple more thoughts, but I'll let you chew on that for awhile. I came back from an Axis and Allies tourney and don't have too much thinking power left. (I got stuck with Russia... the worst and weakest of all five countries if you ask me.)

[Wilkin]

While Tass' idea of a wolf voting for Fish seems sound enough, one other thing has crossed my mind...

Gamepro. Now, I don't know him at all, and didn't even know he existed until Mead brought him in, but one thing I have noticed about replacements in the past is that their first or second post is usually something about their ideas on the last X pages. Assuming Gamepro was capable enough in the past to be brought in as a replacement, absence of anything worth reading from him is odd. All of his [two] posts consist of helplessness, asking for 15 people to IM him or just complaining about no one talking to him. I'm practically always on AIM, but just not always big on the talking, and I seem to get information fine by actually reading the thread.

Wat really makes it peculiar is the coincidence of Vash also being very inactive and unhelpful. If the V/G role is in fact a wolf, then they've been doing a fine job avoiding any suspicion.

Also, I found the idea that Iggy presented of the wolves safety voting interesting. Maybe we should bring up the list of people that seemed to make "random" votes (modified from Iggy's post on page 13):

Fish (3) - Kilga, Talis, Jurs
Afro (1) - Hans
Mini (2) - Fish, Iggy
Blah (1) - Afro
Hans (1) - Guido
Talis (1) - Blah
Gamepro (1) - Wilkin
Wilkin (1) - Tass
Kilga (1) - Tps
Tass (1) - Tasuke

What a list. Assuming Tass is correct in that one of the Fish voters is a wolf (possibly even the MW, as he would have nothing to fear since he knows who the other two wolves are), then it's almost certain that the other wolves are part of the single-voted crowd: Hans, Afro, Blah, Wilkin, Tass, Tasuke, plus Gamepro and Mini. If this is accurate, and we're assuming none of the wolf chats involved the MW hinting another to lynch Fish, then we have a pretty average list to choose from (one out of four being a wolf). That said, I will state my feelings on...

Hans. Inactive for the weekend (legitimately), and otherwise being more active than he was last game, even if his posts aren't anything substantial.

Afro. Seems to be acting pretty natural from what I remember from the past games. Don't know much more, though.

Blah. Nothing posted of large content, kind of playing the neutral, ignorant to the larger posts role.

Wilkin. You can only take my word that I'm not a wolf.

Tass. Acting pretty Tass-like. As of now, I'd like to wait a day to see how he reacts to the game.

Tasuke. Seems to be going under the radar at the moment, coming out pretty much only when Tass says something about him.

Gamepro. See above.

Mini. No idea. Leaning on the human side, though all of his recent posts have been a running debate between him and Iggy.

Voting ends in about three and a half hours (6:00), and there hasn't been a single vote made. Interesting. I will wait to see how the thread develops before making my decision.

[talisman]

so I'm here... no real excuse (because I need an excuse?) for not posting in the last X hours or whatever. I did check the thread a few times but that's about it.

Anyway, my thoughts on people:

Tasselfoot - Unless he's playing a huge reverse psych game I don't see him going after guido, and probably not nforcer either. Lean towards human.

Talisman - human

nforcer - human

FishFishRevolution - human? or the master, a possibility I'm not going to rule out.

Afro - My number two suspicion yesterday. I didn't like the way he was defending other people (fish comes to mind) and in general looking like he was trying to stay in the background. But maybe that's just afro? Dunno, the human afro I always think of is the tireless human trying to get tass lynched all the time... not the guy that deliberately (deliberate meaning avoiding everyone everyone else was considering) votes for someone (blah) who would probably never let someone like nforcer be killed night one.

Tasuke - no clue. He IMed me once near the end of day one... it was a fairly short convo and I think all he really said was that tass always seemed suspicious to him.

Kilga - Either way really. I don't really buy the "one of the wolves had to have voted for fish" theory because, I mean, only three people voted for him. If like, five or six had, then yeah, I can see making that statement. But with only three I think it's not quite as statistically valid. (3 wolves 15 players you'd need five I think before you could even claim statistical support). But about kilga in general... I don't know. The first post could go either way, as others have mentioned. Would kilga wolf nforcer and guido? I don't know about that... if he were a wolf you'd have to assume that he was taking a really passive role in selecting the kills or something.

Wilkin - Don't really know about wilkin. Posting a bit less than he did before, not sure if that means anything, but it could.

Iggy - To me the way he's going so hard after mini seemed pretty human. He also seemed human to me just talking with him day one about making up a set of three questions, and he had some good original ideas that if I were a wolf I'd be hesitant to share, knowing they could be used against a fellow wolf.

Jursey - IMed me near the end of the day, was complaining about not knowing who to vote. I told her no one seemed to, that even tass had semi-random voted. She asked if it would be ok for her to vote for someone "just because he's a ***" or something like that and I think I said a more supported vote would be preferable. Nowhere in our brief convo did she mention fish, so she must have just picked that up from the thread I guess. Human or wolf I'm 50/50 on her, but keeping a close eye.

MiniNeo - the only thing about him that really made me consider him yesterday was the way he was talking about situations that the wolves, not knowing each other, would end up in... but that's fairly weak, and given his not voting and general unrestrained nature, I think I lean human now.

TPS - unless for some reason nforcer came to tps during night one and told him he [nforcer] was the interrogator tps is human.

Hans - a lot of short posts like kilga said, his first post seemed a bit eager, I dunno. I did agree with his vote though. Could go either way, but I think I lean wolf a little bit, depending on what I think of afro.

Guido - human

blah - gotta lean human on blah... he just would make those kills, unless he's finally cashing in on his reputation or something. He also seemed very human to me when we talked day one.

Vash/Gamepro - no posts = no clue. Also, I think this was already said, but gamepro if no one is talking to you maybe you should go out and talk to them...

And I was going to do a connections analysis here but I just realized it'd be worthless this game since the wolves don't know each other.

[Afrobean]

Damn. Day ends today?

Is it just me, or is this game flying by without things happening?

Ugh.

I don't feel like making up a list thing, so I'll just say this: I agree with Talisman about most people. Few noteworthy exceptions:

Tass: definitely thinking human, but I don't see what Talisman means about Guido. Tass would kill him. And if he wouldn't, he'd kill him because he wouldn't kill him. That's why kills are an inneffective way of guessing the wolves.

Talisman: can't get much of a read off him. Seems normal. I'd think that Talisman is good enough to be normal while being a wolf though.

Jurs: That story about jurs sounds pretty bad in my opinion. Why would she go from not knowing who to vote for to voting on the winning guy in such a short amount of time? One would think she'd go for a safety vote, or at least put a vote on someone else with no votes who she thinks might be a wolf (see my vote and many other of the votes from yesterday).

blah: see Tass above for why someone's humanity cannot be proved based on kills that have been made. Definitely a good chance of being a wolf in my eyes. In fact, maybe the MW is a newb and chose nforcer/guido/whatever without consulting blah (that'd be a bad mistake in my opinion...), but yeah, that's definitely plausible. It's not so much that I think he's a wolf hardcore or something, it's that I'm dissappointed for people thinking that he's not a wolf because of it.

and of course me haha.

I don't see anything really worthy of a vote though. I'm going to put my vote to jurs for now (meaning it's subject to change if need be). Two reasons: insane innactivity with no talk of a replacement and this little thing talis said which I'll assume to be true.

[talisman]

Well, I feel that with tass and blah at least it does count for something that they wouldn't normally kill guido or nforcer... and I did include caveat phrases like "unless he's [tass] playing a huge reverse-psych game" and "unless he's [blah] finally cashing in on his reputation."

[Tasselfoot]

Wilkin... I pointed out before that GP is NOT a player worthy to replace someone else. Like I said... the last game he played, around twg12 or so, he was given a 2 game ban for inactivity. Frankly, he would be one of the worst replacement choices I could think of, up there with Moogy. I told Mead this (after the fact, of course...).

I feel blah is human for the reasons talisman said. Blah and I just would not kill nforcer/guido.

Talisman's most recent post does alieviate some of my suspicion on him... the fact that he brought up fish as possible MW is interesting, and something I had honestly never considered. His points on iggy's activity in regards to finding interrogator questions is accurate in my book too.

I'll have a vote soon enough... although I see a bunch more phantoms, unless Mead extends the day.

PS - I told him this over AIM, but I'll say it here... Mead is doing a real ****ty job of keeping everyone informed of when the day ends and the current voting pattern (day 1... clearly there have been no votes today).

PPS - Nobody cares to comment on my threats of future game bans for continued inactivity? Or is it just that those who were named are still inactive and haven't read my comment.

[talisman]

so I recovered my log with fish (from fish) although bits and pieces are missing (from when fish was at school) and it's way out of order and stuff. Anyway, here's a particularly interesting segment I just found (from day one):

10:03:24 PM insanelikeafish: hans imed me earlier today with a sort of odd conversation
10:03:24 PM stressreliefball: it's just a manner of getting one of the questions phrased in such a way that it's clear to mead what a truthful response to it would be <in response to earlier stuff>
10:03:38 PM stressreliefball: with whom? <I think I thought fish said hans had sent him a convo for some reason>
10:03:39 PM insanelikeafish: ah
10:03:58 PM insanelikeafish: 2:29:00 PM notsofaroff: would you agree
2:29:09 PM notsofaroff: that Guido is almost definitely human?
2:46:11 PM insanelikeafish: well
2:46:17 PM insanelikeafish: after that comment i would lean that wya
2:46:18 PM insanelikeafish: way*
2:46:25 PM insanelikeafish: but not as definite as you're saying
2:46:39 PM notsofaroff: loosely based on his complete ignorance of the roles
2:47:04 PM notsofaroff: I was talking to him on AIM, and he wasn't sure how the wolves worked either..
2:47:11 PM insanelikeafish: he could be playing it that way
2:47:21 PM notsofaroff: Either he's doing it on purpose...but I doubt it,
2:47:26 PM notsofaroff: .
2:48:07 PM insanelikeafish: do you have an example you can show me?
2:48:16 PM notsofaroff: Not at all.
2:48:25 PM notsofaroff: If I KEPT logs
2:48:28 PM notsofaroff: Then yeah
2:48:31 PM notsofaroff: But I don't.
2:48:39 PM notsofaroff: you can ask guido
2:48:44 PM notsofaroff: or I can ask guido
2:48:50 PM notsofaroff: but I doubt he keeps logs too
2:49:05 PM insanelikeafish: = (
10:04:24 PM insanelikeafish: that's teh entire thing
10:04:28 PM insanelikeafish: just sort of like
10:04:36 PM insanelikeafish: "you dont' really suspect guido, do you"
10:04:59 PM stressreliefball: hmm
10:05:24 PM stressreliefball: I dunno, I don't think his ignorance of how the roles work is any real indication of anything
10:05:38 PM insanelikeafish: yeah
10:05:43 PM stressreliefball: you'd think the wolves would look up how the angel plays though
10:05:53 PM stressreliefball: but then again, they did kill nforcer
10:06:26 PM insanelikeafish: yeeeah
10:06:48 PM insanelikeafish: something to watch for

I find it pretty interesting that hans mentions guido as being very human like that... possible reason for then wolfing him? As fish said "something to watch for".

[Wilkin]

Well, an X-game ban would help to weed out inactivity in general, which would be good. The last game would have been a Hell of a lot better without it. I think that it could be implemented for this one.

For example, after the game is over, maybe TWC could talk about the inactives (without good reason) and decide on a course of action depending on the circumstances (how long they were alive, whether or not their sparse posts were relevant and thought out). The more that these games slow down, the more they start to look like the more recent jTWGs, some of which have failed miserably. Plus, with Mr. I'm-on-the-TWC over there starting this discussion, it'll probably make me post more, so I'm for it.

On Gamepro, Tass... I was just wondering why Mead chose him, considering his inactive past/ban. All the same, it doesn't make the V/G role any more human. Just more annyoing.

[Kilgamayan]

Originally Posted by talisman

Would kilga wolf nforcer and guido?

I'll be honest, I would give consideration to Guido Night 2. He's not at all a bad selection and tends to be a better player as a human by his own admission.

nforcer, however, I would never select Night 1 unless he actually came to me beforehand that he was a blue role, and even then I would possibly leave him to Night 2 just so I wouldn't have to deal with the potential scenario of him telling someone else he told me what he was.

[Kilgamayan]

Also, kinda offhand, I find it funny that Afro not only hasn't gone after Tass with a vengence this game, but even backed him up on Page 6 when Hans wanted to hear from Tps.

[MiniNeo]

So yeah, less than three hours left there are still a bunch of people who have yet to post.

I think I will just randomly pick one of the inactives to vote when the deadline comes around if nothing else develops =S

[Kilgamayan]

Er, Page 7. Sorry.

[talisman]

probably better to go by post number since page numbers aren't constant (for example I go by 40 per page).

also, I agree about gamepro and whatnot... probably should have replaced vash with pumble... I see this guy viewing the thread all the time.

[Kilgamayan]

Post #131 then.

[Tasselfoot]

as per Mead (I can't directly post the convo, for the obvious reason...), GP was picked because LITERALLY nobody else was online. Apparently eb, ap, reach, and a few others that I mentioned were all not around (or not on his buddy list). He wanted someone ASAP to replace Vash, and GP was the first person he got ahold of.

Sucks for us.