TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

[TWG Pit]

3 minutes left ummmm

[TWG King Dedede]

no lynch

[TWG Mega Man]

Please trust me on this.

The best thing we can do with these Oracle reveals and potentially a shitton of blues in the pool is no lynch.

Please vote no lynch.

[TWG Pit]

i'll switch back to villager at like 11:59 if this doesn't work out heads up

no lynch

[TWG Mega Man]

One more and I think we win the game.

[TWG Little Mac]

no lynch

[TWG Pit]

sweet

alright see you guys later

[TWG King Dedede]

DID THAT JUST HAPPEN?

THIS GAME IS NUTS LOL caps

[Xiz]

Vote count: (5 to insta)

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Nobody dies. Night 8 continues. Will end in 24 hours. PM me your night actions.

[TWG Mega Man]

I am deliberately not explaining myself until Day phase.

Wolves, you have a choice: Let me live and tell everyone why you lost, or kill me and hope that nobody reads my posts hard enough to put it together for themselves.

[TWG Mega Man]

The best part is it's completely irrelevant whether Pit and Greninja are both telling the truth or not.

Either scenario is auto-win for humans.

Do you see it, wolves?

[TWG Mega Man]

No claims until morning.

[TWG Mega Man]

Who's excited? I'm excited.

[TWG Mega Man]

Pre-writing this and posting at dawn.

Ike, you're a brilliant bastard. You made this suggestion at one point. It didn't really sink in until the Oracle reveals, but now we can safely make the assumption there is, on average, one role per possibility. Basically, there's either a bunch of blues left in the game, or we have caught a wolf in a fakeclaim, and we can force this game state into human win.

Plan: Human Victory Group

- Players Greninja (A) and Pit (B) are either wolf and Oracle, or two Oracles. Either way, we agree that A+B act like proper Oracles, and behave in human win interests as part of the Human Victory Group.
- We are in a race of cardflips. Whether there is a Wolf in A+B or not, wolves cannot wolf A+B because wolfing Oracles adds one cardflip to the human pool. This extra cardflip is game-losing because it either autokills a wolf or auto adds a replacement to the Human Victory Group. (It goes without saying that wolfing the other wolf will lose the game as well.)
- Player Mega Man (C) volunteers for Human Victory Group, bringing it to A+B+C. A+B+C have an accord - they vote together in the interest of humans, in spite of the fact that there may be 1 wolf in them.
- If triggered, Oracle cardflip is agreed to be subject to democracy, and therefore can't be against the human cause as long as democracy is adhered to.
- There is 5 humans and 2 wolves. If A+B+C do not lynch within autowin group, we take turns lynching and wolfing players D+E+F+G.
- There's a trick to the lynches: If we're about to lynch a blue, they claim, we stop, and that player becomes part of autowin group. If we're about to lynch a green, they hard claim and we pass them, temporarily.
- There's a trick to the claims: If someone claims a role you have, you immediately counterclaim.
- It will also help if we don't have Bombs claim for the first "round" of claims. First we do lynches where you claim if you're anything but Bomb - then we do another pass where if a Bomb is about to be lynched, they step up.

With me so far? Here's the good bit.

- There's a trick to the counterclaims: There's only so many roles. We have every reason to believe we still have a Bomb, and a Guardian still in the player pool. But we don't have any reason yet to believe multiple roles are valid, so any duplicate claims will be taken dubiously. If multiple roleclaim pairs come up, we have reason to believe the players have the 2 wolves in them, and they become the new lynching pool with the auto-win pool inverted. That is, auto-win circle becomes whoever was not in auto-win circle before. We also do this if we lynch a wolf, because the pair of Oracles we have is suspicious in itself.
- If auto-win group attempts to lynch a green, they pass that player.
- In the unlikely case we get more than two pairs of counterclaims - i.e. there really is two of a role - we observe the Trinity of Balance (i.e. how OP 2 of them would be). The Quintessence of Balance is as follows:
Oracle << Guardian << Gunsmith << Bomb << Seer
So the new lynch pool would be the four players at the rightmost end of this spectrum, basically.

...Whoa. Okay, let's break this down:

- The wolves have two options: Make 2 fakeclaims, or make 0-1 and lose 1 wolf guaranteed.
- If the wolves don't counter-claim make 2 counterclaims, they don't both get in the auto-win group and we narrow it to 1.
- If the wolves make two counterclaims, the auto-win circle inverses and we have a pool of 2 pairs with 1 wolf per pair, which is also auto-win conditions.
- If the pool inverts with me in it, I get put back in the auto-win group. I know I'm steering really hard right now, but I feel like I've convinced everyone of my greenness pretty handily at this point, and I'm asking you to trust me on this. This will work! I'm Mega Man!!
- Auto-win group is always bigger than lynch group.
- This isn't guaranteed victory, this assumes 1) Mega Man is human as he claims, 2) wolves don't do A VERY RISKY BUT CLEVER THING THAT GIVES THEM A SMALL CHANCE AT WINNING, WHICH I WILL POINT OUT LATER. 3) Integrity of the Quintessence of Balance, 4) Wolves don't luck the hell out and hit Guardian tonight. Guess we're finding out in 5 seconds!

[Xiz]

In the night...



Greninja has died. She was the Oracle.


Greninja's action has been triggered. The oracle revealed....

Boo? What are you doing you silly? You don't belong here! Oh well, what a shame.

Day 9 starts now, will end on November 1st @ 11:59pm server

[TWG Mega Man]

YES.

OMG WOLVES.

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP! caps

[TWG Mega Man]

So wolves made a terrible move and used their kill on one of our blues.

The cool thing about this is we can now use democracy to cardflip someone of our choice, and add them to Human Victory Group, keeping our cardflips up to pace and possibly even revealing a red right away.

Who got it? Don't use it until we figure out who to put it on, but it'd be good to know.

[TWG Mega Man]

What we should do with this Oracle cardflip is hold onto it until later in the phase. Once we've got our auto-win group built up, we follow the plan up until we've formed our auto-win and lynch groups fully, and then use the cardflip on a lynch group member to either catch a wolf immediately or put a player permanently into the Human Victory Group.

If we have everybody here, we can start by having all non-Bomb blues claim immediately!

[TWG Mega Man]

Wait a second.

Does that Boo mean Oracle got roleblocked? Shit.

So much for +1 HVG member.

At the very least, one Suspicious Pairing member is dead, so as long as 2 unclaimed blues remain in the game this plan still works and Human Victory Group always is larger than lynch group. I am confident that there is.

[TWG Pit]

that was such a dumb kill

ok so you guys like get that as a wolf I would never make that kill right?

mega man I can't read what you typed right now since i'm trying to get something done but i'll get to it