TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

[TWG Zelda]

You guys are awfully quiet!

[TWG Zelda]

I sent in my kill, can we start the day already?

[TWG Pit]

yeah can we kill Zelda now

[TWG Zelda]

No, no you can not.

[TWG Zelda]

Where's your long post mega man, I need a good laugh!

[TWG Mega Man]

It's coming. I got some other stuff to do first. Later this evening!

[TWG Zelda]

On a serious note, based on the flip (so basically answer this after the flip) who do you feel is the last two wolves link and Charizard?

[TWG Zelda]

This isn't on the main page what is wrong with you guys???...!!!???...!?!.!?.?.?!?!.!?.??.!

[TWG Ike]

its the night phase
there's not a whole lot to discuss at the moment
just hold tight for a little while longer.

[TWG Pit]

someone wants to play twg

actually that's worrying me a bit wolves should feel a sense of defeat not excitement

[TWG Pit]

so you're perfectly aware that if you're a wolf you're more than likely gong to lose this game right

you hear that wolves
sweet

[TWG Pit]

Originally Posted by TWG Pit

gong

:gong:

[TWG Ike]

honesty I'm not gonna fight hard for Zelda b/c I already have an auto-win circle but I think Zelda's more town just from behavior BUT WE ALL KNOW HOW WELL THAT'S WORKED FOR ME THIS GAME

[TWG Mega Man]

I'm exhausted, so there isn't going to be a nice flow to me ripping up Ike. Luckily, I don't have to speak on behalf of the posts very much.

1. D1

Initially, there's a bit of distancing between Ike and Bowser, with Bowser voting for Ike. So it's kind of odd that when votes start building up on Bowser, Ike puts him in his green pile. Upon Villager asking why the hell he's there, he basically just says gut, but then also says that means he shouldn't have votes on him:

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

his posts have a very natural feel to me
I literally don't understand why he has anywhere near the votes he does
I mean his reasoning for voting then unvoting then revoting me was dumb, but its not inherently wolfy.

Also, when I took some heat off of Pikachu for shitposting since he's at least active and paying attention, Ike takes this to the next level and suggests that I'm reading Pikachu town, which I was in no way doing.

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

I feel like he's getting beat up b/c he has an actual reason for reading Pikachu town rather than just not wanting to lynch him so that a lynch isn't wasted.

This post is interesting now that Fox has flipped:

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

Look, I used the language I did b/c I felt like I didn't have a read off of that post. Maybe that made my type nothing or w/e. Earlier in the game I typed Wolf instead of Fox, I don't think I'm known for my amazing posting formulation. You're making a big deal out of next to nothing.

But mostly what I'd take home from D1 is that he was very quick to defend Bowser in spite of the fact that Bowser was voting for him on and off for basically no reason.

--

Ike was complaining about lack of things to discuss, so I'm going to just post this analysis one part at a time as I finish them.

You're welcome!

[TWG Ike]

I wasn't complaining about the lack of things to discuss, Zelda was.

I felt like Bowser's posts early on felt very natural. I liked them because of that. This is pretty ironic b/c the last time I saw choof play as a wolf I immediately called him out for difference in tone. Yeah it was an early read, and one that I felt less and less comfortable about until his claim. The viscosity in my read on him is apparent. For you to say that I am a partner with Bowser here through this logic is pretty simple to do, and I can do exactly the same thing with what you said about Pikachu (even though you didn't town read them, you still went against the grain of the thread in your opinion of them, which is what you're basically calling me out for.)

And yes, I called them town while they voted me. I don't care if you think I'm a wolf or not, that doesn't really influence my opinion of you. This is what players who can think beyond the first level of meta are capable of doing. Once people voted and unvoted you, you went into clear OMGUS mode. The fact that you have since tunneled on me doesn't change my read on you, and it never really factors into how I read people.

And yes if you care about the third post that you quoted then you are, in fact, making a big deal out of nothing.

Yes, Bowser was voting me "on and off" and I was still reading him town. Big deal.

[TWG Mega Man]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

The viscosity in my read on him is apparent.

Let's talk more about viscosity in reads, shall we?

2. D2

So after claiming on D1 that he felt like Bowser was town, Ike makes a reads post, where he suddenly 180s and agrees with the votes against Bowser. This is his explanation for the change:

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

Bowser Their activity as well as ok posts made them townie enough for d1 in my opinion. However, they've had weak pushes, especially on me since then. I think I'm starting to see the light on them. Their lynch would also probably provide a fuckton of information. I know I'm accusing them of the high crime of having an odd tone across their great amount of activity, but I think that their reads have been very opportunistic. Would love to see pressure on them.

Bowser

Note how the last thing he said about Bowser was that his posts had a "natural feel", but over one phase decides that it's an "odd tone". In response to this, Bowser backs off of Ike and decides that Ike's not in his sights anymore. This would make sense for two wolves, as distancing is one thing, but cannibilizing is asking to lose.

In that same reads post, he says that reads me green. However, when the votes start rolling up on Bowser...

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

well
looking at the wagons now, neither one looks that great based on the people in it. Do not be surprised if I end up moving my vote elsewhere

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

I might just end up voting mega man b/c I feel like it gives the most info here. The lynch on Bowser feels less and less good, slightly because of what Mashi has said, mostly because of the apparent apathy that Bowser seems to have. I don't think he's enough of a bitch to do this as a wolf.

So now he's decided that instead of someone he's reading red, he's going to switch to someone he just finished reading green. I don't know what Mashi said, because I'm not paying attention to identities, but it's clear that a lynch on a wolf for a wolf would feel less and less good as it becomes closer to actuality.

Next, Dedede points out that it could be wolfy for me to be acting sure that I know there's a roleblocker in the game. When I explain that I am almost positive just based on the game design, there being a bunch of blues and all, this is Ike's response:

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

the existance of roleblocker shouldn't really matter at this point in time.
Mega Man probably raises a good point that I hadn't thought about.

This is odd because he both shoots down what I'm saying and also agrees with it. It's odd for him to shoot it down at all, because as I say in my immediate response, the existence of a roleblocker mattered a lot at that point, since Peach had already claimed Gunsmith to the thread.

Bowser attempts to discredit my incredibly valid point by passing it off as me looking for someone to roleblock. Ike entertains this dumb idea:

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

that's like
terrible if you're the roleblocker b/c all you're doing is softing to town that you're the roleblocker. Your team already knows you're the roleblocker.

This is not why it's terrible, though. As I pointed, the main reason that the "looking for someone to roleblock" notion is frivilous is that wolves weren't even looking for someone to roleblock. Peach's claim was right there, why the hell would wolves be looking for someone to roleblock? This entire exchange felt shifty and disingenuine.

And I think both Bowser and Ike knew it, because then a series of very strange events happens very quickly:

1) Bowser hints that he has a blue role.
2) Ike unvotes Bowser.
3) Ike pushes him to hardclaim.
4) Bowser fakeclaims Cop.

The most telling thing here is the tone. Ike is panicking!

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

you already claimed too hard.
My bad for starting this fucking wagon ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

but yeah you should probably hard-claim it after that post

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

...Bowser?

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

dude Bowser you can't just drop the mic after that shit

anyways those opposed to a Mega Man lynch need to look at other targets b/c we're sure as hell not lynching Bowser now

This reads plainly to me like a push to get Bowser to take attention off of their strange exchange, and to get the lynch on a different path. Without stating his position on me (which we last heard was a green read), he probes the thread to see what direction it wants of the next two options: Me, or Mario?

Then he probes a little harder, still without making an actual vote:

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

I'm to the point where I don't think I can justify myself not voting on the Mega Man wagon. Unless I'm just terrible at this game, I don't see wolves on that wagon outside of possibly Kirby and Samus, maybe Link or Zelda. Also Mario is worthless, I agree, but his lynch is worth about as much as he is.

Maybe I'm a donk but I'm throwing my hat into the Mega Man ring probably

What the fuck is this?

Ike takes his vote off of Bowser, who he just finished reading red. He puts his vote on me, who he just finished reading green. And he justifies it with what is possibly the most ambiguous thing I've ever read in TWG: "I don't see any wolves on that wagon outside of maybe Kirby and Samus and Link and Zelda." Maybe 4/6 people in the vote are wolves, but I don't see any wolves on it, guys! Oh, and he just finished reading Zelda and Samus as green. All without making a vote.

This does not resemble a real human thought process at all.

And we're just getting started!

[TWG Mega Man]

That last point got really convoluted (almost as convoluted as his reasoning), but basically what I'm getting down to there is that what a real human would have done in that situation is immediately vote for Mario, who he just finished reading wolf, but instead he was desperate for a reason to vote me, who he just finished reading green.

Because I was on the scent, and he knew it.

[TWG Mega Man]

I technically linked to it in a quote, but here's that D2 reads list that is completely inconsistent with his D2 actions.

[TWG Mega Man]

This is a really lame thing to do after finishing the last post with "we're just getting started", but I'm short on time and dying to go to sleep, so this bit's going to be kind of skimpy.

3. Defending Bowser, and the Surrender

After the claim, I spent a significant amount of time attacking Bowser, and Ike spent an equal amount of time fear-mongering. As every day passed, it became more apparent that what I was saying was true, but in spite of the growing pile of evidence against him, Ike clung desperately to the vaguest hope that Bowser could be telling the truth.

He argued that a Roleblocker could feasibly favour a Gunsmith block over a Cop block. When Kirby came out, he argued that there was any chance in hell that there could be two Cops in the game. When it became clear that we were looking to lynch Bowser, he continued to try to scare humans with talk of how crazy it'd be to kill anyone who claimed Cop, even if it looked unlikely to be true.

He clung to this ridiculous notion long after humanity had accepted it as truth and moved on.

And when we shot Bowser, Ike's posting died with him.

I think that Ike is another Bowser case. I think that he invested into Bowser in an attempt to keep wolves in the game, and when the curtain came off, he knew that he was too implicated to continue playing the game.

None of his votes are in the right place. He didn't vote Pikachu, he voted Kirby over Fox until the reveal, he voted off of Bowser and onto me, and then onto Mario when it was clear that I wasn't going down without a fight.

I am almost sure he is red.

[TWG Ike]

as for you "being on the scent" I actually wasn't really sure where you stood exactly, if my memory serves. Maybe I just don't remember right, it was a while back. I guess that's not really too important.

Yeah my read on Bowser changed. It was not a result of not wanting to bus (meta, I don't soft or hard bus basically ever unless I'm busing Xiz b/c that's fun) or anything, it was because I had been rereading the thread trying to figure out why so many people were reading him scummy. I realized not only that my read wasn't as strong as I thought it was, it also was pretty bad. For probably the only time this game, this turned out to be a correct read of mine. You're talking as if a changing read is inherently wolfy. You should know better. Humans should reread the thread and keep an open mind. I kept mine open and I corrected a false read. It was mainly his behavior. I felt like it was getting odder and odder as the game went on, especially his weird votes on me. Once he claimed cop it all made sense to me; he was just nervous b/c he was a role, that was my thought. I've seen it happen all the time.

And yes, while you did bring up a point that there almost certainly is a roleblocker, and that point is rather sound and also almost certainly true, that shouldn't have mattered at that point since we were getting close to lynching people. Mechanics shouldn't have been the topic of discussion, the hangman's noose should've been, that was my point with that post. So what if I acknowledged you made a point I hadn't considered. That's not even contradictory. I don't even say your point is wrong or bad, I just didn't think it was relevant. Get over yourself if you think that's me slipping on a banana peel when wording a post.

And no I never entertained the idea Bowser brought up. I simply acknowledged it as terrible wolf play. That's because it is. And yes Peach's claim was right there but that wasn't relevant to my point against Bowser. It was at this point in responding to your post that I almost said that "No roleblocker would ever soft to town that they're the roleblocker" but then I remembered I've seen a game where someone was dumb enough to do that. So I guess that's not the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Still, its a terrible play, and that's all I meant by that post. The fact that you call "softing roleblocker" not a terrible play actually made me laugh, btw.

And yeah, no one should ever just softclaim a role like that because of several reasons which I might look dumb for pointing out in hindsight. The main one being that all you're letting mafia know is that you're a role, and they might vote you and attempt to play it off as not noticing the post or saying they don't believe the claim, etc. It doesn't work like that in forum TWG. In some mediums it does, but not text TWG. Also, you're just robbing town of the info of your check if you're a cop or a doctor because if you die the following night, this is ToS where there's wills; the info is just lost. And yes, you don't vote a claim there. Ever. There's a reason you were the only one voting for Bowser; its because voting a cop claim there is such a bad play that it wishes it could be a shit tier play someday.

And yes I was upset that I had gotten dAnceguy germs or something where I out roles. I had led a lynch on a claimed cop. This is different from the Falcon lynch because this is something *I* did wrong, not someone else. I felt bad. I thought I had screwed up. If anything, you should thank me b/c we probably wouldn't be in this position if I hadn't of led the lynch on him.

And we didn't get much info from the Captain Falcon lynch, so I wanted info. I incorporated wagonomics and attempted to see how was voting who and whether or not it was coming from a townie mindset. I looked at the people on both wagons and felt like Mario was getting pushed by the wolves whereas there were a lot of people I was reading at least town leaning that were voting you. No one was lock clear, and there were 4 possibles that I named in my post. I didn't think they were all together, almost certainly, which is what I meant when I called them out. I still think that there's at most 1 wolf in those names. Obviously, this makes more sense now but w/e.

Also I unvoted you in the end because of the emotion in your posts which I felt was genuine. I had no reason to do that as a wolf. Maybe if the other wagon was a wolf I get some townreads for going hero mode or something, but as a wolf I would have no reason to hop between the bandwagons there.

But yeah, bring up more things that are this easy to shoot down. I'm waiting for you to bring up a point I can't respond to. Surely there's at least one or two if I'm as confirmed of a wolf as you say I am?