jTWG LXVII: 0rbs of idk lies I guess

[thesunfan]

going to work
BE GOOD

[Toxophilis]

praise the sun

[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by XelNya

You are thinking too hard, I am sadly not that clever. I wish I was truly and honestly if you were right I wouldn't even care, I'd give myself up on the spot for you figuring that out.

Fair enough. That interpretation was a bit of stretch anyways. That was the only reason I had to maybe consider that you may be a wolf, so I'm going to consider you town for now.

Reading back in the thread, I noticed that blanky's initial vote was towards you before he was even suspected of anything. Suppose you were a wolf. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a blanky, a wolf that wasn't suspected yet, to put you, another wolf, in the spotlight in the beginning of day 0 since that could easily escalate to you, a wolf, being lynched. Thus, I feel strongly atm that you are indeed town. Now, as for any of other blanky's votes and suspicions (which I haven't looked into detail yet), I don't feel I can exactly claim a similar result because there were a lot of other factors and variables to consider as the day progressed.

I know that many people (if not most) believe that you are in fact town so this post may seem redundant, however, I just wanted to clarify that I no longer have any suspicions towards you at this moment.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by reuben_tate

Fair enough. That interpretation was a bit of stretch anyways. That was the only reason I had to maybe consider that you may be a wolf, so I'm going to consider you town for now.

Reading back in the thread, I noticed that blanky's initial vote was towards you before he was even suspected of anything. Suppose you were a wolf. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a blanky, a wolf that wasn't suspected yet, to put you, another wolf, in the spotlight in the beginning of day 0 since that could easily escalate to you, a wolf, being lynched. Thus, I feel strongly atm that you are indeed town. Now, as for any of other blanky's votes and suspicions (which I haven't looked into detail yet), I don't feel I can exactly claim a similar result because there were a lot of other factors and variables to consider as the day progressed.

Say we have three wolves like we do this game.

Wolfs:
A
Blank
C

Wolf Blank votes for wolf A
Wolf A votes for wolf C
Wolf C tosses a vote at random but it doesn't land on Wolves A or Blank

When voting Wolves A and C both provide an argument with a bit of trolling tossed in to create fluff and hide their lack of a strong argument.

Congratulations you've now distanced your selves, minimally, but you have. You've also now created doubt as well for later game. You just have to carefully word those arguments or it will bite you in the ass. You actually would want to actually kinda frame them if this is what you're doing. (Just make sure the argument is shitty enough.)

This is just my understanding of how it works in theory though.

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

I really had the orb. I said I faked claimed to not get night killed. I have a feeling lurker knew that and killed my target to waste the seer orb, not have it brought back faster.

That seems a little farfetched considering that he'd have to bank on the third not using theirs and he'd have to assume you'd use yours (which admittedly is a safer assumption.)

[reuben_tate]

Thinking back to what I just said, Xel was already kind of "in the spotlight" before blanky voted for him. blanky might have seen that many people were already hopping on the "lynch Xel" bandwagon and might have assumed at that point that that was going to be the outcome of day 0. If he did make this (bad) assumption, it's not too far-fetched for blanky to vote for Xel if Xel was a wolf because Xel would have been lynched anyways (under blanky's false assumption) and voting for him would would make him initially appear human for "blending in" the bandwagon.

So I'm still leaning that Xel is most likely town, but I can't say that I am 100% sure of that.

[reuben_tate]

dang it, ninja'd by Xel. And I don't have cookies to give.

[blindreper1179]

Towards Xels comment to me:

It's a small chance but bare with me people.
If lurker is the wolf with another wolf having the wizard orb, and he knew I would seer T, that would waste my orb. It's not going to come back any time soon unless they want to use the wizard orb to try and block the tracker. Which is pointless imo if wolves have it.

[blindreper1179]

Seriously no one has anything?!?

[XelNya]

I have a spoon.

[danceflashrevo]

Please correct me if I'm wrong but the orbs have to be used during the night phase correct?

[danceflashrevo]

Oh and I have a towel because I just took a shower. That's what I have. And a phone.

[blindreper1179]

I hate both of you

[danceflashrevo]

Whaaaat I asked a legitimate question :c

[thesunfan]

should be where we're at:

Votecount:
blind- Tox
lurker- Choof

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

Whaaaat I asked a legitimate question :c

Yes, only during the night.

[lurker]

Originally Posted by blindreper1179

If lurker is the wolf with another wolf having the wizard orb, and he knew I would seer T, that would waste my orb. It's not going to come back any time soon unless they want to use the wizard orb to try and block the tracker. Which is pointless imo if wolves have it.

if the wolves had both the vigi orb and the wizard orb they'd be lucky as fuck

i think the fact that they went after owa means they very well could be holding the wizard orb and are trying to kill the tracker so they don't find out, even though they already know who has the wizard orb
that they decided that it was more important than rendering your orb useless is even more damning
however, i don't see why a human would reveal themselves if they used the wizard orb
is there a single target they could've chosen that wouldn't bite them in the ass if they went public with it

[lurker]

also, keep in mind that using the wizard orb was the best plan for a human last night
they'd know not to pick you, and last night was probably the best chance we'll get at getting all 3 orbs into pro-town hands

[blindreper1179]

Originally Posted by lurker

if the wolves had both the vigi orb and the wizard orb they'd be lucky as fuck

i think the fact that they went after owa means they very well could be holding the wizard orb and are trying to kill the tracker so they don't find out, even though they already know who has the wizard orb
that they decided that it was more important than rendering your orb useless is even more damning
however, i don't see why a human would reveal themselves if they used the wizard orb
is there a single target they could've chosen that wouldn't bite them in the ass if they went public with it

That's what I'm saying. The chances are slim, but they are there. The tracker already knows the three that started with the orbs. I personally think they shouldn't claim, but use it next night phase if they didn't this last phase. Restoring the orbs regardless of a wolf getting one, the humans are for sure getting one. What scares me is the vigi orb. Like "you" last night phase, we didn't get to talk about it or have hints thrown at us. It's not very town like of you to use the vigi orb on T, because even if I didn't have the seer orb, quite a few(choof and owa if I remember correctly) at least wanted to know what T was. He was "must likely to be seered" imo.

[blindreper1179]

When I said they shouldn't claim, I meant the wizard orb holder*

[blindreper1179]

Ok, I guess I'll wait till eod for people to post a storm.