TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Yes he's drawing attention to himself, as I said seems like a way to make people think it's just typical middie. A general mindset I've seen is that a wolf wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves but that's why I think he would do it.
There's no real pressure on anyone with the votes being spread out. Now with mine there's 3 if I'm not mistaken. That turns up the pressure a little bit.

Can you point out where he drew attention to himself before I drew attention to him?

[Vendetta21]

I play better in the spotlight in general because I'm a control freak.

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by Silvuh

Xiz, what do you think of Plop moving his vote to the other player who was moving farther up your mafia list. Again, you didn't respond directly to Plop for making a vote you should have found interesting.

I wasn't paying attention and skimmed over it oops. I was too busy being worried about Gradiant and sunfan, even though Plop is high on my list.
He stated 'for pressure' right? I believe it but don't believe it. There are so many other good targets to pressure over blind, for how little he has given.


(Also, I was gonna post yesterday but I got home late at like 2am and was too tired)

[Xiz]

When was the last time Xel was a wolf? I don't think I have played with him as one.

[Xiz]

Also I still like killing sunfan over everyone else today still. His early responses of me on him were too weird.

I will wagon on sunfan, plop, or dabackpack as of right now if those wagons pick up.

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Do you think I'm a wolf Xiz? Surely you must have some reason for saying that.

Again Xiz literally has not said anything about this

You'd assume that Xiz is looking for wolves and that he thinks I'm a wolf, right? That's what a normal vote means. Then I'm asking him to say it directly.

Meh, I'm starting to think that it's a poor choice to kill you early. Not because of what you said at all, but you die and get miss-lynched a lot because you rarely fight for yourself (and you are easy for wolves to hop on to early)



So out of anything, the people on the xelnya wagon are now people I am interested in

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by Xiz

So out of anything, the people on the xelnya wagon are now people I am interested in

Which is funny because those three are not my top three lolololol

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by Xiz

When was the last time Xel was a wolf? I don't think I have played with him as one.

the most tiring thing about you peoples obsession with meta-whoring is that you never go fucking check the archives (which are really easy to sort through, jesus)
http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...d.php?t=137839

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

Can you point out where he drew attention to himself before I drew attention to him?

psychoangel i want to know the answer to this question

[Vendetta21]

alright we're coming into day-end crunchtime and omega is flying in tonight so i'm going to lay out my cards on the table because i don't have time for dogfighting (even though its like my favorite thing to do)

day 1 is always bad and you always have little to work with so you're going with vague impressions. on day 1 though, it's always my preference to lynch the thing that has the wolfiest surface value and not spend extra effort really defending people's wolfy behaviors based on gut feelings, etc. people tend to spend more time worrying about being wrong on day 1 then they do worrying about being right, and i get that day 1 smacks you in the face when your gutreads are wrong but taciturn plays give taciturn results.

so i've cycled through some suspicions but the two i think are noteworthy are xelnya and psychoangel. probably leaning more towards psychoangel at the moment but we will see how things progress.

so for xelnya what i thought was suspicious was the following

V is being a lot different from last game which has me a little weary.

xelnya said this. I was like "okay. maybe i am, i guess it depends on how you look at it. i think i'm playing the exact damn same." so i tried to goad a response from him by focusing on his use of the words "a lot" which is strong language for a statement that has only got him "a little weary."

If it is a lot different can you articulate what is different? I feel a significant difference is the type you can easily articulate whereas a subtle difference is not, and if you want to call something suspicious it behooves you to be as specific as you can. The key word is you say I am being "a lot" different. Mostly I think this is the sort of vague bullshit that has nothing specific that, at this juncture, has already been stated a couple times.

It's almost like it's an extremely safe thing to say at this particular point in the game after many others have said it. Would you agree?

This is what I say. I was waiting for a response to this, I wanted to know what xelnya perceived as different. Clarifying this should have been easy considering the strong language used here. Am I being more aggressive, inquisitive? Is it simply a misread because of having a different name and avatar?

Then I also say this

Manti is hardly a meta-slut. I think you don't understand the "metas" of players well enough to make jokes with that level of hyperbole and colorful language.

which XelNya responds to within an hour, jokingly. my statement wasn't a joke. i was calling xelnya an idiot for having a "meta-read" of a player that i've played with for like 4-5 years that is wholly inaccurate.

the thing that interested me, though, was that xelnya's read on me changed

V - I don't know how to read you at all yet. You seem more town though because based long post.

Changing a read while not addressing your previous read. Okay. That's kinda fishy. "I got called out for holding opinion X so instead I'm going to hold opinion Y." It's important to note that these are at best wishy-washy reads that aren't going to be acted upon at all by anyone, so the change of tune without addressing the previous question seemed like a way to brush the question under the table. I have no idea why you would want to brush that question under the table since it isn't loaded unless you were making shit up and it would be really easy to just make more shit up, but doing so is itself inherently wolfy because it shows intention to mislead.

Anyways, this struck my nerve so I decided I would naked vote Xelnya. This was partly to observe reactions from people who had bitched about naked voting, but after I did it I realized that everyone just wanted to see what was going to happen as a result of the vote. Maybe I have an air of showmanship.

The thing though is that I publicly acknowledged the people I had noticed viewing and not responding

It's the sheer length of the silence and the number of people who rotate through viewing the current edge of discussion that interests me most. Seen a lot of charu, dbp, and xelnya over the last five hours.

And xelnya tacitly agreed that he had in fact been viewing and not responding:

So, what?

And responding with gifs, even. A way of saying "I don't give a shit what you think." I feel like proper responses as a human are things like "Why do you think I am a wolf?" or "Are you going to explain your vote?" Viewing for that long and finally coming to the conclusion to display indifference shows that the player is mulling over the accusation. It shows a difference between what the player's actions suggest their intention is and what their words say they are. That's pretty wolfy.

---

Anyways the other thing I thought was wolfy though was psychoangel's half-assed attempt to jump on xelnya, mostly because of her choice of reasoning. Let's review it briefly. Here is a chronological list of things stated about xelnya from the time he was voted to the time psycho voted (a breadth of ~30 posts)

me

i think you're a wolf

cedolad

Same image from the last Matrix6 game where he was a wolf. He also posted it elsewhere (sign-ups are post game), where he said he post it if he were a wolf (can't fucking find it).

Check.

charu

Hey, are you just doing this because you are indeed a wolf? Is your defense putting gifs already pre-made a way so you don't have to say much of anything?

and then we have psychoangel's vote

Xelnya

This whole gif thing just seems like a "if I'm drawing attention to myself they wont think I'm wolf, they'll think typical middie"

So it's very clear that attention has already been drawn to XelNya, but what's important to me is that it's very clear that attention has indicated to many people that Xelnya is wolfish.

Psychoangel's reading of this means that it's possible to slip a vote in UTR while people are more focused on XelNya and it shouldn't be too hard to get away with it. And if you're going to lynch a human getting in on vote 3 is a good place to be.

But it's the read of XelNya's behavior of "if I'm drawing attention to myself" because of gifs. That is chronologically out of order. XelNya had attention on himself well before the gifs were posted, so that reading of XelNya's intentions is inaccurate. There is no way that is the way XelNya is intending to play, and I don't think there's a way to misinterpret that given the sequence of events.

So I ask the basic question

Wasn't attention clearly already drawn to XelNya?

and I got the nefarious double-down

Yes he's drawing attention to himself, as I said seems like a way to make people think it's just typical middie. A general mindset I've seen is that a wolf wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves but that's why I think he would do it.
There's no real pressure on anyone with the votes being spread out. Now with mine there's 3 if I'm not mistaken. That turns up the pressure a little bit.

I'm going to commit to my reasoning AGAIN even though the basic premise that I used to support my reasoning in the first place was wrong. I'm going to ignore causality in an attempt to appear consistent.

I was really trying to fish for a GOTCHA! with my last post but I'm running out of time here so that's what I have. If she had double'd down again it would have shown a continuity error in her logic if she selected something before the gifs post to support her reasoning. Sometimes I spam hadouken to try to win.

From a broader abstract perspective psycho seems more wolfy to xelnya than me because psycho is jumping on to what is clearly a strong bandwagon with weak reasoning at an opportunistic time but also because there has been weak or indirect defenses of psychoangel as well. Those are the sorts of spices and seasonings that lead to a tastier lynch.

psycho

i'll check in from time to time but i don't think i can commit to big plays or turnarounds anymore this phase so this is generally what i got up my sleeve

[Vendetta21]

Oh and I think with an IC the chance of serial killer is like 65-70% because a normal distribution of roles will have a higher chance of having serial killer. The statistics would be really really hard to suss out but it seems evident when you look at the roles and think about it, and so when DBP said A Thing (mentioned serial killers in his first post in what i think is his first C9++) I made that serial killer claim because I thought DBP might be a serial killer given my priors and he responded as I would have expected so take that as you will. I think it gives a slight lean on the read towards purple from green, but serial killers are never first-lynch material though because they are usually focused on hitting wolves before they start hitting humans.

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

Can you point out where he drew attention to himself before I drew attention to him?

I don't see why this makes a difference in what I said. He's drawing more attention to himself, who cares if it was provoked by you prodding him? It could be him trying to make us think no wolf would act like that, especially if people are paying attention to him.

I've seen him view the thread a few times since though and hasn't said a word now. So perhaps he's changing it up now. I'm not dead set on anyone as of right now, I wanted a reaction from him and haven't gotten one.

[Gradiant]

Xelnya does the same shit every game, so thats not really indicative of his role. Good point about psychoangel though, i completely missed her slip in vote. Not sure about her right now, but i could go for her, blind, or xiz right now.

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

I'm going to keep my vote on psychoangel. I agree with most of what V said about her, and I'd also add on that she accused midi of being a wolf because he tried to draw attention to himself, which is something that she says a wolf wouldn't typically do, when she herself has taken a fairly passive role, something that her line of reasoning implies is typical wolf behavior. If she thinks that wolves generally take passive roles, and she's taking a passive role, then perhaps she is a wolf as well.

Seriously dude? I said it's something I could see him doing because of his personality. If you looked back at my game as a wolf you'd see I was furthest from passive btw.

I also didn't say that a wolf wouldn't typically do it I said:

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

A general mindset I've seen is that a wolf wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves but that's why I think he would do it.

It is something I've seen said in game after game out of others.

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by Gradiant

Xelnya does the same shit every game, so thats not really indicative of his role. Good point about psychoangel though, i completely missed her slip in vote. Not sure about her right now, but i could go for her, blind, or xiz right now.

Then I guess I've never been in a game with him because I don't recall being in a game where gifs were constantly being posted.

[Gradiant]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

I'm going to keep my vote on psychoangel. I agree with most of what V said about her, and I'd also add on that she accused midi of being a wolf because he tried to draw attention to himself, which is something that she says a wolf wouldn't typically do, when she herself has taken a fairly passive role, something that her line of reasoning implies is typical wolf behavior. If she thinks that wolves generally take passive roles, and she's taking a passive role, then perhaps she is a wolf as well.

I think i could see this point as well. If she was more aggressive, leading, and controlling, players would make the connection between this and how she played n the united nations game as a wolf. She'd want to change her playstyle.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

I think that this could be dangerous thinking when there's so many alternative possibilities when it says that somebody is "viewing" the thread, even when taken in conjunction with the "no one thing is a wolf tell, make a narrative out of multiple" point you made. Otherwise I think the disconnect between what he says/how he says it and what he does is a really good point that I agree with.

It was significant because XelNya acknowledged that he was viewing the thread, otherwise it would have been too speculative to note.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Then I guess I've never been in a game with him because I don't recall being in a game where gifs were constantly being posted.

Like he does in his most recent wolf game you are telling us to look at and that I posted a link to?

[Gradiant]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Then I guess I've never been in a game with him because I don't recall being in a game where gifs were constantly being posted.

You would know if you were, its obnoxious

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

Adding onto this, not saying that he's a wolf but V has said in the past that he feels more confident as a wolf when he's in the spotlight. I could see midi being the same way based on his personality.

On top of everything you quoted and agreed with me about middie but then want to attack me for it. You've been pretty all over the place this game.

Popadop

Going with you for now