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Old 08-26-2018, 07:56 PM   #2811
Precarious
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Join Date: Mar 2014
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

If we No Lynch today, we gain no additional flip information. Everyone's suspicions stay the same.

In the night, there will be zero to two night kills. (Theoretically, both wolf and SK--assuming the latter exists--could target a Hiding Tps, or the SK could while the wolf targets an SK still wearing a vest. Actually, that raises a further complication--it's possible the wolf knows who the SK is if they previously attacked someone who isn't Tps and the attack failed). Assuming the SK scenario, that could leave us with a bunch of scenarios, but the presumable worst case would be 3:1:1.

N.B. I would strongly argue against my Hide strategy if we NL today, since there's no longer a risk of a 2:1:1 if we go into the night 5:1:1.

3:1:1 is uncomfortable. We would presumably be down to one remaining known town player, with two unknown town players, the wolf, and the SK. We would have made no progress on the game state from where we are now, and I feel like I'd be a probable lynch target still. Obviously 3:1:1 is a worst case scenario in this setting, but a mislynch at 3:1:1 puts us at 2:1:1 going into the night, which resembles the 2:1:1 + NL the next day strategy.

Basically, NL today kind of just punts the issue a couple rl days down the road, while giving the bad guys a slightly larger share of the voting pool.
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