[Celirra]

We are currently at 7. Likely 5/1/1.
let me evaluate two scenarios, with their subscenarios:



Lynch this phase

Proper lynch
The absolute best case scenario. 5/1/0 (or 5/0/1, either way) after vote, down to 4/0/1 (ignoring fringe case of tps surviving with hiding). This is great! Hurray! Theoretically for me I have a 50% chance of this working regardless of reads, indeed.


Mislynch
The absolute worst case scenario. 4/1/1 after vote, down to fourpossibilities after night kills (tps pls dont hide if this happens):

4/0/0: Wow this is great, but super unlikely I think.
3/1/0: Well hey, technically the same as the proper lynch route, but still not most likely
2/1/1: This sucks, we lose unless we get lucky.
3/1/1: Vote stacking, lucky us!

Out of these options, #3 and #4 are the most likely. #4 is not gg, but #3 is; it would effectively be another coin flip and I dont like relying on double coin flips.


Sleep this phase

We would be 5/1/1 with all assumptions right now. That leads to all the end results above, but with a +1 to the town count. That sounds pretty nice! That +1 would eliminate the double coinflip scenario from being potentially lethal.


And I don't think it would detriment us at all either. We would still have the same number of lynches at our disposal if we sleep on average, but it is a much safer bet as well due to the lack of the lethal outcome possibility.


I don't know why you want to risk a loss when we don't have to.