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Old 08-25-2018, 09:57 PM   #2733
Precarious
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Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

Quote:
Originally Posted by inDheart View Post
prec did you write that post before tps claimed his actions
Yes. It doesn't change my analysis much though--actually, it reinforces a couple ideas. As I see has been pointed out, it completely clears Sun and Cel in all scenarios.

If a Hider hides behind scum or SK, they die. Tps is either scum or a hider; if he's a wolf, then he's the only wolf (in which case Sun and Cel, like everyone else, must be town). If he's not a wolf, then he's telling the truth (he mechanically can't be an SK), in which case he did hide behind Sun and Cel, in which case his continued survival clears them.

That leaves a pool of only four players that must contain both the wolf and the SK. (From my perspective, that pool is three, but whatever).


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If we lynch correctly, that leaves one remaining anti-town player (as far as I can tell it wouldn't really matter if it's the wolf or the SK). Assuming a nightkill on a confirmed player, that would leave tomorrow at 4:1 with two players still confirmed, meaning there would be a pool of three players that must contain a wolf/SK. A mislynch there would take it to 3:1, and an NK to 2:1. At that point we would be down to one confirmed player, who would be the tiebreaker as the remaining town and anti-town inevitably accuse each other.

If we mislynch today, things get fairly confusing. We would enter the night at 4:1:1, with three confirmed (well, two, but for the purpose of this analysis Tps can be considered confirmed) town, and there's a decent chance the wolf and SK both target a confirmed townie. But, it's possible their kills overlap, or one or both chooses to take a shot in the dark at the other, given how volatile the next day looks.

Worst case scenario, we go into tomorrow at 2:1:1, with one confirmed player remaining. And...I just realized that's more dire than I initially thought, since 1:1:1 is apparently a three way loss, and 2:1 just turns into a 1:1 loss by the next day. But I think I see a possibility for brinkmanship here...
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