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Old 08-26-2018, 04:22 PM   #2771
the sun fan
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Age: 26
Posts: 370
Default Re: TWG CLXXX - OuO what's this? [Game Thread]

yes, the thing is
you don't discard reads

blind is never a wolf and tbh I'll go as far as to say that he's never the SK either, something that I think you agree with, so lets discard him
funny is pretty much never a wolf imo (though she can be SK, I don't think its likely)

so, as long as we lynch Prec or inD, I'm a happy boy

of course it requires me to be right about my reads but that's what this whole fuckin TWG thing is about

having good reads as town and convincing others that your reads are right (equally as important is knowing when you're wrong and when other people have good cases for good reasons etc)

the chance of not hitting one of those two scum today (again, assuming Tps is telling the truth) is just so minuscule to me.

As you have pointed out, we have the same number of lynches on average (I haven't done the math and it sounds icky so I'll just assume you're right). The reason why you still want to lynch is because we could lose the average number of lynches, which is far more important than anything else. Yes, we can be put into a horrible position, one that I'll ever go so far as to call hopeless even though there is hope in it for the sake of argument.

But is so unlikely that I can't see how its worth potentially losing a lynch, and almost certainly losing 2 towns, for the sake of not losing the game because it puts us in a situation where, guess what, we're in a pretty bad position tomorrow almost all of the time.

You're evaluating each possibility equally.

The wolf is (most likely, its really up to them based on the information they posess etc etc but they """""mechanically""""" probably find themself in a situation where the 2-1-1 split is not favored for them) NOT going to try and shoot the SK. They are going to shoot one of you or me.
The Sk is NOT going to try and shoot the wolf. They are going to shoot you or me because they WANT to be in the 2-1-1 split because it gives them the best chance of winning (most likely).

The possibilities are not equal. Town will be severely behind if we sleep; scum WANT to trigger the worst possible scenario for town, and its incredibly easy for them to do that since they know that both you and I are exactly VT and that's the kind of player they want to shoot.

So its a 50/50 that they shoot the same one between us, lets say. 3/1/0 Is the same as lynching properly, SO WHY NOT TRY AND LYNCH PROPERLY WHEN ITS NEVER BEEN EASIER IN THE WHOLE GAME. Saves us having to coinflip between a playable but pretty silly 3-1-0/3-0-1 and an absolutely terrible 2-1-1.
TWG Stats:

FFR is a pretty good place somehow.
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