[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by leetic

Alright, here is why I feel that Zenith is the most likely wolf here.

Contention 1: The Raeko vote

At EoD, wagons were 2-2, with me and MML on Raeko and Raeko and Haze on me. Zenith had the deciding vote here, and went for Raeko. Why? Zenith had me as a paranoia suspicion while having Raeko as solid town and no posts in their progression suggesting that they were reconsidering their read of that slot. As town, they should have voted me, but why not? Consider that Raeko had Zenith as a top wolfread for quite a while, being interested in pushing a Zenith lynch as late as 20 minutes before EoD. Any F3 where Raeko is still alive would be a very difficult position for Zenith to be in, whereas they could expect me and Haze to crossvote based on EoD. There's also the fact that they waited until the last minute to vote, which can be interpreted in a few ways. It could be inertia from sites that don't have hammers, not wanting to get any shit for hammering early, or carefully weighing which vote was better strategically. Still, the fact that they didn't post any reasons why they ultimately were leaning towards or went with a Raeko vote over a vote on me suggests against this being someone trying to solve who's the more likely wolf.

Contention 2: Every dead villager is pointing in Zenith's direction
XelNya - Expressed interest in voting Zenith because "consensus", and tried to switch to voting Zenith at the end but failed because of the hammer
roundbox - Zenith was the target they were pursuing most fervently
Raeko - As mentioned before, was pushing Zenith for a large percentage of D2 and D1 as well
MML - Explicitly townread both me and Haze, Raeko/Zenith was his exact PoE at EoD

Compare to the people who are still alive:
Myself - Did push Zenith for a good portion of D2, but also played devil's advocate to them in many ways
Haze - Pushed Zenith a bit D1, but retracted that push and never really saw them as a priority since

It's ultimately a pretty comfortable position for Zenith at F3, all things considered. While this isn't fully condemning on its own, when combined with the other evidence it does make you question why they're still alive.

Contention 3: Performativity
When they went into D2, they made a huge stink about how the D1 lynch was terrible and that roundbox was a bad kill. This alone is a red flag, as town isn't typically this performative and Zenith wasn't trying to channel it anywhere productive. When I actually pressed them on their thoughts on the roundbox kill, it's clear that they haven't actually put any thought into it. The only arguments about what they would hope to accomplish as wolf by leaving roundbox alive that made sense were the ones they blatantly lifted from me. It's clear that this wasn't a genuine towny thought and was likely more to deflect from making the kill and also cover up that roundbox had suspected them. Their response to me today is more of the same, acting very certain about why I was suspecting them (and being wrong) and also whinging about me being deepwolf, when the very reason I am still alive is becuase they voted their "townread" over me (the "deepwolf" terminology over "SK" was also lifted from me btw). It all feels very fake and deflective.

Bonus: SBPC

Not actually a part of my argument, but it would be funny if this was the case for basically the entire game.

Let's take a look at a couple of potential counterarguments to this case:

Counterargument 1: They're bold
There are a few problems with this argument at this stage in the game. Yes, some of their pushes like on me D1 and Haze D2 were a little bit bold. However, Haze made some bold moves to, like the tunnel on me D2. Some wolves do win by tunneling and forcing 1v1s with townies, but it is a move that requires risk, so it's not clear that Zenith even wins out on the "boldness" argument. Secondly, the Raeko vote shows when push comes to shove, their convictions don't seem to be super important. Thirdly, one area where Zenith wasn't bold was when voting: they voted someone who hadn't posted yet on D1 then quickly unvoted and never voted that day again, while being the last to vote D2 and waiting until the very last minute to do so. This isn't the behavior of someone too bold to be a wolf.

Counterargument 2: Noob town
Firstly, the Raeko vote was not a noob town move, noob town couldn't resist the temptation to get rid of one of their paranoia suspicions in that scenario. Secondly, this excuse increasingly ceases to be meaningful as the game goes on, a lot of wolfy plays can look "noob town" on the surface so that can't be a meaningful reason to townread this late in the game. Ultimately, it fails to outweigh all the other evidence.

Here's the point in the post where I would vote Zenith if there wasn't a hammer. Still, probably best to wait for Zenith's rebuttal and look at Haze a little bit. Haze hasn't been the best at towntelling, but the game just makes much more sense if Zenith is the wolf.

1) I've seen your name thrown around with the word "inconsistency" and I'll start by pointing out this one: Raeko never once said I was a red lean or thought I was wolfing. Raeko's vote towards me at EoD is, and I quote here,

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

ok guys well anyways I wanted to hear from Zenith but I dunno how much longer we can wait

Zenith tho, is that still the consensus we can all agree on the most or?

Her stance on me has always been a consensus-appealed vote and not one of her own thoughts.

2) This is the only thing I think that I would struggle and argue against, but I can say a few things. Roundbox being locked on sights towards me lost its weight the longer we went. I think d2 interactions yields far more actual information that is tangible and usable than d1 interactions do mainly because d1 wasn't predominantly game solving, it was interactions and stirring the pot. Give us more reasoning behind why you're giving him so much credit, cause his reason behind voting me to begin with was always "people are talking more than Zenith, so I'm okay hitting this slot right now".

Originally Posted by XelNya

I'm just gonna state I would intend to vote zenith because consensus, and information rather than a personal "scum" read

but would otherwise lazy vote lar

Originally Posted by roundbox

zenith
yolo

Originally Posted by roundbox

unvote
looks like I'm voting xel
this feels so lame though

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I'm going back to Zenith

I think Zenith->Raeko win this because Leetic feels town and I think Haze is just bullheaded town

At least that is more likely then Zenith or Raeko. I think Raeko especially is just making bad faith arguments right now

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Raeko

Originally Posted by leetic

Raeko. It just feels like they've been taking advantage of the conflict without really doing their part to push the game forward. Sway me if you can

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Naw I'm with ya

3) Performative behavior is a thing that only you have made a focus in this game and frankly I haven't seen many people use it as any basis behind their deduction so seeing it is kind of new to me, however I think it's by far the weakest reason you can use here because anyone can invoke or simulate emotion, even display it the same way I did about the way d1 EoD went and it will always be NAI.

Regarding NKA, I came out swinging by saying it was not something we should have spent our time even discussing, and frankly it was something you were doing to waste towns time cause every time it was brought up by you it would take someone away from actual game solving. Getting into an argument about if I even said SK or not, or wrongfully used the term was important to the game, or solving it?