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Old 02-26-2016, 02:38 AM   #2402
Hakulyte
the Haku
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Age: 35
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Default Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by rzr View Post
scum is done, only the SK remains after todays lynch
What? How?

Let me simulate how not even close I am from a solve on this for you:

Quote:
Originally Posted by botchi246 View Post
Guys im the psychic. There are three wolves left. Take off votes
Possibility #1:

Assume botchi is right. This would mean that only 1 wolf died in (Roundbox + XelNya + helphelp11 + Tokzic(clearly Town because killed by Mafia but whatever))
Note: I don't even want to try to solve this without botchi's claim. If you know even without that as a basis, be my guest.
I know there's a theory about "roundbox or helphelp11" being a Wolf, but I believe it wasn't botchi who started it therefore it becomes invalid for this logic.

So, Wolf #1 = Roundbox or XelNya or helphelp11 confirmed. (it doesn't matter who it is)

Other stuff:
botchi246 died N2 ("theorically" Town because assuming he's Psychic for this logic.)

Very Important: These 2 players died after Botchi could check how many wolves are alive. This mean that we cannot know their alignment from Botchi.

Sinistrosuede died N2 (modkilled) remain unknown.
YoshL died N2 @ remain unknown.

"Most likely" Case 1: DFR's Lynch at the end of Day 2.

We had a KitB that hit DFR which was a 50/50 coin flip with Red Blaster.

Note that rzr said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by rzr View Post
scum is done, only the SK remains after todays lynch
After this "Random Event", therefore the KitB "luck" part here is irrelevant and this is auto-clearing Red Blaster for reasons that I don't understand myself. (yay!)

rzr's relevant posts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by rzr View Post
err I'm okay with both these atm (refering to Red Blaster and DFR)
Quote:
Originally Posted by rzr View Post
kill dfr at least red is trying
I see hesitation here, but he did want to kill DFR after all so, by his actions, I would tend to believe that this was his first Wolf "hit": (Hypothetical Wolf #2 DFR) rzr confirm this and give more explanation if you can.

Here's a few potential scenarios as to why he could have been hesitating:

A) He doesn't know who's the wolf (if there's one!) Wait- that's impossible because he knows apparently.
B) He's the Cop and seered the supposedly wolf but doesn't want to out himself after seeing me and botchi out as Medic/Psychic. (Think about it, 3 PRs outing themselves in a row, that would certainly look bad.)
C) He has plenty of proof after (most likely DFR) and is confident he's wolf.
D) He doesn't really care because neither of them are wolves. (Seered Sinistrosuede?)

There's probably other possibilities, but I just wanted to give some examples. Note that Wolf #2 could also be Sinistrosuede or/and YoshL.

That's making me come to the conclusion that "for some reason" there's 2 wolves in DFR/Sinistrosuede/YoshL. I'd say DFR is probably one, but Sinistrosuede with nearly no post vs YoshL who was very active and posted a lot of good content/calls/intents etc. leaves me confused. I want to assume there's a seer here or some incredible read that I missed. Like, even if I wanted to accuse YoshL, there's no way, absolutely no way that it's a 100% "this is a Wolf" call. So, there's missing information here.

I'm going to skip to potential Wolf #4 and let him answer about #2/#3.

That would obviously be DBP from my pov. I'm not going to bother because let's be honest, I'm biased from being in a Haku vs DBP situation.

tl;dr

Wolf Team could be:

Roundbox or helphelp11 or XelNya/DFR(Not Confirmed from my pov)/Sinistrosuede or YoshL/DBP or (Sinistrosuede/YoshL/???)
??? = DBP could be SK therefore there's 1 wolf left who could be pretty much anyone.

......

So, conclusion to all of this? We wait for rzr because I'm not even close. <___<"

Possibility #2:

rzr is lying. I have no clue why. I think I love this theory, it sounds a lot more likely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TWG King Dedede View Post
Oh, I forgot Red Blaster.

Didn't like the way he voted in post 248.
I agree, but his amount of content is so small that I wouldn't seriously accuse him of anything yet. He also did say "I'm human" right before the KitB to clear himself out in case he does die. I think he's Town for that.

Why I'm posting all of this?

Also, salty reminder that I work Friday/Saturday/Sunday and that I'll be less active this phase. Honestly, even if I was less active Day 1, I was a lot more productive that day than Day 2. I wouldn't be too worried if I was you guys. It just means I'll invest less time behind my posts so, it should mean less chaos and more "back to normal" stuff.
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