[Precarious]

Originally Posted by inDheart

i don't think the setup is necessarily wolf-sided given that you missed the seer twice in a row. leaving things to random chance, you had as much a chance of hitting juckter as he did seering you in that state of the game, and had random.org been a fairer beast (either that or you made a better vote) you would still have had the numbers advantage and been in lylo instead at the start of the last day. even if juckter gets his red check, you just go to f3 with no cop. there's still a game there. this particular game was, in a few ways, outside normal operating parameters, and that doesn't signal balance issues on its own

also no wolf deaths means lylo on the third day, not fourth (cf. turbo 4), and random chance would dictate seer getting zero red checks. but RNG isn't a good strategy for this game.

You're right about the three days vs. four; I accidentally started mentally from nine town rather than nine players. And to be fair that does make a big, big difference in how I see this.

Still, the thing about the equal chances is that under the current format, the seer can still provide valuable information even if killed immediately, since role flips at death and (like everyone else) the seer would have posted a D1 result. A single green read is meaningful in a scenario where (assuming a wolf wasn't lynched on D1, which would obviously be a huge boon for town anyway) there would be only 7 people (and 2 of those are wolves). The consequences of letting the seer survive even one day in the current format was borne out here, as things got very crowded structurally. But assume Juckter had been killed N2 and hadn't received a red read N1. Two town would be exonerated immediately (yes, there's the possibility that one or both of the green reads died previously), which would be enormously useful in a 3:2 setting. Two confirmed town would mean two wolves in a pool of three remaining players.

And to be fair, at the same time, in a 3:2 setting, it would probably be time for a wolf to commit to hard fakeclaiming/countering the actual seer (assuming the seer is alive). So I can see how it could play out differently, but I feel the pre-game read does lean town.