[Wineandbread]

Originally Posted by Prophylaxis

Catching up and rereading, but to be honest, the Witch vig flip kind of destroyed my motivation to play the game since I think there is a solid chance we lose the game now unless we lynch scum right after the other.

It's just. I have NO IDEA who the scum are. There are still three wolves alive and aside from Xel no one stands out to me as explicitly wolfy.

Like, given that Witch flipped town and AA flipped town, I don't think my view of the gamestate is terribly off, but we have had NO WOLF FLIPS SO FAR and I /need/ those in order to actually scumhunt well. This is terribly frustrating because, wagon analysis is shot, and interaction analysis is shot - there goes 2/3rds of my way to analyze the gamestate, leaving only behavioral analysis which I am not very good at.

Blegh.

Time to roll the dice yolo
In all seriousness, at this point in the game I think it is better to have confidence in a read and be wrong than show uncertainty. So to that point, do you think Xel is the best lynch today?

Do you think Xel/Shado could be partners? I know you are mostly reading Shado as town, but just humor me.

Originally Posted by thesunfan

I get where you're coming from, and the short and serious answer is that Hakulyte is the exception to a lot of rules in my book

ook

Originally Posted by Prophylaxis

4 -- Witch of Certainty -- MixMasterLar (36), TWG Jade Harley (84), AragakiAyase (185), ShadoWolfe (175)
3 -- ShadoWolfe -- thesunfan (142), XelNya (28), Wineandbread (15)
2 -- XelNya -- Prophylaxis (41), Witch of Certainty (65)
1 -- unvote -- Hakulyte (199)

shado (4) - sunfan, aa, xel, wab
xel (3) - proph, shado, woc
woc (2) - mml, jade
unvote - haku

4 -- DaBackpack -- roundbox (67), thesunfan (260), XelNya (94), AragakiAyase (263)
3 -- Witch of Certainty -- TWG Jade Harley (77), mellonxcollie (76), Hakulyte (272)
2 -- Prophylaxis -- Charu (313), ShadoWolfe (248)
2 -- TWG Jade Harley -- Prophylaxis (75), Witch of Certainty (94)
1 -- thesunfan -- MixMasterLar (131)
1 -- Charu -- DaBackpack (128)

4 -- thesunfan -- AragakiAyase (209), Charu (234), Hakulyte (240), Prophylaxis (47)
1 -- mellonxcollie -- ShadoWolfe (217)
1 -- XelNya -- TWG Jade Harley (53)
1 -- Charu -- DaBackpack (128)
1 -- DaBackpack -- thesunfan (171)
3 -- unvote -- Witch of Certainty (68), MixMasterLar (123), XelNya (86)
2 -- not voting -- mellonxcollie (61), roundbox (44)

4 -- TWG Jade Harley -- MixMasterLar (67), Charu (147), AragakiAyase (44), Prophylaxis (14)
1 -- XelNya -- thesunfan (50)
1 -- Prophylaxis -- ShadoWolfe (79)
1 -- Hakulyte -- Hakulyte (56)
6 -- not voting -- DaBackpack (77), mellonxcollie (9), roundbox (33), TWG Jade Harley (18), Witch of Certainty (19), XelNya (22)

Fixed the remaining colors
ofc I'd take your magenta for my name instead but let's just go with this for now

Originally Posted by Prophylaxis

Questions I am asking myself:

1. Is there scum on the Witch wagon Yesterday? If so, who is it? What about Shado's alignment?

2. We /know/ for a fact that EoD1 was basically a feasting ground for the wolves - town/town/town wagons. Therefore, scum in {roundbox (67), thesunfan (260), XelNya, TWG Jade Harley (77), Hakulyte (272)} is /incredibly/ likely. Just, who is town in that grouping and who is scum?

3. Haku is either the scum on the sunfan wagon or the sunfan wagon is composed of all townies, which maybe makes sunfan scum?

3. Ditto with Jade. MML is either scum or wagon is composed of all townies?

Food for thought here. I have never tried wagon analysis on this site so I have no idea how good it is, but meh.

I'm kind of at {Xel/Jade/????} here solely because Jade looks like scum from wagon analysis.

1. I think Shado is on there (it was entirely too easy after the things AA said for most people to vote witch here I think) However, if you recall Shado pushed for Xel at eod.

2. This isn't really helpful as you're only leaving out two names from that list. If you boil your statement down to "there is at least one scum in these 5 names" you are automatically correct by maths. I strongly encourage you to consider me town if it helps simplify your analysis.

3. Can I hear your reasoning behind why you think an all-town wagon makes a person more scum-like? Also you seemed to prefer Jade as scum rather than MML, is this correct?

Probably won't be around for the rest of the day
Btw all this talk about witch has made Heart of Witch stuck in my head, so thanks for that