[ShadoWolfe]

Pretty sure the last wolf is DBP.
He had a mediocre D0 that almost everyone townread him on, a semi-decent D1, and then he went on a really deep Freezin tunnel that eventually ended with a FG bus (after soft-defending her most of the day). He had a few posts that looked like they were setting me up for his vote today, and reads pretty scummy in late D1 especially.

Full DBP analysis:

DBP D0:

So, after his initial shitposts about snacks, planes, and eating YoshL, DBP really starts playing three hours 2.5 hours before EoD D0.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I actually kind of like this from YoshL

"Forever hating d0 tier" feels like an appeal to emotion, and tallying activity measures contributes really nothing w/r/t alignment at this point in the game, but feels like a way to "say something "relevant""

maybe I'm ascribing my own thought process on to yoshl but it feels like a good vote to me

but I'm not moving my vote from YoshL bc he's a wolf

His very first serious post of the game is a half-shitposty support of YoshL's scumread of Freezin. He had voted YoshL earlier, so the apparent contradiction is a joke, but he makes a legitimate point about Freezin's list.

A few minutes later, he soft-defends Freezin, saying he likes that Freezin asked people to stop hating on his list because it signifies some kind of personal investment.
This is noteworthy only because Freezin died that nightphase and DBP spent much of the next day analyzing that same death.
Tone for the next hour is relatively shitposty considering EoD D0

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

"hey yoshl what do you think of dbp"

yoshl votes dbp

"cool" voes dbp

Calls out AA, seems natural still because he's the one being voted.
Stops posting after that for awhile, until AA says he's frozen. He respond with a hilarious video that ironically broke the ice.

First actual response to being called out as frozen:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I think AA mentioned that his vote served as pressure, not as a lynch vote

I thought it was amusing but I don't think it's scummy

Implying he felt no pressure because AA said he voted for pressure, then asks AA if his posts didn't feel genuine to him.

At this point, I'd have said "no, but there's no scumhunting in them, either"

He mentions he's not capable of reading Charu and hopes others can, finally responds to AA's push "the thing holding me back about AA is that the vote is so fucking stupid if he's a wolf trying to mislynch me that I can't imagine that's what's actually happening here

esp from AA"

--nothing major from DBP so far--

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I kinda like Freezin for his reaction to the tier-list thing he made earlier --- the list itself was garbage (sorry) but it seems to come from a place of towniness --- trying to instigate conversation and then being offended for being PUNISHED BY OTHERS for trying to solve the game

an eventual reread will determine if it's legitimate emotion or if he's feigning offense, but I'm leaning the former for now

Defends Freezin and rereads him as town (despite his earlier suspicion) and mentions an intention of an eventual reread, which could be important, but I don't want to tinfoil here.

Calls out DFR for being obsessed with Freezin, then mentions he ISO'd DFR "there's a lot of question-asking/prodding, and then some defenses of other players, but not a whole lot of finding scums (outside of freezin)"

more shitposts

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

freezin is town, yoshl is town, rapta was town until he sheep voted me and now he's ???, dfr is TBD

^ first "reads" of the day, noting for future reference.

Interestingly, YoshL calls him out for "constantly straying off to the side, rather than offering the hyperfocus scumhunter that town dbp usually is that i think i'm set"
DBP responds by asking if YoshL has read his earlier posts (which at this point seem like they were truly constantly straying off to the side)

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

@Charu my read comes from the emotion of being told his efforts are shit which is something I can relate to as town

^Regarding Freezin

[b]AA says "I don't like giving her a pass but I think she can be lynched tomorrow barring something good", DFR responds with

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

fg should be off the table today

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

In dfr's defense here, when you are voted, the supposition is that you can sway people's opinions with argument and evidence, especially in early-game when things are more flexible

I don't see it as an explicit appeal to AA

Seems town in retrospect.

Says AA is forcing a dichotomy

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar View Post
Do not lynch inactives day1 please

Soft-defends FG.
and again:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I still think lynching fg is a bad idea since it puts us nearly back at square 1 tomorrow if she's town

Then ends D0 with "I actually don't know what I want to do here" and a vote on DFR.

DBP D1:

Starts D1 with "Wasn't Charu scumreading freezin?" after Freezin's flip. That's a little suspicious because of how he switches his read of freezin the day before and because it was his instant response to the flip.

Defends Charu on the info lynch thing, noting that he doesn't "see what the utility of voting for you instead of Freezin was if he's a wolf", which is a good point.

Doesn't post for two hours, then "Keijo is the anime of the season".

Doesn't post for 4 more hours then "I don't have a lot to say at the moment"
"the choice seems to be converging to AA vs fg vs T-Force"

^General commentary, not alignment indicative, but it's interesting that AA and T-Force were perfectly capitalized and hyphenated but FG was left lowercase.

Says isos broken for him but he wants to revist freezin and then starts analyzing the kill again.
posts an analysis, then this gem:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

note that Shadow's entire defense of funnygurl this entire game is based on "tonereads"

there is no other player in this game who he supplied tonereads to IIRC

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

realistically the pool is fg / AA

honestly keeping AA alive is going to fuck us down the road unless we nail a wolf today

fg too in a sense

but at the very least I want to try to reason about freezin

more freezin stuff and mentions that AA's the best info kill.

More analysis on Freezin, mentioning that he would be threatening to an inactive (this is good)

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this would be threatening to an inactive



random quote that I think is important



in response to :



this is 90% tinfoil, but shadow leaving freezin off his reads list might be important with the knowledge that freezin flipped vigi



it follows that he woudl shoot at gradiant here, because we encouraged him to look at funny tomorrow ("are you sure leaving her alive until tomorrow is going to be fruitful?")



an analysis of freezin's posts before his death all point at funny

but what's strange here is that funny presumably would have a partner who would vet the kill as well

^This focuses on funny almost exclusively, but then ends weirdly to me. It's kind of incongruent that the last sentence would follow the rest of the post.

This post is the most interesting:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I might be supposing too much here, but I'm trying to reason out the world where fg and X would target the one person who openly threatened to kill inactives

fg would need some level of awareness that freezin was a threat, and on top of that, would need a partner who would agree to kill the biggest threat to fg

all of this is reasonable, but I'm trying to take it one step further by imagining dynamics between the team here

they would have to imagine that fg is a sinking ship, and killing freezin would be some kind of desparation play in order to keep her alive as long as possible

in this kind of world, the wolves would be looking for a zerg/complete victory

after all, they knew that AA would be under major fire because of EoD, so they could guarantee at least one extra phase with a AA mislynch

Which reads like he's talking almost about himself. He "imagines the dynamics", and notes that whoever FGs partner is would have to imagine that fg is a sinking ship.

Then, the very next post (on being prompted by AA for his opinion on wolves):

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

shadow / fg / maybe someone else

^I come up out of nowhere (after people, especially AA, had been vocal of their reads on me, and he begins to push FG harder)

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I feel a little uncomfortable because I'm building a house of cards on thin assumptions, but I seriously don't know how else to reason about Freezin

^reads like he's beginning to realize how much of his logic is based on Freezin, and wants to "hedge" his reads.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

fearkill and "nightkill got randomed because inactivity" both point to FG, but the inactivity hypothesis relies explicitly on ANOTHER inactive person as well, or at least somebody who wasn't awake for the nightkill period

^possible misdirection or setting up foundation for his read of me (for not being present the first half of D0 and because AA was scumreading me for "inactivity")

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

this is the unfortunate reality of the situation, you are objectively the best lynch right now, because if you're town and live until tomorrow it's game over

but if FG is town as well, we almost 100% lose

I'm not sure how to address this really

^here, he's addressing AA, which is seemingly contradictory to his earlier scumreads of "shadow/fg/maybe someone else".
It seems as though he saw AA was a top wagon with FG and wanted to establish a reason for voting him.

He follows up with:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

would it be worthwhile to let both of them live until tomorrow and actually pursue another avenue?

and (after AA says no)

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

it's risky but supplies us with a few affordances

1) it gets us out of this very specific scenario and allows us to put pressure in another direction --- if this is t/t, the wolves are likely complacent atm
2) if AA/FG is w/t, then we get to witness the wolves fight aggressively to safe themselves, forcing them to expose themselves (via activity)

which seems as though he's doing as much as he can to prevent an FG lynch without actually defending her.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I suppose, I just feel like if you are t/t then this game is already over

At this point FG is gaining a lot of heat from T-Force, and I think DBP is beginning to resolve to bus.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I can't read AA now (or ever, really)

I've been strung along by him in games in the past, and while he does seem to be projecting town, it could always be a gambit ("yeah you really should lynch me today" -> WIFOM to save his ass)

which leaves me with fg, and while adopting a nightkill analysis perspective she looks really bad, I don't have that much from her to really feel confident

FG asks "how would *i* strike a blue"?

DBP's response is almost chill-inducingly wifom

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

to be fair, you'd have a partner

this is an hour before EoD now

He says "what if the wolves are shadow and yoshl and we're just heating up our own crucible"
^could be more misdirection

bumps a few dead reads and posts without "attaching judgments"

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

T-Force, aside from funny, who do you have as wolf?

^reads as though he's reconsidering his bus

I question AA's genuine-ness, he says he believes AA but it's near impossible to determine the truth of the statement I referenced.

then (after funny is put in L1):

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

funny, if you're town, now's the time for your parting message

and a little later

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

if fg is wolf, I might look at shadow next

Which seems really ominous and reads as though he's already planning to gun for my lynch, considering AA's push and the pressure on me.

First post this day phase kind of confirms that (in the middle of me and AA scumreading each other):

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

gut is telling me shadow > yoshl wins us the game

in a distant third is charu????

Guys, I think the last wolf is DBP