[Ghost_Medley]

Originally Posted by AragakiAyase

You didn't take into account the individual pack factor though
Minimum T5 makes the odds significantly better.

Then we can change it instead so that (1964!/1961!) is instead (y!/[y-3]!) where y is the number of different cards in all the tiers you can pull from when there is a minimum/maximum tier.

If it's Tier 5 minimum for the Gold Pack, or any cards difficulty 40 or higher, that would instead mean y is 1199 considering that's how many cards are in the 40-99 range.

So the actual expression, if I didn't make any mistakes, is (31!/28!)/(1199!/1196!), which is roughly a 0.00156859488% chance of doing it instead.[/HUGENERD]

EDIT: I found an error in my calculations. The value for y should have been 1199 instead of 1311, so that means that the chances are actually slightly higher than my previous calculations.