Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiz
I want sunfan dead. You have the floor greg.
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If you look at what I've actually been doing this game during the day phases, especially from d2 onwards (inclusive) you can see that I've been trying to help town along as best as I can. This is without mentioning d1, which I think also looks good for me, but maybe you care about a little bit less about that.
I talked about how you can roleblock someone with advanced notice in order to potentially clear/out them, and while you can argue that it doesn't actually work, you can see that it was the mentality of everyone in the game that it would work and it would either clear/out lewdy, or give town a free lynch on lewdy.
I've proposed mechanical plans for today, again, I don't think any of them work, but if you look at those, you should see I am trying to find town's best possible path forward.
I think Xiz shouldn't say who he is roleblocking tonight at all btw, or in any future phases, should he continue to be alive.
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I don't think anyone can point to their reads (aside from you) and say "my reads have been super dope this game." I had nanook, but was wrong on raeko. So I want to talk about this point specifically.
I don't know how many of you know this, but Nanook is a fantastic player (yeah, his play this game sure doesn't fucking show it, I know). He was in last years champ finals on MU with me, and served on this season's jury with me. Exactly
how great he is, I don't rightly know, but you don't make it to finals, through wildcard no less, without being pretty exceptional.
So, to talk more about being right on nanook, but wrong on raeko. I have bused before. I have done it to try and clear myself, and it has worked I think every time? When I bus, I tell myself that I have to win the game off of it, and busing does sincerely cause me disgust. Anyways, my plan as a wolf would be to try to clear myself for killing nanook, and just move forward from there.
I helped kill nanook. I was not the first person to vote him in the phase, but when I voted him at EOD, I believe I was the first on the wagon. If I am a wolf, then xiz/bolth are both town (known at this point). I ignored these wagons, and voted my partner in this world. I tried to recruit Xiz onto it as well, pointing out that he would essentially be killing himself if he stuck on bolth.
My plan, then is to try to clear raeko off of an interaction the next day? She's also probably going down at some point, and then the earliest I can win is in f3 (ok, f4 with some shenanigans). To me, that seems suboptimal. I had just won as scum who lived to parity in Animal Crossing, which is the most recent time I randed mafia on FFR, me busing is going to be on people's minds.
Its just probably not the line I would take, but I know people are probably sick and tired of me using that line in games.
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If you had to ask me why I was scumreading nanook, I think I would struggle to tell you a little bit. There was a moment when I looked at the postcount, and I was surprised that Nanook was in the lead, but didn't think very much of it. It, ultimately, was mostly feeling, but I think if I really had to try to pin down the feeling, it would be that he was using a ton of posts to say absolutely nothing. He... was making a show of him being disinterested. I don't doubt that he was disinterested, and I know him to be very capable as the mafia alignment (though I didn't know his motivation was this linked to how he feels about his partners, assuming he was telling the truth about that). It... had to be a show to a certain degree, I think was my conclusion. There's no way a player like him would spend that many posts talking about how disinterested he is.
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I know people are going to be paranoid of me. This is true regardless of my alignment. I think it makes very little sense for me to kill Nanook, even considering he was doing his impression of a potato, on a team of Nanook/raeko/sunfan
The most recent time I played in another community, this is what happened to me n1. I was shot by the serial killer, shot by the mafia, tracked by town, and jailed by town. I had played dominion with one of the people in the game once over a year ago, other than that, none of them knew me. In the qualifying game last champs season, I was tracked, jailed and roleblocked on n3, all by town, following a phase where I was the deciding vote in killing a mafia. People are naturally paranoid of me/drawn to my style, even when they haven't met me.
I have to be able to fend people off. I'm finding it harder and harder to do so, especially as town. I just won my last scum rand by busing. I'm not going to bus twice in a row, on a strong player (even if he's playing like a potato), because I don't expect it to clear me. I think the only way people are ever going to be cool with me moving forward is if I am mech cleared. And that's just how it is.
I would ask you what more I would need to do in order to be more solidly townread. Did I not need to be wrong on raeko come in to d2? I don't really think that's why people are so worried about me. Sincerely, I do hope someone tells me what I would've needed to do to stop the paranoia on me, because I sure as hell don't know what it would've needed to be.
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I said earlier in this phase that I will accept a lynch on me if people really feel that they need it. The reason I am alright with this is mostly because I claimed vanilla town like a fucking moron at least 20 times. Town is very, very ahead, I think you don't even need me.
I am not the kill that wins the game for town here, however. Don't expect me to be this complacent with my own death in future games, its not too often that town is this far ahead.
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I sincerely believe that the Zenith kill looks very good for me being town. This is all assuming its not a vig shot, of which it would be a reasonable one, but there's probably too many "maybes" involved for there to be a vigi at this point. I think Zenith was killed for being PR read. I can give you a better PR read, mafia, its that Xiz is a pr. You should kill that guy, there's a 50% chance he can block your nightkill (of course, you know if the number is 0% or 100%).
Of all currently living players, I think exactly 0 people would be clearing Zenith at the beginning of this day phase (idk maybe he'd clear himself during, he's never been the best at that though). That kill, maybe even if Zenith was a PR, was likely a mistake considering Xiz is a threat to the mafia moving forward, and was out in the open. Role Cop could potentially change this, I guess, but then town's definitely in a really great position considering Xiz can block the nightkill moving forward.
I cannot definitively tell you that Zenith was killed for a role read. I have joined mafia chat in champ games, and left with a significantly lesser opinion of players in there for their night kill choices. So, this is not the worst nightkill I have ever seen, and I don't always have the optimal opinions in mind about nightkills, but I think I usually do. The Zenith kill, almost certainly without a doubt, was a mistake.
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I think my reads today have been very fluid, I think this is another thing that should look good to me. Its... pretty anti-town to just get an idea in your head and plow forward with it. Before I knew the mechanics, I don't think I was ever talking myself out of townreading lewdy. Knowing the mechanics now, he's back on the table, and you can follow this process. I was absolutely convinced it was choof last night up until he started talking about how Xiz should livestream his reaction to his flip, which I don't think is something wolf!choof says as he is rolling over. I don't think lewdy is so happy to be confirmed town when xel claims not vigi in a fake-reaction type of way, it just doesn't really fit him.
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I am going to circle back to Nanook for a moment and talk about something maybe a bit too spicy. Raeko and fg do not like one another. There is drama history there. I think one reason Nanook might be mentally checked out at the beginning of the game would be because his two partners are openly fighting in wolfchat. I think this is a very plausible scenario.
I am not killing xiz ever, obviously
I am townreading bolth and freezin for a long time (still freezin over bolth fwiw, he was in self-pres mode on d1 but I think he's said a lot of townie things ever since)
I am townreading plop for some stuff that I maybe shouldn't, specifically how he was very convinced that I was trying to distance from raeko, but has slowly backed off of it.
I think lewdy is probably next, solely because I think some of his reactions really only come from someone with a little bit more self-awareness than he has in TWG at this point in his career.
I don't want to reward choof too much for rolling over, and I will never cry if he dies, so wayward is next. He's doing a lot of poking/prodding that I think is mostly just a good look here. I wish he would talk more about his townreads is my only complaint about his rereads.
I am putting xel here because I am giving xel another night phase, and that's the only reason.
This leaves choof, who I think has been a tiny bit townie in his self-deprecation today, and fg.
I think fg fits the most puzzle pieces. It (both only partially and potentially) explains why Nanook didn't have higher motivation as scum. I think literally everyone else aside from Xel who I just talked about has been townier today or earlier, so I want to kill fg.
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Dunno how much this helps, some of it is definitely spaghetti.