Uhm... if deemed needed, I'll list who like to be invisible... as I have the advantage of knowing who they are. Not that this is a big advantage.
On the front of Mini... let me expand for you Talisman (plus, this most certainly does not get you off the hook)... this is the full convo I had with Iggy, where I go on to explain things in more detail for him:
iggy911mc: glad to see that you've considered mini and talis lynch prospects XD
*** Auto-response sent to iggy911mc: Arcade games with rankings!
http://www.ffrcade.com
TasselFoot: why
iggy911mc: sarcasm mostly, ive been talking about them day 1 and 2
TasselFoot: oh. i don't think mini is a wolf at all.
iggy911mc: and no one has really said anything about it (cept on mini but it was for other reasonings)
TasselFoot: my reasons for wanting him lynched were purely statistically related
iggy911mc: well if he lives we still have 2 days left right? and if one of those days he dies, then we get another day, is that how it works?
TasselFoot: no.
TasselFoot: we have 2 days left, no matter what. his 2nd phantom single-handedly cost us a lynch.
TasselFoot: if somehow he gets wolfed, then we get that lynch back.
iggy911mc: so since we're dead after 2 days anyways why waste the lynch?
TasselFoot: did you not read my convo with blah?
TasselFoot: i hate having to repeat myself
iggy911mc: i did but didnt commit it to memory
iggy911mc: ill check it dont worry XD
TasselFoot: well this is a rather important thing to remember, if you're going to ask me about it
TasselFoot: PLUS it directly effects the game in a major way.
iggy911mc: ok so u refer to the percentage part yes? bc im not seeing what ur meaning
TasselFoot: yes.
TasselFoot: statistics would say that we lynch mini today so that we have the day 4/5 lynches to work with instead of the day 3/4 lynches.
TasselFoot: since we have more information to work with on days 4/5 than days 3/4
TasselFoot: the more i think about it, the more i know i'm correct that lynching mini today is the correct play.
iggy911mc: thats a good point but why not wait until tomorrow only bc then another person will be wolfed (raises percentage)
iggy911mc: but u would HAVE to get him that day or game over
TasselFoot: why wait until tomorrow? did you completely ignore what i just said.
TasselFoot: today is day 3. we have more information to make a correct lynch on day 4 than on day 3.
TasselFoot: day 3 has the least info to work with of the 3 remaining lynches (minimum).
TasselFoot: so therefore, if a lynch is going to be wasted... which it is... then it should be day 3.
TasselFoot: here is an example:
iggy911mc: ok i got it
TasselFoot: you have 10 people... and have to go 10 miles in 1 hour. only, 1 of the 10 is wounded. would you kill him now, so that the remaining 9 can make it the 10 miles in 1 hour? or wait 30 minutes to see if the guy can tough it out, only to realize he can't and kill him then.
iggy911mc: but i guess i was just thinking that since everybody is all over the place that after night 3 wolf we would find a wolf better but i see what your saying now
TasselFoot: so killing the guy now is day 3. killing him after 30 minutes is day 4. and not killing him is day 5... only if you DON'T kill him, you KNOW you won't make it and therefore all 10 die.
TasselFoot: since i'm fairly confident that the humans are ****ed (and i have been since day 1... blah and i discussed this over dinner)... i'm considering things in a fairly negative perspective.
TasselFoot: that of that we WON'T lynch a wolf in the next 2 lynches... or if we do, it will be a big part of luck.
TasselFoot: but the best chance of getting lucky will be on day 5.
TasselFoot: when it will likely be 4 humans and 3 wolves.
TasselFoot: all make sense now?
iggy911mc: yes
iggy911mc: sooo i guess my next question is why havent you voted him yet?
TasselFoot: check the thread
iggy911mc: lol owned
iggy911mc: but hey ill drink to that post
*** "iggy911mc" signed off at Tue Apr 04 00:11:22 2006.
If you already understand why you should kill Mini today, then ignore the above convo (haha, sucks for you if you've already read it). If you don't understand why you should kill Mini... go back and re-read the convo and every post I've made to explain why he should be killed. If it does not make logical sense to you at this point, you should be kicked in the testicles.
Also, nobody can deny the fact that my logic is correct, and therefore, Mini MUST be lynched today to best secure a human victory. The only way this doesn't hold true is if we think the angel will get a guard OR mini will get wolfed. I don't hold either of those at a very high percentage.