[Litodude]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

peeked litodude vanilla green last night

balance of probability says the vigi is dead, but it could be a wolf

Hahaha you mother fucker.


I was waiting for host to send me PM of the random d1 vanilla human check on my seer power, and I was able to get it a couple hours ago. Unfortunately I was on a date.

Here was what I was writing earlier today:

because of the randomness of the roles and their effects...wolves would not be able to risk claiming a role. thus, first mover advantage actually falls to a human PR coming out: because a lack of specificity in the roles that are implemeted, a wolf cannot openly claim a role specifically because they do not know which exists.

honestly speaking, mathematically, it wouldn't make sense to have 6 wolves if I was designing I game...i'd probably leave even 1 out. is that a safe asusmption to make? that assumption would mean that wolves know they cannot guess a role, because the alliance of X many wolves means there are also an unknown amount of human PRs. this means wolves cannot claim a role.

So, V. the statement you just made a couple things clear about my hypothesis:

1. you don't know how many PRs there are because you did not explicitly say what role you are trying to be: based on your statement of 'peeking' me, you /could/ be greenmaster, or the seer.

unfortunately you fucked up with that guess.

2. there are not 6 wolves. and a wolf might be dead

3. you took the risk but it didn't pay off


thought i didn't get to claim first-mover advantage and announcing i'm seer, i originally was going to write this:

coming out with being seer?? maybe

i am the seer.

approx 2-3 hours before end of day phase, if no other person claims seer, come out with your roles. it is ostensibly harder for wolves to fake every single role within the time constraint, and that works for our benefit

if there is a counter-seer claim, kill us both. but this will be unlikely because host constraint of random PRs also dictate that wolves have no idea if that peson is lying. a green could also fake a role but that would be fuckin dumb nd would confuse alliance plus green = inactive

so now with you incorrectly peeking my color, that begs the question on 3: why did you take a risk?

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

balance of probability says the vigi is dead, but it could be a wolf

ah. that's right. the only 2 other red flips are sabo and 2x cross. meaning either of the two strongest wolf PRs you have are gone. you /have/ to take the risk. because the risk is also mitigated if one of the wolves accidentally died, because 2b. is in effect. wolves are strong enough now to make the power move, right?


You're going the fuck down Alec.