[Precarious]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

AragakiAyase was discovered dead, with a single arrow lodged between their eyes.

AragakiAyase's Role PM is as follows:

AragakiAyase, you are Rolf. You are a child who has joined the Greil Mercenaries as a budding Archer. Your inexperience often shows, both in camp as well as on the battlefield.
You are too young to know much, and are vanilla town.
Not included in initial PM: Rolf has a Loved Modifier.

Several things here. Does "Not included in initial PM" mean AA was unaware of his own modifier? If this is the case, then there may be personal and global effects that we're not aware of. Not much that can be done about that, but it's worth keeping in the back of our minds.

More to the point: it's highly likely that AA was killed by a wolf (although this speaks to the inexperience of the wolves if so; a wolf daykill is more dangerous if saved, as it can collapse a LYLO situation into an instant loss). Now, while dayvig roles are fairly common (at least in other mafia communities, I can't speak for custom here), wolf daykills are much rarer, and anonymous wolf daykills are unheard of (precisely because they're so powerful and balance-breaking). That suggests that an item was used, and as has been pointed out, item sharing and corpse looting are not in effect. It's possible that this was planned, then, but given the Paz claim, it's likely that the wolves were caught off guard by the lack of an AA death. That means AA's content on both days (but especially today) probably points to a wolf or wolves.

There is one other possibility, though. Can a vanilla town player still have an item? It's worth noting that AA was an archer, and died via an arrow shot. I would argue it's possible that he was otherwise vanilla, but possessed a shot that somehow was reflected back at him, either by item or ability (I'm not familiar enough with FE to identify a cross-mechanic for this--a physical shield? A reflect spell?).