[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Precarious

On reading through (in my case, it wasn't in real time, so the time proximity of the posts didn't really register), I saw it less as hard baiting and more as shitposting, since no one (Charu or anyone else) would actually reply to "are you a wolf" with anything other than sarcasm. It's actually more concerning to me that Haku defended those posts as baiting rather than the posts themselves, because they had no chance to actually a catch a wolf. It's like trying to fish with nothing on the hook.

After typing this and seeing what happened in thread before actually posting, I see Haku kind of admitted that it was shitposting, then suggested the questions were legitimate. The point remains; the reaction was overdefensive (and Haku later even overdefended further by trying to play Gradiant's original concern as justified). The finally admitting to the segment just being shitposting, by contrast, is a better look.

***

As to Charu, I'll just reiterate again that it's extremely unlikely that he's anything other than what he's already claimed, because there's no payoff if he's a wolf or a serial killer. As soon as he's counterclaimed, his best case scenario is that the other person is mis/lynched first. If they flip bodyguard/asceticizer, then Charu would be unquestionably lynched the next day. It's not worth it for the wolves to trade a player (it very very rarely is), and it's suicide for the serial killer if he's counterclaimed on day 3 or earlier.

From the perspective of actual having that role, it was the right move for him to actually claim imo. The value of a confirmed townie is limited normally, because they're likely to be killed before end game, and its effect on the player pool is most limited early in the game (when there are the most players). However, Charu wouldn't be a normal confirmed townie; he's also bulletproof, which means that end game value is there so long as he isn't killed while bodyguarding. The loss of Charu as a possible night target is outweighed by his confirmation.

Originally Posted by Precarious

I'm going to state that, for the purposes of how I proceed, I'm considering Charu confirmed. Here's why.

If he is anything, anything, other than what he says he is, it will negatively impact him and/or his team. There is no way around this, barring sheer apathy by his actual counterpart.

Without bothering to separate the scenarios by other town/wolf/serial killer, let's examine what would happen if Charu is lying.

If Charu is lyhing, then there is an actual bodyguard or asceticizer out there. They have two options, to claim or not to claim.

If they claim, then Charu and the counterclaimant are caught in a binary. We know that at least one them is lying, so we'll no doubt immediately lynch one of them. If Charu is actually VT, we at best lose Charu (if he's lynched first), and at worst lose both the B/A and VT Charu. If Charu is actually a wolf, the wolves at best trade one-for-one (which doesn't make sense considering our advantages in numbers; killing a wolf is more valuable than losing a townie, particularly when the townie is non-investigatory) and at worst lose a wolf with literally no gain. If Charu is actually the serial killer, this gambit will lose him the game. According to the link, the SK needs to kill four people to win. At one kill per night, that means the SK needs to survive into night 4. While this claim might protect from chance wolf attacks, if counterclaimed on D3 or earlier, the binary will resolve itself by D4 at the latest, preventing Charu from possibly achieving his win condition.

Now, what if the actual B/A is reluctant to show himself yet, unwilling to risk the ~50% chance of lynch? Well, it's unlikely that they'd be dumb enough not to claim by D3, and really it would be a pro-town move to do so even now, since again a one-for-one tradeoff (and that's the worst case scenario) favors town. But even if they die by mischance (unrelated lynch or night death--how the night death happens would obviously differ depending on B or A), we have full role flips at death. We would be notified that so and so is a B/A, at which point Charu would be fully caught in his lie, and lynched asap.

There are scenarios where it makes sense for an antitown player to fake claim, but doing so where there's an explicit binary situation immediately available is usually not one of them. I'm counting Charu as confirmed town because it would be idiotic for him to do this if he's not actually a bodyguard. After all, if he's not, the real B/A will call him out, either now, or in a day or two.

precarious can you produce actual reads instead of making raw commentary?