[FictionJunction]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

okay so let's break this down from a bayesian perspective

there's a 10% chance that zenith was randed on the surface layer

so that leaves in the 90% chance that he wasn't randed a chance that he was figured out. after he died i reviewed the thread and found multiple breadcrumbs that justified his death and made it obvious manti was lock-cleared and it took my like 10 minutes to come to that conclusion.

i literally opened with the fact that manti was cleared. is jrodd downplaying it, really? this sounds like a serving of hot bullshit.

i'm wondering if it's a servign of hot bullshit because you're just too fucking lazy to view the thread or if it's a serving of hot bullshit because you're inept/

Yeah maybe I'm really bad because it didn't jump at me - surely as great twig players you'll notice that what I'm interested in is convenience and if we all publicly admit or claim that we knew that zenith was probably blue before he got killed we're literally prohibiting ourselves from pointing the finger at people who are pushing this idea forward. And perhaps everyone did notice and perhaps that's why he is dead.

All I know is that the player who found out zenith was blue by reading his posts is red and anyone who makes it sound like it was super obvious is trying to maki it difficult to narrow down there people who would've noticed that by claiming everyone could have.

I don't think everyone did. You're downplaying it by saying it was so obvious anyone could have found out. It's basically the only real tangible, touched-and-directly-influenced-by-a-red lead we've got