So uh, it was interesting that, D1, two of the wolves had votes on each other rather than on V. Not counting V's vote, V had five people on him (blind, cedo, psycho, Dab, Charu) and seven off (Xiz, Gradiant Plop, Xel, sunfan, swirl, Silvuh). In D2, I was thinking the wolves would want to kill from the group with the fewest wolves in it, so they would maximize their buffer if we tore into one group. However, a majority of the wolves were in the larger group that didn't vote for V, and Gradiant and Walking Target iluswirl were both in that group. Soo uh, that was totally wrong.
It does make sense now if the wolves hit Gradiant because they took the "blue looks good on me" post seriously. If that's the case, it's likely the SK targeted a protected iluswirl. And if Gradiant was hit by a wolf, and we actually have a blocker, then that person would be able to come out with the identity of the SK. But again, because they didn't block the SK again N2, we more likely have a doctor if we assume Gradiant was hit by the wolves.
... And if we assume the wolves and SK didn't hit the same target, which I keep forgetting is a thing that can happen. If the wolves were blue-hunting and the SK was wolf-hunting (as seen in the N2 kill), neither of them would have targeted iluswirl N1, so ... I feel like I'm back at square one. I would have put money (not literally) on CCMDTTT, but now I'm not so sure.
Anyway. Four of the people who ended with votes on V are still alive (blind, cedo, dab, Charu), and four who didn't are (Plop, Xel, swirl, Silvuh), and swirl's confirmed green, so ... Hm. How often does it happen that a lynch occurs without a single wolf on the person?
TWG CXVIII
D1: two wolves on lynch, one off (13 players, 7 to insta)
D2: two wolevs on lynch, one off (11 players, 6 to insta)
D3: two wolves on lynch, one off (9 players, 5 to insta)
D4: two wolves on lynch, one abstain (7 players, 4 to insta)
TWG CXVII
D0: two wolves on lynch, one off (13 players, 6 votes)
D1: one wolf on lynch, two abstain (11 players, 6 to insta)
D2: two wolves on lynch, one abstain (9 players, 5 to insta, wolf lynched)
D3: one wolf off lynch, one abstain (7 players, 3 votes, wolf lynched)
D4: lone wolf on lynch (5 players, 3 to insta)
TWG CXVI
D1: all three wolves on lynch (10 players, 6 to insta)
D2: one wolf on lynch, one wolf off (7 players, 4 to isnta)
D3: two wolves on lynch for the win (5 players, 3 to insta)
And a C9++ to compare to:
TWG CXI
D1: all three wolves off lynch (13 players, 6 votes, wolf lynched)
D2: one wolf on lynch, one off (9 players, 5 to insta)
D3: one wolf off lynch, one abstain (6 players, 2 votes, wolf lynched)
... Not very often, especially not when it's a green/blue who's lynched. Small sample size and a convenient sample, so I fail as a statistician, but yeah.
So uh. Likely wolf in blind, cedo, Dab, Charu. If cedo's town and just managed to convince enough townies to lynch another town, welp. But Dab's vote was so fishy it hurts. A VT wouldn't benefit from acting so obviously suspicious. No idea where the SK is because I'm dumb and spent all that time looking through old logs rather than through the interactions in this thread.
So we have two non-aligned scum left out of eight, insta at 5, so I'm not in danger of screwing this up if I leave a vote on
DaBackPack, which is where I want it to be for now.
This phase ends at 3 CST, so I need to get out of bed at least like two hours earlier. Setting an alarm. If for some reason I'm unable to get out of bed, you'll need five out of seven players present for an insta, so uh, the rest of the town would have to agree or one scum will have to vote another with four of the town so we can get a good lynch. This being if my vote's not on scum right now. Anyway. Sleep time. Sorry I'll be back so late.