[Cavernio]

Originally Posted by leonid

This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.

The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen

If what you're trying to get at is a game you must win at any cost, then I don't think you're giving good enough incentive or disincentive.

Some people are just careless. Some people have like 100$ to their name and would gamble with really low odds. Some gambling addicts basically do this as par for the course. Some people with a lot of money might really want double that money to start up a business or something and they're highly driven to get MORE but don't really care one way or the other if they have less. Someone who's manic at the point in time of making the choice is likely to set a lower limit. On the flip side someone who's totally depressed and has little/no sense of self preservation could set that really low too.

I just don't see the answers you're getting would be good representations of people's internal views of probability but more of, say, their mental health and status in society.