05-7-2005, 12:45 PM
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#43
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FFR Hall of Fame
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Houston
Posts: 3,428
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Okay guys, this 'which cup has the poison' debate has some merit, and please, can we call it Sicilian reasoning.
Here's how we can break the logical process tree down.
The humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass
The wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass
therefore, the wolves do not choose Tass.
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On a two-level logic chain:
The humans think that the wolves think that the humans think the most obvious choice for the wolves is Tass
Therefore the wolves move down a tier to make their selection.
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Now we must ask, do the wolves believe that the humans would follow this reasoning this far? If so:
The wolves think that the humans think that the wolves would not choose Tass, rather they would choose a next tier player.
Therefore the wolves can either choose Tass or choose a below-next tier player.
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The question is, did the wolves think all the way to the 3rd branch of the logic chain or the second? I would wager to say they followed to the second. Following a sicilian chain to the 3rd branch is not common, I see these same conjectures all the time in poker as a 'what does my opponent think that I think he has' type of argument, and I must rarely think my decision all the way out to the 3rd branch.
Therefore, I will wager to say that the wolves either chose Tasselfoot or a next-tier player as their Master Wolf.
The logical pool of players for Master Wolf is: Tasselfoot, blah, Kefit, chardish, alain, and aperson. This pool was created by Jursey and Tasselfoot.
Therefore, seeing any of these players is dangerous as a return of human is not definitive.
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