Quote:
Originally Posted by devonin
See, this is exactly what Rubix was talking about. You already know you don't give a damn, so there's no odds at all. The chances you give a damn are 0 in 1. The chances that you don't give a damn are 1 in 1.
|
This assumes his mind was made up from the start. Prior to having clicked the link or viewing the video, there is a chance it would have interested him. After having clicked the link or viewing the video, he concluded it did not interest him. Chances after the fact are always 100% in the direction of whatever actually happened. There is a 100% chance after I post this that I would have posted it. Prior to my actual posting, this could not be guaranteed.
---
Mr Rubix, how can you ensure with 100% certainty, even with a few million, that you will have a biological child and that your child will become a Nobel prize winner?
---
About the car: How in the world would you maintain this thing even if you did own it? Surely it must have entirely specialized and/or hard to get parts. I imagine these to be quite difficult to replace, even assuming money was not a factor.
About the advertisement: It's a perfect advertisement. Statistics, without further backing, are mostly meaningless anyhow since they can be manipulated in almost any form or fashion. Manipulation is inherent in the field of advertisement. In any case, this is a perfect advertisement because it caters towards its target audience which would be the group of ridiculously wealthy, and it manipulates them to want it, by appeal to an innate desire for scarcity and an implicit "special" quality. What I mean by special is it makes them feel as though they are somehow more noble or more worthy the more "fate" smiles on them. So if the odds are low, surely, a potential buyer is led to believe, if I have this car, I am a rare one indeed, and also a better person because of it! It's all in the manipulation of the target audience.