Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

You can only bet once, and you will bet all your savings, your house, and basically everything that belongs to you, in dollars.
ofc you get disqualified if your net value is negative

If you win, you get back double your bet.

If you lose, you get nothing.

What's the lowest chance of winning that you will accept and play this gamble for, and why?

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

100% fuck that shit

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I'm a Las Vegas native.

I know what gambling does to people, leonid.

and to have you make light of it just makes me sick.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

I will prolly go for 95% or something

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

does this have to do with some new google service you're working on because i don't like where this is going

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

new yt feature, double your views or get all your videos deleted

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

70%

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

t͈̤̤̗̦̘͢h̨̥̺̦̭i̥s̤̪͡ ̛i̶̲s̩̪̙̻̮̭ ̗̜j̸̠̠̯̹ú̘st̜͈̬͟ͅ ͎̟͙̩ṭhe͎̘ͅ ͏͕̖͍̰b̮͉͙̤e̥̙̩̬g̡͙̺͕̬̼͙͔i̶n͔̝̤͠n̩̘͉̲in̦̣͇͈̳g̴̯̪͇͇̗̺

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

nope but I do like how people relate to google every single thing I do

it's like i'm a walking google

in fact i'm a mere engineer that can be replaced any time

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

100%, hands down (pardon the pun). This simply isn't a bet I could take.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Nope, never.

I've seen roulette wheels spin the same colour 20+ times in a row and a bunch of other bullshit at casinos, fuck probability.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

101%

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

It would have to be pretty dang high (in the 90%s, I think). I could recover from losing all my monetary assets, but I really really wouldn't want to have to.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Edit: misread the question

I'll say 99.99%

If this were one time that is. Iterated version would go higher obv.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

The numbers are kind of arbitrary, but having no wealth would be about 20 times worse than having as much wealth as I have now; having twice as much wealth as I have now would be about 1.5 times better. So no wealth would be a loss of 19, and double wealth would be a gain of .5

.5 * x > 19 * (100-x) where 'x' is the chance of winning
approximately 97.4%

The % you'd reasonably be willing to accept depends on how much you value the change in wealth to no wealth and wealth to double wealth.

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

It depends on your utility curve and where the different states fall

Shit is cray

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

can you explain what you mean in layman's terms

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.

The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

:confused: obviously 100% for anyone then

you can only be 99% confident that you'll win if you win 99% of the time

Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
 

Why do people always overthink my questions
is it because my avatar is a robot